The stage is set for a brilliant conclusion to the Masters, where Rory McIlroy has surrendered a six-shot lead but still heads the betting. Ben Coley has the preview.
Golf betting tips: The Masters round four
3pts Fleetwood and Scheffler to win their two-balls at 11/8 (bet365)
1pt McNealy and Hovland to win their two-balls at 14/5 (General)
1pt four-fold the above selections at 8/1 (bet365)
And like that, it was gone.
Rory McIlroy's record six-shot halfway lead in the Masters didn't make it through Amen Corner as Cameron Young, despite a big mishap there of his own, reeled him in. On a day of low scoring – on average almost exactly four shots lower than Thursday – McIlroy never looked at ease despite driving the ball much better than he had over the first two rounds.
For a long time he held firm and good putts at four, six, seven and 10 first kept his head above water and then got him under-par for the day, but McIlroy made the cardinal sin at 11 and came up short and left, his putter unable to rescue him this time. Double-bogey there, bogey at the 12th when this time long and left, par at the 13th, and he was even briefly behind.
Young's round owed a little to fortune – there were at least three tee-shots which either struck or brushed trees and at the 13th in particular he might've been spared as many as two or three shots as a consequence. Still, perhaps this is the sort of luck you deserve when you've battled back form four-over through seven holes in round one. Out in 40 and seemingly out of the tournament, he's fought back resolutely.
Players champion versus defending champion, tied on 11-under, is therefore our final group and given that we're talking an all-time great and arguably the most improved elite player of the past nine months, most will feel that the winner come from it. Generally that is what happens in the Masters, where players who get that far tend to be exceptional, and these two most certainly are.
Sam Burns though impressed me in sticking around, beating McIlroy comfortably from the final group on Saturday and sticking within one. It might've been better for Burns, who missed good chances at holes 14 and 15, but there can be no complaints really after a series of good putts to keep him moving forward early in the round, especially at the third but also the sixth.
He's a bit of a curious one as most would agree it's been a disappointing three years since he last won on the PGA Tour, yet when he was winning, he was known for having failed to translate that to major championships. Now, he isn't winning, but from the Open in 2024 to the US Open in 2025 and now the Masters in 2026, he's giving himself frequent chances to end the drought on the biggest stages of them all.
He'll play with Shane Lowry and while grading players on how much they'd like to win the Masters would ordinarily seem a bit silly, we might make an exception here. It's all Lowry's thought about all week, telling reporters how much he'd love to spend the rest of his life returning to Augusta with his friend, McIlroy. Might the idea of receiving a Green Jacket from the man himself inspire Lowry in the same way Portrush did?
With world number one Scottie Scheffler just four back after a 65 it's all now fascinating and we could be set for one of the great final rounds; different from last year in its historical significance, yes, but less binary in range of outcomes. No longer is this a question of 'will McIlroy win?' but instead 'who will win?' and I don't have the answer, except to say at the prices my preference would be for Young.
It amazes me how much confidence, self-belief, really does matter in elite golf and Young's is soaring. He spoke like someone totally at ease with his situation on Saturday night and, counterintuitively, McIlroy seemed to me to be more on edge. I thought he'd go on and win this thing comfortably, but there was too much talk of how he's no longer under pressure. He looked it – there's still a major championship to be won.
Young to become the third straight winner of The Players to add the Masters a month later is the call, but I'm in no rush to be taking 9/4.
For my pre-tournament bets it was a rough third round as Tommy Fleetwood, who would surely have preferred tougher conditions, the most disappointing of all contenders. He now needs to be among the lowest scorers today to hit the frame and while that's possible, I'd hoped we were set to enjoy a decent week with him cruising to a top-eight finish and winners from the specials preview.
On the latter, Ben Griffin is into the lead among the debutants and just shy of 2/1 to finish the job, which would give us about 15 points' profit from that preview with Charl Schwartzel already having done his bit. And there will I hope be readers who are on Burns at huge prices antepost, so we've some interest in the business end of the tournament too. Still, there's no getting away from the fact that the outright preview looks unlikely to turn a profit now and that's the one that really counts.
Best two-ball bets for Sunday's final round
I do expect FLEETWOOD to bounce back though and he's the pick of the two-balls against Tyrrell Hatton, whose overall balance of form was poor coming in. He was exceptional on Friday but reverted to type on Saturday and there are two further factors: that Fleetwood was a bit unfortunate, which I certainly felt was the case, and how good he is at responding to adversity, keeping his head up, and going again.
That's why he's built up such a formidable record in majors and how he plays on Sunday could set him up for three massive ones to come, two at courses where he's gone close before and a third close to his childhood home. Fleetwood will dust himself down and I rate him among the bankers along with SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER, who ought to account for Haotong Li.
There's a fun backstory here as the pair shared an amusing text message exchange as Haotong pursued a practice round with Scheffler after they were paired together in the final round of the Open last year. There, Scheffler went on to win the tournament comfortably and was in control of the two-ball early, and I doubt I'm telling you anything you don't know in suggesting a repeat is overwhelmingly likely.
Scheffler was back to his imperious best in a third-round 65 and with Haotong still having potential to run out of steam following his illness on Thursday night, I don't mind taking short prices to nudge us the right side of even-money for a closing double.
Among the earlier options, Jordan Spieth is as capable as just about anyone of going low on Masters Sunday and can account for Brian Harman if the putter warms up, but that's a big if after the way he putted in Texas and has done here at times.
Preference then is to trot out VIKTOR HOVLAND and MAVERICK MCNEALY again for a 14/5 double, with Hovland given the edge over a still-rusty Justin Thomas having done plenty right this week, and McNealy well capable of dominating against Alex Noren, who has performed better than he usually does here but is still very much vulnerable to a more course-comfortable player.
The four-fold pays 8/1 so let's hope to end on a winning note. Thanks, as ever, for reading, and enjoy what's sure to be a fascinating final round.
Posted at 07:30 BST on 12/04/26
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