Two major champions make Ben Coley's staking plan for the WM Phoenix Open, where Scottie Scheffler is once again the man to beat.
Golf betting tips: Phoenix Open
2pts e.w. Collin Morikawa at 45/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Brooks Koepka at 50/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Sepp Straka at 66/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Sam Stevens at 70/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Johnny Keefer at 100/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
Four years on from his breakthrough PGA Tour win, it feels like the right time to take stock and assess exactly where we are with Scottie Scheffler.
If we call his 28/1 playoff win Tournament 1, we are now on Tournament 88. He has won 23 of them in total, that's if we include the Olympic Games and a couple of Hero World Challenges, and he's done so at a strike-rate of better than one in four. Those backing him regularly during this period have either won or been desperately unlucky.
As I said on last week’s episode of the podcast I co-host, I understand why some bristle at Tiger Woods comparisons, but who else is there to compare him to? Golf fans – particularly those who are a little older, who grew up fearing and admiring the man in red – have to reckon with this new reality, like it or not, and so do golf bettors.
For a while after Woods, it seemed this would develop into a sport of homogeny; of factory-built, Woods-inspired players who take turns to collect titles. That is not the case. Scheffler is the first truly dominant golfer of the post-Woods era, and there are no signs of this changing anytime soon. The four-time major champion is no tinkerer, no attention seeker, no statesman. As he might put it, he's a family man who just so happens to be the best golfer on Earth.
Now, Scheffler returns to the Phoenix Open having won on his previous start, in a tournament which tries its best to narrow the gap between the best and the rest. TPC Scottsdale helps to accentuate it. This isn’t a great golf course in the purest sense, but it does have some great Tour-course qualities, and chief among them is how it tests ball-striking in a high-pressure environment. It was made for a player like Scheffler.
Of course, even he is not impervious to the forces of this fickle game. Like Woods before him, Scheffler loses more often than he wins, and twice since going back-to-back here he's failed to build on promising positions. Last year, Thomas Detry evidently decided that the best way to shed his bridesmaid reputation was to impersonate Scheffler, which he did in winning by seven. Before him, Nick Taylor beat outsider Charley Hoffman in a play-off, Scheffler again having looked menacing until suddenly he wasn't.
Whoever wins this time, be it Scheffler or someone else, the formula will likely be Scheffler-esque. Ironically, his breakthrough win four years ago is the only instance in recent memory of a champion defying poor approach play numbers (he somehow lost strokes to the field that week); in each of the 2013, 2014, 2017, 2020, 2023 and 2025 renewals, the winner led the field, and in both 2018 and 2021 they ranked second. That's eight of the last 13 and while approach play is fundamental to this sport, it's somehow more fundamental here.
Scottsdale is what you might in simple terms call a ball-strikers' course, where wayward power won't do but nor will nudge-and-nurdle. You have to be able to get on the front foot and take down the three par-fives, all of which are in their own way hazardous, and you have to be able to hit greens throughout. The other surprise champions over the past 15 or so years, Kyle Stanley and Kevin Stadler, were absolute flushers.
If you can't see past Scheffler my advice is don't bet or bet without him, but I'm happy taking him on with COLLIN MORIKAWA.
Yes, that is a remarkable sentence to be writing but in a tournament with so many major champions or habitual major contenders on the roll-of-honour, where we need a level of approach play to match Scheffler's, I think there are actually a load of good reasons to side with him.
First of all, taking each player's absolute best, Morikawa is the closest thing to Scheffler in this field in terms of approach play. Second in 2020, first in 2021, second in 2022, second in 2023, he then dipped markedly in 2024, but last year saw him return to the top three. On that score, it was a successful season as he absolutely needed to restore his key strength.
Secondly, he has some excellent desert form. Based in Las Vegas having grown up in California, that makes sense and it was in the Nevada desert that Morikawa bagged his first PGA Tour title back in 2019. A couple of years later he won in Dubai, and the following season he was runner-up to Rory McIlroy back in Nevada when the CJ Cup was held at The Summit, a course at which he's practiced for a long time.
Certainly it's a positive to be out west, where he won his first major championship, and although a rare visitor to Scottsdale, both appearances have offered promise in the way he's struck the ball. Certainly, his 2020 debut was eye-catching as he led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green, largely thanks to his exceptional approach play, but putted poorly to finish 25th.
Fast forward almost six years and, clearly, Morikawa's career has plateaued. However, I thought his return performance in the Sony Open was just fine as he missed the cut by a single shot, missing a load of putts including from three feet and seven feet across the final three holes.
We're going to need him to do better over short putts, even in an event where so many poor putters have contended before, and there's no denying his putting has been in another prolonged funk. That being said, bermuda greens at the Sony were never going to show Morikawa in his best light and, as demonstrated in both major wins, he's always had the scope to turn things around on the greens without notice.
Right now there really isn't anything tangible to go on in that department but his long-game was fantastic during round two of the Sony, I feel sure this is a better course and certainly preferable conditions, and we're getting bigger prices than I can remember. For my money, his performance in Hawaii was never likely to tell us much about his chances here so I'm glad to be able to take 40/1-plus on the back of it.
Yes, Scheffler is here, but there are a heck of a lot of elite players who are not, including McIlroy and five other players inside DataGolf's top 10.
And for a final, curious bit of encouragement, this event has a long track record of being won by players who struggled on their previous start. That applies to Detry (48th) and Taylor (71st), it applies to Brooks Koepka (MC), Rickie Fowler (66th), Hideki Matsuyama (MC and 33rd), Kevin Stadler (78th), Phil Mickelson (51st), Mark Wilson (61st), Hunter Mahan (64th), Kenny Perry (59th), and it applies to many others before them.
Why? Perhaps because of the stark contrast between this and the other big three west coast events, plus those in Hawaii before them. Phoenix is a totally different course, aesthetically and agronomically, and while the most likely winner is the person who won last time he played (which so happened to also be in the desert), I'm sure we'll again see a load of contenders who haven't been dropping big hints.
I really don't see why Morikawa can't be one of them, having shown promise throughout his final few starts last year including with a closing 63 in Japan and when sitting close to the lead in a couple of FedExCup Playoff events.
Missing the cut by a shot after 10 weeks off isn't a big deal in my book, and I'd refer you to Chris Gotterup (last in the Hero, won the Sony) and Justin Rose (MC in the AmEx, won the Farmers) for further evidence of just how quickly things can change.
Ultimately, when I draw up a list of players who I can reasonably hope might lead this field in strokes-gained approach if Scheffler doesn't, he's at the top, just ahead of Viktor Hovland, who hasn't translated his skill set into anything like a positive performance here so far. Morikawa has, he's a bigger price, and I'll gladly take on board the negatives.
Next, I can't resist taking a chance on BROOKS KOEPKA after definite signs of encouragement last week.
On his dramatic PGA Tour return, Koepka fought hard to make the cut, suffered one of the worst putting days of his career in round three, and ended up ranking 11th in strokes-gained tee-to-green despite finishing outside the top 50.
Having been absent since October there was plenty to like about the way he hit the ball and let's not forget, when we last saw Koepka he was finishing fourth in the Open de France, then 15th in the Dunhill Links, which was shortened to 54 holes. Koepka started quite slowly in Scotland but played well over the final two rounds to end a difficult year on the front foot.
Before this he was largely poor throughout summer and into autumn but there were reasons for this and I really won't be at all surprised if he's a winner again this year. In the past, Koepka hasn't prioritised PGA Tour events but, having been away for four seasons on the LIV Golf circuit, I suspect he'll be desperate to take every opportunity he can.
Remember, he's not in the Signature Events on the PGA Tour and will need to finish solo third or better to have a chance of getting into the field at Riviera next week, or else he'll have only one more crack at making it into the field for Bay Hill, so there's really no scope for Koepka to revert to his previously successful 'majors first, the rest nowhere' approach.
Besides, that was never the case here anyway. Phoenix was the scene of his first PGA Tour win and then, in 2021, he won this title again, despite having started that season with two missed cuts. We were on that week at about 45/1, the argument being that he'd hit the ball well at a course he doesn't enjoy in the Farmers, and I'm happy to regurgitate it here in the hope of a repeat.
Third a year later as defending champion before leaving the PGA Tour, he loves Scottsdale and that includes greens he can read, unlike those at Torrey Pines. So far, Koepka has gained strokes on every visit and if that remains the case come Sunday, nobody should be surprised to see his name high up this leaderboard.
Jordan Spieth might have been next but for the risk some readers figured they must've found an old preview of a past Phoenix Open, but in fairness to Spieth he'd likely have played well in it. So far he has six top-10s in nine course starts, including when beginning a career renaissance in 2021, plus in each of the last three years.
He returned from a long break with some bad golf in the Hero Challenge but was better after Christmas in the Sony Open, although the price looks short enough. For reference, he was twice the odds of Morikawa and there wasn't all that much between them, which reaffirms my view that there's been an overreaction regarding the latter.
I'd rather side with SEPP STRAKA, anyway.
He's also played twice after an absence and his form is the reverse, with third place in the Hero (21 strokes ahead of Spieth) followed by a missed cut as defending champion in the AmEx.
Straka played terribly over the first two rounds of that event but his third round, at the tougher Stadium Course, was among the best in the field. It saw a return to his high-class ball-striking and a few putts dropped too, so it gives us something to work with. In fact it means five of his seven rounds since returning from a long break have been very good, as he was in the mix all week in the Bahamas.
His latest Phoenix Open start also offers hope as he got better as the week progressed for 15th place last year, ranking third in strokes-gained approach, and with his earlier AmEx victory giving us some notable desert form, Straka has a likeable profile for this.
Straka didn't do himself justice in the Ryder Cup but before that had won twice in 2025, he looked for a long time like he'd win again in the Hero, and if he putts as well as he did in the Bahamas then he could be a massive player here in Phoenix.
He's a major-proven, two-time Ryder Cup player with now four PGA Tour wins to his name, and as a top-notch ball-striker his name would fit right in among the list of Phoenix champions with broadly similar games.
I've always felt that logic could apply to Corey Conners, whose two wins so far both came in the Texas desert, but that's proven unfounded and I'm happy giving that project up, with the four Danish players all making more appeal.
Nicolai and Rasmus Hojgaard could have a competitive brotherly battle this week, with little between them, while Thorbjorn Olesen is hitting the ball well and Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen should relish this test. With course experience in favour of the twins they probably have the edge and picking between them isn't easy, with Rasmus boasting the better recent form but Nicolai a superior iron player at the moment.
On balance though I'd rather stick with SAM STEVENS, who has drifted out to a nice price despite another solid display at Torrey Pines.
This powerful driver is producing excellent tee-to-green numbers right now, largely because his approach play has improved. It had been holding him back but form figures of 7-31-6-30 are a reflection of four improved displays with his irons.
Off the tee he remains excellent, ranking inside the top 10 in three of these four starts, so everything seems to be coming together for a top talent who is among the best maidens around along with Michael Thorbjornsen and Pierceson Coody.
They're both respected but Stevens has the edge on course form and experience, carding seven rounds of par or better here, the first four enough for T28 on debut (alongside Detry) and three more helping him overcome a slow start last year. No doubt that was a bit of a hangover from contending in tough conditions a week earlier.
Stevens has produced this without good approach play so there's scope for significant improvement, and a wider look at his record in the desert bodes well. He's been runner-up close to home in San Antonio, third behind Scheffler at Craig Ranch, has rounds of 64 and 65 at Summerlin, and most recently was sixth at PGA West, again behind Scheffler, just a fortnight ago.
And whereas Tony Finau did more last week (11th), remember Finau was playing his favourite course on the PGA Tour, without Scheffler, with one of the favourites ill, and we could take 150/1. Now, having only extended an impeccable record at Torrey Pines, he's a much shorter price at a course where he's been second once but has also missed five cuts in seven visits.
Stevens wasn't far behind him last week and of the two, both of whom were among my selections there, it's pretty clear to me where the value lies. One player has just about halved in price, the other has almost doubled, so that really is that.
Finally, Korn Ferry Tour standout JOHNNY KEEFER could be ready to take the next step in his career and looks worth chancing at 100/1.
Keefer has powered through the grades to get to the PGA Tour, winning on the PGA Tour Americas and then twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last year. As it happens, the second of those came at the same course where Scheffler earned his first pro win back in 2019.
Long off the tee but accurate with it, already we're seeing Keefer demonstrate high-class ball-striking and that was very much the case at Torrey Pines last week, where he ranked third in strokes-gained off-the-tee and was very good with his approaches with the exception of a tough third round.
Before this he'd been 27th in the AmEx, a nice desert warm-up, and that came courtesy of being the fourth-best iron player in the field over the two measured rounds at the Stadium Course, where he broke 70 both times.
More is needed on the greens but while he spent a few years in California as a youngster, moving away from those bumpy surfaces at Torrey Pines is no bad thing and really, most of his golfing education took place in San Antonio, Texas, where he still lives.
I'm sure many will have him pegged for the Texas Open as a result but this is a similar test, and one I see as potentially very suitable. So, while keen for the most part to focus on Scottsdale experience, I'll make an exception and hope that Keefer can emulate the likes of Koepka and Stanley by winning here on debut.
Posted at 11:00 GMT on 03/02/26
More golf content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.