Rory McIlroy can win the BMW PGA Championship according to Ben Coley, who also has some big-priced selections for Wentworth.
Golf betting tips: BMW PGA Championship
5pts win Rory McIlroy at 10/1 (bet365 - 12.0 Betfair Exchange)
2pts e.w. Justin Rose at 33/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Angel Ayora at 75/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Daniel Hillier at 75/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Laurie Canter at 80/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
It is hard to think of a better time for European golf than the one we are in right now. Europe holds the Solheim Cup again, as it does the Ryder Cup. Great Britain and Ireland somehow won the Walker Cup. Europe won more of the men's majors in 2026 than any other continent. And its tour, whose heart still lies in England even if much of the money comes from elsewhere, is thriving.
Not everything is perfect and there are strong rumours that the DP World Tour leadership would like to slow the transfer of its players to the PGA Tour, perhaps cutting the number who earn status via the Race to Dubai in half. But whatever finessing of the ecosystem may be required, step back and look where we are, four years since LIV Golf threatened to swallow this circuit whole.
With LIV connected to a battery-operated life support machine and with a dozen clauses to meet before anyone can fork out for more Duracell, there must surely have been smiles and no shortage of raised glasses in Virginia Water lately. When players from the once Saudi-backed circuit started entering Qualifying School for the DP World Tour, popping up on its satellite tours, Wentworth knew it had won.
That sense of tranquility, of satisfaction at the lie of the land, has been emphasised by a glorious build-up to the BMW PGA Championship, the flagship tournament which should only continue to thrive in the years to come. This is the jewel in the crown, but every step along the road since the Nexo Championship in August has been memorable. That four champions have won on home soil is almost impossibly perfect, Shane Lowry the latest of them and by a breathtaking 11 shots.
Lowry now bids for a double-double: two wins in a row, two at Wentworth. And while his strike-rate, which equates to a win every few years, would suggest that this is asking too much, the course helps. This famous layout, which twists and turns through the Surrey trees, demands the things Lowry does well: control from the tee, precision with the approach, and a good pair of hands when that second shot fails to find its target.
The tournament also tends to go to a player of the highest class. That wasn't always the case, not around the turn of the century for example or again at the beginning of the following decade, but since moving back to September two things have been constant: scoring and the calibre of the champion. Four of the last eight had won a major or would go on to win one, each of them shooting between 17 and 20-under at a course with a nice blend of threat and opportunity.
One factor in favour of Lowry (which isn't to say he's on my radar this time) is that champions tend to have been playing well. Alex Noren completed a run of 1-MC-1 last year, Billy Horschel had been ticking over ahead of both wins, Ryan Fox had been third in Ireland the previous week, Lowry himself had been 12th on the PGA Tour.
Another is that course form stacks up. In fact, in more than two decades you'll only find two players, Fox and Ben An, who hadn't managed a previous top-10 finish here; An couldn't have done as it was his debut, but Fox had been largely quiet. Otherwise, clues have been there and some of them vivid, like a trio of recent champions who'd been runner-up in the previous renewal and the fact that the last two champions had won here before.
There are no real secrets here and with such a strong field in attendance, a high-class winner feels all but assured, which is why I'm of the view that RORY MCILROY is significantly overpriced at 10/1.
Time will tell whether this is a reflection of the way golf markets are evolving but over the last couple of months, I've felt the favourites have often been overpriced. That didn't pay off in the British Masters, but it did on the PGA Tour with Scottie Scheffler, selected three times and beaten by just one player over the course of those three events. He really should've won each of them.
McIlroy made little appeal at 6/1 last week because links golf adds unknowns that ought to have seen him dangled at a bigger price, but now he's been forced out towards 10/1 we simply have to be on board. Yes, that reflects the arrival of a handful of high-class rivals who weren't in Ireland, but he is so much more dangerous at what should be a relatively soft Wentworth, where the weekend forecast is good.
The six-time major champion did take an age to fully get to grips with this place but, much like Augusta, he's done so now. His victory was back in 2014 but he's been runner-up three times since then, losing a play-off two years ago, by a shot to Lowry over 54 holes in 2022, and by two to an inspired Francesco Molinari in 2018.
Had just one more of those gone his way I suspect the layers would've given McIlroy more respect, as they would have had he holed a few putts last week. Thankfully, he didn't: McIlroy ranked 15th off the tee and sixth with his approaches, but his short-game was poor. That helps hide what's actually been an excellent run of high-class ball-striking which suggests his best golf is closer than you may think.
Remember, after third place at Bellerive he was a very popular bet at single-figure prices for the Tour Championship, where he finished fourth. Across these two events he ranked seventh and third respectively off the tee, ninth and seventh with his irons. The latter in particular have not been this good since he was finishing second at Riviera and later went on to win the Masters for a second time in the spring.
It's the quality of his irons which is such a big positive here and it's actually a concern with several rivals, too. Matt Fitzpatrick's have been poor since the Open, Viktor Hovland's were across the final two events of the PGA Tour season, Ludvig Aberg's have cooled since the spring and even Tommy Fleetwood has struggled for consistency in that most fundamental part of his game.
By contrast, McIlroy is dialled in once more so if we get some improvement on greens he tends to putt very well then he ought to go close, his focus surely sharpened by having fallen further behind Patrick Reed in the Race to Dubai, and by having seen his close friend Lowry win the Irish Open on Sunday.
Lowry was the latest home winner in a sequence of them and the fact that McIlroy now lives here in Wentworth (of course, he retains a property in Florida too) is another small boost to the chances of the best player in the field. To my mind the price ought to be what it was last week, because the much more suitable conditions mitigate the increase in quality at the head of this field.
I believe that McIlroy will be desperate to prevent Reed from winning the Race to Dubai and having fallen almost 1,000 points behind, the only way he can pass his longtime rival this week is by winning this tournament. Granted focus and improvements to his short-game which I expect, plus those home comforts, he's not just the man to beat but the clear value call among the favourites.
There's a case for backing McIlroy blind on the rare occasion he hits 9/1 on the DP World Tour. You'd have been lucky to be able to sneak 9/1 for the Open in July, in fact. He's played better since than he was playing before it, yet here we are again. It's a chance that has to be taken readily.
Rose among the thorns
Of course, some of those mentioned may prove the biggest threats along with Jon Rahm, who struck the ball nicely on his return to the DP World Tour last week. Rahm is surely preparing for a year playing full-time on this circuit, unless he can work out an agreement to quicken his return to the PGA Tour, and as with McIlroy I don't think a version of his best is very far away, though persistent slow starts have cost him here in the past.
Two Englishmen look better options than Rahm and I'll select JUSTIN ROSE in preference to Aaron Rai.
The latter has been beaten by a grand sum of six players across the last three renewals of this tournament, doing everything but win it, and returns a major champion. That's a strong case in and of itself and while his form has been largely modest since the PGA Championship, 16th place at a long, soft Bellerive last time could set him up nicely for this much more suitable test.
However, to my eye Rose's form has greater substance to it and the veteran could well follow the likes of Jeff Winther, Scott Jamieson, Joe Dean and Lowry by bringing the house down on home soil.
Like Rai, Rose has done everything but win this title, losing a play-off back in 2007 and finishing second to Luke Donald five years later. It will undoubtably be high on his list of priorities now, likely behind only the majors, and his proven ability to peak for the events he targets is a big part of the appeal.
This year alone, Rose has been 13th at The Players, third at Augusta, 10th behind Rai in the PGA and 11th in the US Open, failing only when under the spotlight at Birkdale, and when last we saw him his game was getting better throughout each of the three tournaments that make up the FedExCup Playoffs.
Rose was a modest 39th when defending his title at Southwind, 22nd at Bellerive and 18th at East Lake, and while the latter came in a field of just 30 players, I felt he showed bags of promise as he had the previous week. Rose's irons in particular have really caught fire, ranking sixth the last twice, and they can again form the bedrock of a strong Wentworth challenge.
It's easy to forget that Rose was in the mix at halfway here last year, as he has been in three of the last six renewals of this tournament, and if his approach play remains as good as it was when we last saw him, I think he might be the one to give local fans something to cheer this weekend.
Alex Fitzpatrick hasn't played well here in the past which is enough of a concern given that he's had three tries now, never breaking 70, and for all that Matt Wallace is at the very top of his game right now, he's generally come unstuck too. In fact this will be a really good test of where Wallace is and how realistic his Ryder Cup ambitions are. Perhaps being left out of a scouting trip to Adare Manor will spark another step forward from him.
The one I really toyed with, however, was JJ Spaun, and as the Betfair Exchange market becomes more liquid he's one you have to consider having a small piece of at the current 65.0 or perhaps even higher should he continue to drift.
Spaun is an ideal type for this course, at least on paper, and as well as Horschel we've seen the likes of Adam Scott, Talor Gooch and Si Woo Kim come and contend for this title since PGA Tour interest in it increased. Strong though this tournament is, it's not as strong as the Signature Events that Spaun has spent much of the year contending in.
The primary issue is that he withdrew from the Tour Championship after five holes but that was with a shoulder complaint which he's had before and, he said at the time, rarely lasts. That he was hitting balls at Wentworth on Monday suggests he's fine and to be frank, the 2025 US Open champion simply doesn't need to be here otherwise.
Should Spaun be fit and firing then he's a live danger who along with Bud Cauley merits respect as a PGA Tour winner this year. Spaun could easily have gone off at 25/1 for this had he arrived in just slightly better form and without those small doubts surrounding his condition. Some loose change has to go his way if you can, whether now or later in the week should those inflated prices hold.
Approach with confidence
It's difficult to know how far down the market to go here and I did consider giving another chance to Kazuma Kobori at twice last week's odds, as he's doing everything well and his lack of firepower off the tee isn't too big a concern.
But it's his compatriot DANIEL HILLIER who I rate a better bet and whereas Kobori's form is still a level below what's required here, Hillier has been edging closer to winning a Rolex Series event like this one for some time now.
The Kiwi ended last year with four top-10s in six and began this one with second place in the Dubai Invitational, soon after which he was fourth in Bahrain to set himself up with a big chance to earn PGA Tour membership via the Race to Dubai.
After winning the New Zealand Open back home, Hillier did go quiet through the spring save for a top-10 finish in Austria but he was an excellent second in the British Masters after the DP World Tour's summer break, perhaps inspired by watching Fox win the Claret Jug from close up – Hillier followed along as part of the gallery on that famous Sunday at Birkdale.
It was pleasing to see Hillier back to his ball-striking best at the Belfry, where he led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green, and we saw more quality from his long-game despite a midfield finish in Ireland last week. Hillier hasn't yet proven to be a particularly effective links golfer and, under less-than-suitable conditions, ranking 12th off the tee and seventh in approach play goes down as hugely encouraging.
The Belfry is much more alike what he'll face here at Wentworth, a point underlined by Noren winning at both courses last year, and while form figures of WD-18-54 don't give him that big course form tick, there's underlying substance to his play. Hillier's eight rounds since withdrawing have been par or better and he putted really poorly last year, the rest of his game seemingly well suited to this test.
We'll have to see if he can get that club warmed up – it's been a problem lately, with the exception of the British Masters – but if he can, Hillier looks a serious each-way player here. There are not many better ball-strikers in the field, that's for sure, and this is a player who can do some damage in the USA if, as I expect him to, he earns the right to play out there.
Hillier is ninth of 10 in the battle for those PGA Tour cards and probably needs around 700 points to seal the deal having been close last year, when just 125 points shy. I think he'll do it and it could well be taken care of this week.
Matteo Manassero has predictably been slashed from a no more than fair opening show and is poor value now, having been advised at close to 300/1 in a weaker field last week, but his compatriot Francesco Molinari is one to consider if you want to side with a classy, former Wentworth champion who has shown signs of promise lately.
Molinari's iron play has been electric on a light schedule this year, seemingly the product of working closely with old coach Denis Pugh again. He was near last in Ireland but that was his first competitive start since the Open almost two months ago and were he to reproduce the ball-striking form he showed at Birkdale (46th) and in Scotland (17th) then he could get competitive again at a course he knows and loves.
I have my doubts as to whether Molinari will be winning at this level again though whereas for LAURIE CANTER, it looks like the next natural step.
Canter's missed cut last week will put some off but, like Hillier, links golf has never been his forte and he's better judged on what came before: seventh, 11th and fifth in the final three events of the LIV Golf season, his best form on that circuit and very similar to the way Tom McKibbin ended the campaign.
These are similar players and while I don't doubt that McKibbin retains his world-class potential, Canter isn't far behind in the here and now yet can be backed at about four times the price, despite being the one who has gone close to winning the BMW PGA Championship.
That was on his debut in 2021 and Canter hasn't been a factor in two tries since, but what he has done is win two DP World Tour titles in the interim. There were positives in last year's display, too, as he climbed more than 80 places up the leaderboard with middle rounds of 67 and 68, which help towards a scoring average of just a fraction over 69.
Throughout three appearances, Canter's approach play has been excellent (+1.32 per round) and, again like McKibbin, he's a powerful driver who is especially effective because he's also accurate. It makes him a good fit for the golf course and missing the cut by a single shot at Doonbeg, following rounds of 74-68, is no concern to me whatsoever.
Canter's second place here five years ago rates a career-best in terms of OWGR points but he's climbed to another level since, he has correlating form in Dubai and Germany, and at the end of last season he almost won the DP World Tour Championship when advised on these pages. Returning to Wentworth, I rate him a good bit higher than others around him in the betting.
Finally, I can't resist having ANGEL AYORA on-side at an inflated price following a missed cut in the Irish Open, where bogey at the final hole would've been enough to advance only for the Spaniard to make double.
One week earlier he'd contended for the European Masters at Crans (fourth) and before that he was inside the top five or six during the final round of the British Masters before a shocking finish, so there's been lots of good stuff from this potential superstar lately.
His irons remain red-hot, he's putting better, and three top-five finishes over his last 10 starts demonstrate that he's getting closer to that first DP World Tour title.
It's a big ask to secure it here but An did so and this similarly impressive ball-striker could follow suit having shown plenty of promise in last year's midfield debut, when his short-game let him down badly. Despite that, Ayora was threatening a top-25 finish before making a complete mess of the 17th hole in the final round.
Ayora has actually been above-average in strokes-gained around the green in both DP World Tour seasons so far and if he does continue holing more than his share, he'll go very close again soon. Rather than wait to see if he can win in Spain next month at 20/1, I want one more crack at odds which might reflect his form, but don't reflect his potential.
He'll realise it soon enough, I remain convinced of that, and where better than to witness the birth of a new European superstar than in its finest tournament. Sign me up for a McIlroy versus Ayora showdown on Sunday, the latter, let's not forget, having said no when LIV came knocking.
Posted at 20:00 BST on 14/09/26
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