Ben Coley has four initial selections for the Irish Open at Doonbeg, headed by Alex Fitzpatrick.
Golf betting tips: Irish Open
2pts e.w. Alex Fitzpatrick at 28/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Sepp Straka at 66/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 - 55/1 Betfred 8 places)
1pt e.w. Haotong Li at 75/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1pt e.w. Kazuma Kobori at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
- Further selections may follow at 8am on Wednesday
The president of the United States is due to fly to Ireland on a jet gifted to him by Qatar this week and it seems that he will end the trip with an appearance at the Irish Open, the second DP World Tour event to take up temporary residence at a course owned by Trump Golf.
Trump will head west from Dublin to Doonbeg, where a golf course originally designed by Greg Norman is part of a resort that was sold off after becoming financially unviable. After Trump Golf swooped to save it from apparent extinction, Doonbeg was given the full treatment by course architect Martin Hawtree (a terrific guy, obviously), the intent being to make it less of a lesser sibling to the great ones on either side.
Part of the reason Doonbeg was not considered architecturally exceptional when first opened in 2002 is... snails. A particular breed of snail, actually, and the need to conserve it. Now, 24 years later, some routing issues smoothed, the snail is why plans for a new ballroom have not yet been completed. Is it too late to look for signs of life where once stood the East Wing of the White House, I wonder?
Doonbeg set to star along with McIlroy
"Doonbeg is a priceless jewel between Lahinch and Ballybunion and one that simply must be played," says top100golfcourses.com, and Hawtree's work has been roundly praised. Where once was a fine piece of land but a golf course which didn't quite do it justice, now lies one of the best in Ireland (although, for balance, highly respected course reviewer Chris Bertram preferred the old design), and it'll be a treat on television.
Doonbeg features five par-threes and five par-fives, but two of those will play as par-fours for some of the best players in the world. Feature holes include the par-three 14th, the shortest on a relatively short course, and there are birdie chances early at the first and third. Conditions will dictate where the real danger lies, but the closing hole is long, uphill, and typically into the wind. It might be a case of make your score over the first 15 then hang on until the clubhouse.
I do sense it'll be scoreable in good weather, though. That's a common theme at most links courses, but these fairways are wider than some, wider than they sometimes appear. Bunkering isn't as severe as Royal Birkdale, either. But about that good weather. It's not that it's forecast to be bad as such, but there's enough breeze and some rain in the current forecast. Watch for how that impacts playability on a classic out-and-in links which runs along the coast.
We don't have much more to go on and most players in this field will be playing Doonbeg for the very first time, but this is pure links golf and that in itself is one of the strongest pointers this sport can offer. Though inherently more volatile than other versions of the game owing to its vulnerability to forces beyond the control of even the best golfers in the world, links has a predictable quality within that: there are those who can do it and those still trying to figure it out.
Take the Open as one example. Ryan Fox was a surprising champion who overcame all kinds of broader trends, but he was also a decorated links golfer already, winner of the Dunhill Links and runner-up in the Irish Open at Ballyliffin. The three Americans who preceded him all had links form, including Brian Harman who had been sixth in the Open prior to the one he won and played well in Scotland the week before. In the post-Covid era, only Collin Morikawa arrived without linksland bona fides.
Pre-Covid, Shane Lowry added a Claret Jug to the Irish Open he'd won as an amateur. Francesco Molinari had flashes of Open form, Henrik Stenson stacks of it. Zach Johnson had two top-10s in three and won narrowly from a former Open champion. In fourth, one outside the play-off, Jordan Spieth took a big step towards winning the Open two years later. Before all this, Rory McIlroy followed Darren Clarke and Ernie Els, two stalwarts of the Open, and before Louis Oosthuizen came two wins for Padraig Harrington after the third of three for Tiger Woods.
That volatility still exists, not just through outsiders Fox, Harman, Johnson and Oosthuizen but Todd Hamilton and Ben Curtis too, and this should appeal to most recreational golf punters. Though the very best at some stage overcome it – it's sometimes said that to be a great golfer, you have to win the Open, and both McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler have – they are most certainly more beatable when they give back some control over their golf balls.
All of which is why McIlroy can be resisted. Were we back at the K Club, where he won this title for a second time after that breathtaking finish a year ago, odds of 6/1 would've been an unfathomable gift, but here they might look more like a trap despite McIlroy having been third and fourth on his last two starts, the best form he's shown since winning the Masters for a second time back in April.
We must also respect the fact that when elite fields gather on the DP World Tour, we tend to be reminded of levels within levels, and with that in mind ALEX FITZPATRICK hits the sweet spot.
Fitzpatrick is up to 61st in the world now and higher still with DataGolf, thanks to a stunning year which began without a top-level professional win or a PGA Tour card and ended with fourth place in the FedExCup, higher than his major-winning brother.
That of course is a bit misleading, as the revised FedExCup now reshuffles the top 30 according to their performance in the Tour Championship, but the very fact Fitzpatrick could qualify for East Lake speaks to how far he's come. Yes, there was a helping hand from big brother when they paired up to win the Zurich Classic, but sent out on his own, Alex has confirmed that he belongs among the best in the world.
It's true that most of his best golf came in the spring but it still counts for plenty, and I can't stress enough how impressive it is that in four Signature Events featuring the best players on the PGA Tour, Fitzpatrick bagged four top-10s. What's more, three of these came despite poor putting; all four were courtesy of top-five tee-to-green displays at courses he'd never seen before.
Fitzpatrick didn't do himself justice in the Scottish Open or the Open, a negative now that he's back playing links golf, but his ball-striking remained strong throughout both, only to be undermined by more poor putting. It's fair to say that had Matt been able to take over once aboard the green, Alex could've been competitive in both of these tournaments.
A deserved break followed and he took a while to rediscover his best in the Playoffs, but Fitzpatrick then finished fourth in the Tour Championship, his putter finally snapping out of its funk and his work around the green remaining of a high standard. That's the one part of his game that Matt has always most admired (though he's made big strides himself in that department).
If Fitzpatrick's short-game continues to shine then more good things will follow as his long-game sharpens up, and while he doesn't appear to like The Renaissance hence a poor Scottish Open record, he was ninth at Royal County Down on his sole links appearance in the Irish Open. Coupled with 17th on his Open debut at Troon while he was still on the HotelPlanner Tour, that represents sufficient encouragement.
Jacob Skov Olesen was always going to be a popular selection having won the Amateur Championship at Ballyliffin, briefly led the Open, placed in the Dunhill Links, and demonstrated on several more occasions that this is a version of the game with which he's particularly comfortable.
However, he's now the same sort of price as Fitzpatrick, who was fourth behind Scottie Scheffler two weeks ago, finishing alongside McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, and three members of the US Presidents Cup side. As this was happening, Olesen was finishing second in the British Masters and while a career-best performance, 33/1 in a field featuring a clutch of elite players is too short. He was the same price there.
I'd prefer to take my chances on SEPP STRAKA rediscovering his best and making his price appear all wrong in the process.
That's no given following a miserable summer but the Austrian just hinted at something better in each of his last two starts, finishing 34th and 33rd in a pair of FedExCup Playoffs events, both courtesy of improvements to his approach play.
When Straka is firing that second shot is his strength and it's been right back on track the last twice, ranking 17th of 70 at Southwind and then 16th of 50 at Bellerive, a course which really wasn't set up well for him. As you might expect given his lack of form, there was inconsistency within these eight rounds, but in half of them he ranked among the very best that day in what were strong PGA Tour fields.
The bar wasn't high but this represents Straka's best golf since the spring, when he was fourth behind Cameron Young at Doral, and it won't take much of a step up for him to be a factor now dropping in grade even for a strong DP World Tour event. This is a class act, remember, who has also been runner-up at Pebble Beach and eighth at Sawgrass this year and may be edging back to that sort of level.
We know he can play links golf as he was runner-up in the Open at Hoylake, 22nd the following year at Troon and seventh in a Scottish Open too, and it helps that this is a short course with five par-threes and a general sense that iron play will be key whereas distance shouldn't really matter. Straka is a relatively short, accurate driver and perhaps it's not a coincidence that his best major performance came in an Open won by Brian Harman, where Tom Kim also contended.
We'll see how he putts but Straka has long been up and down in that department and that's broadly true of his entire game. He won the AmEx at a big price at the beginning of last year, had won the John Deere the previous summer when in miserable form, and did nothing between top-10s at the Honda and the PGA Championship in 2023.
In 2022, he lost a play-off at Southwind after six missed cuts in a row and his breakthrough earlier that year (in an event Harrington and McIlroy have both won, where crisp ball-striking in a stiff breeze is often required) was his first top-10 finish in nine months.
High ceiling, low floor players aren't for everyone and I'd be lying if I said I knew what to expect from Straka this week, but in these conditions he's a class act with big upside at the odds. Given that he has contended for an Open, this two-time Ryder Cup player has to be worth chancing at 50/1 and upwards, with the standout 66s worth taking at the cost of a few places.
This is Hao we do it
Sergio Garcia showed enough promise last week to merit a second glance and we know all about his links record, but it was alarming to see him capitulate on Saturday afternoon, one bad mistake leading to another, and another, and another. He also relied on his putter and in this significantly deeper field, with more unknowns regarding the course, he would've had to double in price to merit a second chance.
I thought about giving Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen the benefit of the doubt but while ninth place in the Open is a huge positive, a run of wide-margin missed cuts raises too many concerns and I'd rather side with HAOTONG LI.
Unlike Neergaard-Petersen, he's started to edge closer to the top of the leaderboard in three starts back from the PGA Tour. First came a one-shot missed cut in the Nexo Championship after a bogey at his final hole, then 37th at the Belfry where he generally struggles, before last week he shot a closing 66 for 18th at Crans, matching his previous best in what was his seventh start there.
This field is deeper but there could be more to come from the Chinese under conditions that promise to suit, as he's a two-time Open contender who has also won a Qatar Masters at Doha, a golf course which throws up Open contenders almost every year. His performance in Crans also came courtesy of his best ball-striking since he was eighth and 11th in back-to-back PGA Tour events at the beginning of the season.
Since then, Haotong has generally struggled with his approach play and putting but there are a couple of reasons for positivity here. First, he ranked second in strokes-gained approach at Crans, where the putter was admittedly cool once again. Second, the best he's putted all year was in July, across The Renaissance and Birkdale, and we can therefore hope these slower greens help unlock improvement as they did then.
Haotong has putted well a few times now in the Scottish Open, while of his five Irish Open appearances in the DP World Tour's strokes-gained era, the best two sets of putting numbers came on the two occasions he faced links greens. All three of his Open Championship appearances for which we have strokes-gained data show very good numbers, an average of a stroke gained per round putting him among the very best.
This has helped contribute towards 15th place at Lahinch, three top-25s at The Renaissance, four top-25s at the Dunhill Links where he has a best of fifth, and another Open top-five at Portrush to go with his storming finish back in 2017.
Haotong wouldn't necessarily look an obvious links player on paper but he's shown time and again that he is, so on the back of his best performance in months, he's an each-way option who we know can take down the best players in the game on his day.
Next, I'm hopeful that KAZUMA KOBORI can prove this a suitable test and possibly even make it two links winners from New Zealand in less than two months.
He's a very different player to his compatriot Ryan Fox, who once lost a play-off for this, but a sub-7,000-yard links course could prove an ideal fit for one whose only weakness is his lack of distance. After that he's very good and still getting better, his short-game electric at times and his approach play some of the best on the DP World Tour this summer.
Since May, Kobori averages +0.94 strokes-gained per round with his approaches, that almost matching a Tour-leading +0.97 in the season-long stats, and having been above-average on each of his last 10 starts, my feeling is that he's going to go close under the right circumstances before the year is over should this continue.
Wentworth could suit next week and the same could be true of places like Le Golf National and Delhi GC, but Kobori came through a 36-hole qualifier for the Open at West Lancashire and then finished 28th in the Open itself, a big performance for a 24-year-old playing in just his third major, and has what it takes to contend under links conditions.
We can throw in ninth at Doha and 28th in a breezy KLM Open for further encouragement, plus 12th on his Dunhill Links debut before he held DP World Tour status, and the Tour-leader in driving accuracy might just be up to contending at a short course where that precision carries genuine value.
Kobori was ninth last time out after his putter warmed up, that at a rain-softened Belfry where longer drivers generally held sway, and I fancy him to enjoy this.
Thorbjorn Olesen finished alongside Kobori at the Belfry and has four Irish Open top-20s across a range of links courses, plus a Dunhill Links win, an Open top 10, and a near-miss at Doha. That's a pretty compelling profile in some ways, but his long-game has been poor for a while now and while a sharp short-game always helps when the wind blows, more is needed from tee-to-green.
Among the outsiders, former Scottish Championship winner Adrian Otaegui is interesting having rediscovered his trademark approach play. He missed the cut last week but that's in keeping with a rotten record at Crans, from which he could bounce back if accuracy is indeed important, and if his putter behaves. I wouldn't put anyone off this former Boys Amateur champion who has plenty of top-30s on similar links courses.
I sided with Matteo Manassero when he placed at 66/1 at Royal County Down and he's a considerably bigger price two years later, that because of successive missed cuts in which he's generally still looked in decent form, while Sam Bairstow has four top-25s in six, hit the ball well last week, and has plenty of links experience including second in the Amateur Championship.
Back up the betting, I was close to siding with Shane Lowry, who I expect to be raring to go after a break and who will plainly relish this test. It would be quite like Lowry to extend a golden weekend for Irish sport through to the end of this one and I sense we'll see him step up with precious Ryder Cup points now on offer.
It's easy to take a dim view of his season, which ended as early as Southwind out on the PGA Tour, but Lowry has been close to his best and that's backed up by the fact he splits Robert MacIntyre and Tyrrell Hatton in DataGolf's rankings. Both are a fair bit shorter generally and while I'd acknowledge their strike-rates are superior, home advantage and the weather forecast edge me closer to Lowry at the prices.
However, I have another few names on the shortlist alongside him and rather than take a price which could yet drift, as I don't expect he'll be a popular choice, I'm going to take the rare step of waiting for tee-times and looking again. It's possible there are no further selections, but I'll update this preview on Wednesday morning either way.
Posted at 20:00 BST on 07/09/26
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