F1 expert Louis Bollard has produced a remarkable 100% ROI on his 2026 selections. Here are the latest of them, for the Italian Grand Prix at Monza.
F1 betting tips: Italian Grand Prix
4pts Max Verstappen to finish on the podium at 12/5 (Betfred)
1pt Liam Lawson to finish on the podium at 50/1 (General)
2pts Liam Lawson to finish in the top five at 15/2 (General)
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It's the one we've all been waiting for under these 2026 regulations. Expect a very different "Temple of Speed" experience this year as cars run out or energy halfway down the long Monza straights and need to recharge their batteries for ultimate performance. From a betting perspective, this is a fascinating conundrum.
Monza is the most energy-demanding circuit on the calendar, with drivers spending 80% of the lap at full throttle in the past. To combat cars harvesting dangerously, a rule has been implemented to allow only 5MJ to be harvested in qualifying. As a result the cars will spend significantly more time running on their ICE rather than their battery which will play into the hands of the best combustion engine, Red Bull.
Monza has typically been a track where teams have decided to take engine penalties given the multiple overtaking opportunities to recover positions, and Mercedes has chosen to do so here with Kimi Antonelli. Mercedes would expect to be strong here anyway, and it would be no surprise to see Antonelli recover to the front of the grid, but at the prices I'm happy to look elsewhere.
George Russell is the obvious beneficiary to take advantage of a Mercedes package which should thrive around this circuit, but he's carrying enough baggage to warn me off the 2/1 available, albeit he could sail away into the distance given the question marks over his rivals.
McLaren have been resurrected after consecutive dominant wins in the last two, but those circuits couldn't be more different to Monza and we should see the car regress. While they are bringing upgrades including a new rear wing to reduce downforce, the inherent draggy-ness and short gear ratios will hurt them at no other circuit more than Monza, so I am keen to back against them this week.
Similarly, Ferrari have struggled on energy-demanding circuits all season and would be easy enough to write off in their home race, however they may introduce an engine upgrade this weekend. Should they do this they may be a win contender, but on what we know now, I'm keen to be against them. At the time of writing there is no confirmation of this engine upgrade being brought to Monza.
This leaves Red Bull, who have been at their best in the limited energy-demanding running we have seen. Spa and Austria were the Red Bull engine's strongest weekends where we had MAX VERSTAPPEN challenging for race wins, an Isack Hadjar excellent drive from back or the grid, and Racing Bulls being the strongest in the midfield across these circuits.
Most notably, Arvid Lindblad was the fastest driver in Spa sector one which is the highest correlated sector with Monza we have seen so far.
In addition to the two mentioned above, LIAM LAWSON and Yuki Tsunoda make some appeal after confirmation that Hadjar will miss out again.
Verstappen may well be a leading contender here and was tempting for the race win, but preference is to back the podium finish to cover the possibility of Russell running away with it.
Lawson had a positive second debut for Red Bull last time out but had a race in no man's land. The change in track variation may see him pick off some McLarens/Ferraris and have a fighting chance of holding off Antonelli as he comes through the field, so he too is chanced for the podium, with a stronger bet advised for a top-five finish.
Lindblad continues to shine and Tsunoda proved he is able for these 2026 regulations. Double points scoring, or even nicking a special result is possible again here for Racing Bulls with the team having already won here twice in the past 18 years. If you're able to build your own bets, consider both drivers for a points finish to bump up the price.
More paddock notes
Fernando Alonso
Remarkable drive in Zandvoort in the upgraded Aston Martin to come home P9 from back of the grid. Still struggled in a straight line so back to rear they go this weekend, but positive signs are there and Madrid may be better.
Williams
Has failed to deliver on pre season expectations with Carlos Sainz surely regretting choosing these over Audi now. Merc engine is a positive here but may only be enough for them to get out of Q1.
Haas
From watching them in person in Zandvoort they looked far superior to the back markers they had been racing in the past few races. Albeit they said the track had suited them more than previous rounds. Could outrun their odds but points is still a big ask but may pick up the pieces should the opportunity arise.
Posted at 20:20 BST on 02/09/26
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