West Ham welcome Southampton on Sunday is a big game at the bottom of the Premier League. Tom Carnduff has a 200/1 shot in his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Jan Bednarek to commit 2+ fouls at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Rice, Aguerd, Bednarek & Lavia each to make 2+ fouls at 200/1 (Sky Bet)
Two sides in the relegation zone, two sides who know how important victory will be in this contest.
West Ham have the advantage of holding a game in-hand over every other team around them at the bottom end of the Premier League table, but it will only count for something if they can secure three points from it.
In Southampton, they face a team with the opposite problem of having played a game more. They will take some comfort in the fact that there are so many teams involved in that relegation picture, but leaving the London Stadium empty-handed will be viewed as a disappointing outcome.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
West Ham 7/10 | Draw 13/5 | Southampton 17/4
Given the circumstances and the time of season, we can expect this game to be a nervy one. Neither side will want to make a crucial mistake that gifts the opposition a chance to score.
It means we should see plenty of fouls committed, as this has roughly been the case when two in that bunch of teams floating near relegation have met in recent weeks.
There were 24 when Leeds beat Wolves, 23 in Southampton's win over Leicester and a big total of 28 as Nottingham Forest and Everton played out a 2-2 draw. All of those games were played in March.
The Saints sit in the top-three for average fouls committed per Premier League game anyway, with at least 12 coming in five of their six league outings under Rubén Sellés.
Paul Tierney is the referee and he's been averaging 20.6 fouls awarded per game - that is the second-highest average of any official to have taken charge of at least 20 top-flight contests this season.
That means there is value on offer in the fouls market, and the most eye-catching one is that 10/3 for JAN BEDNAREK TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS with Sky Bet.
The centre-back was forced off through injury in the 3-3 draw with Tottenham last time out, but the fact he played in both games for Poland over the international break is a strong suggestion that he should be fit and available for this one.
The first-half of the season was spent at Aston Villa where he barely featured. Since his January return, he's been a regular and has contributed fouls throughout.
Bednarek has committed two or more fouls in four of his eight starts since the return, but one of those that fell short was when he was forced off last time out.
Under Sellés, he committed 2+ in two of their three away outings - with a total of six returned across that period. He also had two in the opening day defeat to Tottenham, although that was with a different head coach at the helm.
Sticking with fouls, and a fun one at huge odds of 200/1. If it does become a nervy game as expected, we should see both teams hit double figures in the fouls count.
Multiple bookmakers allow multiples to be made in the fouls market, but we're taking Sky Bet's price for RICE, AGUERD, BEDNAREK & LAVIA EACH TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS.
We've already discussed Bednarek and Roméo Lavia is another player who has been contributing in terms of fouls. The midfielder has committed at least one in 69% of his Premier League outings this season.
For West Ham, Declan Rice committed two fouls in home contests against Everton and Brentford, while he also had a foul in games at Brighton and Tottenham. In fact, he's seen at least one in five of his last seven in the league.
Nayef Aguerd's return to the side saw a foul committed in the recent draw with Villa, but he did have two when they lost at Wolves back in January.
West Ham v Southampton best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Jan Bednarek to commit 2+ fouls at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pt Rice, Aguerd, Bednarek & Lavia each to make 2+ fouls at 200/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1330 BST (30/03/23)
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