West Ham host Brentford in Friday's non-televised contest and Tom Carnduff is targeting one player in the stats markets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Thilo Kehrer to have 2+ fouls at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Thilo Kehrer to have 3+ fouls at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
Brentford and West Ham saw disappointing results on Boxing Day, with both dropping points from winning positions. The Hammers unable to hold onto their 1-0 half-time lead away at Arsenal, while Brentford drew from a 2-0 advantage against Tottenham.
Not exactly perfect conditions for either team aiming for a response, coming up against another side who endured similar events in their last match.
West Ham's season on the whole has been one of disappointment, with initial aims to be battling among the European places again quickly turning into a fight for survival. It's difficult to back them in any game at near even money based on showings across the first-half of the campaign.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Friday
West Ham 21/20 | Draw 12/5 | Brentford 13/5
Brentford's away showings have been typical of a mid-table side. They're 11th in the away table with seven points gained from eight outings - remarkably their only victory being away at Manchester City just before the World Cup break.
So while David Moyes' side have been poor at home, the Bees have hardly been buzzing on the road and that makes this a difficult game to get involved with in terms of the outright.
Instead, there is value in the stats market and targeting THILO KEHRER TO HAVE 2+ FOULS at a nice price of 9/2.
The Germany international has been a regular since joining the club in the summer, and only Tomas Soucek and Lucas Paqueta have averaged more fouls per game in the Premier League following his arrival.
What is eye-catching is how evenly spread his numbers are in this area - 11 of his 14 league appearances this season have seen at least one foul committed.
There's been a foul in each of his last six in the Premier League, which is interesting when you consider that run featured home contests against Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Leicester.
Ivan Toney's physical presence should keep this Hammers back line busy, while the possibility of him playing at right-back opens up the potential for fouls on wingers.
At 16/1, we're also having a small stakes play on KEHRER 3+ FOULS, something he has achieved this season.
Kehrer committed three in home games against Bournemouth and Fulham, with these two games seeing him featured in the centre of defence and at right-back.
It's also worth noting that Tottenham centre-back Japhet Tanganga committed three fouls in their Boxing Day clash with Brentford, further highlighting how much of a handful this forward line can be.
West Ham v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Thilo Kehrer to have 2+ fouls at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
- 0.5pt Thilo Kehrer to have 3+ fouls at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 0945 GMT (28/12/22)
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