West Brom and Burnley face-off for Friday Night Football this week. Liam Kelly previews the game and provides a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Over 5.5 West Brom corners at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365)
Friday Night Football doesn't disappoint as two potential promotion contenders clash at The Hawthorns.
West Brom may sit in the bottom half having drawn five of their seven Championship fixtures, but they're just six points off the top, whereas Burnley occupy third, losing just one game in a very solid start for Vincent Kompany.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
West Brom 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Burnley 12/5
Still, there's not much between the teams if we look at the underlying numbers.
Despite winning only one game in the league this season, Steve Bruce's side hold a +5.6 expected goal difference (xGD) thus far. Burnley have posted a +3.3 xGD in the same amount of games.
With both clubs seemingly excelling at the attacking end of the pitch, the match odds are a risky play. Similarly, playing the overs in what might be an entertaining but tense match-up should be avoided.
Instead, backing a trend displayed by the Baggies this term makes appeal.
Whether it is simply the approach of Bruce or the byproduct of selection and setup, West Brom are racking up the corners this season, especially at home.
They've taken 47 corners in seven league games, an enormous 33 of which have been won in three matches as hosts. Consequently, the 10/11 on offer for WEST BROM to take OVER 5.5 CORNERS looks generous.
I'm not put off by the fact that facing Burnley will be tough for the home side. After all, West Brom won the corner count against Watford 12-0 earlier this term.
Kompany's side have been a little vulnerable from a defensive perspective, too, conceding chances in recent meetings with Blackpool, Wigan and Millwall.
The opposition breached a 5.5 corner line in two of those fixtures. I expect a better West Brom to do so on Friday night.
West Brom v Burnley score prediction and best bets
- 2pts Over 5.5 West Brom corners at 10/11 (PaddyPower, Betfair Sportsbook, bet365)
Score prediction: West Brom 2-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct 1130 BST (01/09/22)
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