James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt) takes the reins for this weekend's Cheat Sheet column, which moves from its usual Super Sunday slot to Saturday afternoon as Tottenham host Liverpool. Will one of their unbeaten runs end in north London?
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt e.w. Pape Matar Sarr to score first at 28/1 (Sky Bet 1/3 1-99)
Back our suggested BuildABet @ 55/1
Pape Matar Sarr 3+ shots
Dominik Szoboszlai 3+ fouls
Yves Bissouma 3+ tackles
Luis Diaz 2+ shots
As per Opta, Manchester City’s chance of lifting the Premier League trophy before a ball was kicked was 90.2%. Now, after taking 18 points from their opening six games, it has dropped to 88.8%, how do you make sense of that?
Well, the decrease in probability is not a fault of their own but a nod to the start Liverpool have made. Since the 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge on matchday one, the Reds have won the following five league games, scoring two or more in each fixture and three in all bar their trip to St James’ Park.
It looks like we might actually have a title race on our hands.
Next on the rampant Reds roster is Tottenham.
As Tom Carnduff put it last weekend; “Ange Postecoglou's revolution at Tottenham has caught the minds of the neutral and the hearts of the Spurs faithful.” The point at the Emirates will have only improved Spurs’ supremo’s popularity.
The four goals were split evenly with Arsenal last Sunday and with over 2.5 goals priced at 4/11 here, another goal laden clash is expected by the bookmakers, and it's hard to disagree.
Do not be deterred by Spurs overperformance of their xG this season. James Maddison and Son Heung-Min have combined for 40% of their sides 15 league goals, and they are two of the most clinical finishers in the game.
Over the last four seasons, Maddison has scored 32 goals from an xG of 19.98 and since Son moved to the top flight in 2015, he has over-performed his xG by 32.30, the pair in the upper echelons of the 'finishing ability' spectrum.
Punt on Pape
With goals anticipated, it would be daft not to dip into the goalscorer market where PAPE MATAR SARR is 28/1 TO SCORE FIRST.
The central midfielder has had a direct hand in two goals this campaign, scoring the opener in Spurs’ 2-0 victory over Manchester United and assisting Maddison’s opener at Bournemouth.
Sarr’s game time was limited last season but in the two campaigns he spent at Metz, the youngster chipped in with eight goals and assists.
His career goals per 90 average (0.10) make his price to score anytime apt at a glance but when you scratch the surface, the underlying data reveals him to be one of Spurs’ most threatening players.
At Tottenham, Sarr ranks third for xG (1.09), behind Son, Dejan Kulusevski and Maddison. He is fourth for post shot xG (1.34) and shots (11), averaging 2.5 per game.
I think there's plenty of juice in his price to strike first on Saturday.
Pape Matar Sarr 3+ shots
Sticking with Sarr, he has had at least one attempt in each of his six Premier League appearances to date.
The midfielder has hit eight shots in the two home games he has played, racking up five against Man Utd and three against Sheff Utd.
At 2/1, backing him to have 3+ shots certainly appeals.
Dominik Szoboszlai 3+ fouls
I let out an audible gasp when I saw Dominik Szoboszlai’s price to commit 3+ fouls. He’s 8/1 with Sky Bet.
For Liverpool, only Alexis Mac Allister has averaged more (1.7) fouls per game than the Hungarian (1.3).
This is an angle all about the player he is opposing; Maddison. As the heat map above shows, the England international loves to drift over to Szoboszlai's side.
Maddison draws 2.8 fouls per game and has been fouled three or more times in all four of his last four league starts.
Yves Bissouma 3+ tackles
Yves Bissouma has been a colossus in this campaign, he tops Spurs’ charts for tackles averaging 3.5 per game.
He had only failed to complete at least three in the home game against Sheffield United which should not come as a surprise the Blades deployed a very low block.
Luis Diaz 2+ shots
Only 7% of the shots Spurs have conceded have come from the right side, 16% have come from the left.
Considering this, Luis Diaz 2+ shots is worth a punt. He has averaged 2.2 shots per game domestically this campaign.
Team news
Tottenham are set to be without new signing Brennan Johnson for this game, after he suffered a hamstring injury in North London derby last weekend, but Spurs are at least positive that James Maddison will be fit this weekend after he jolted his knee.
Johnson is expected to miss out, meaning Richarlison could be called upon from the start.
The list of known absentees for Postecoglou's men reads; Ivan Perisic (knee), Giovani Lo Celso (thigh), Rodrigo Bentancur (knee), Bryan Gil (groin) and Ryan Sessegnon (hamstring).
As for Liverpool, Trent Alexander-Arnold is back in training, though he does face a race against time to be fit for this one. Thiago is the only other fitness concern for Klopp, who has a fully-fit squad barring the aforementioned duo.
Mohamed Salah - who wasn't in the squad for Liverpool's Carabao Cup win in midweek - will be expected to start here, along side Luis Diaz and Darwin Nunez, while a well-rested Joel Matip could also continue his recent run of Premier League starts in the backline alongside Virgil van Dijk.
Predicted line-ups
Tottenham: Vicario; Porro, Romero, Van de Ven, Udogie; Sarr, Bissouma; Kulusevski, Maddison, Son; Richarlison
Liverpool: Alisson; Gomez, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson; Szoboszlai, Mac Allister, Jones; Salah, Nunez, Diaz
Match facts
- Tottenham have won just one of their last 21 Premier League games against Liverpool (W6 D14), a 4-1 win at Wembley Stadium in October 2017.
- Liverpool have scored at least once in their last 15 league games against Spurs. However they have only kept two clean sheets in that run.
- Liverpool's current unbeaten run in the Premier League (W12 D5) is 10 games longer than any other side's (Arsenal and Spurs both 7).
- Tottenham have scored 2+ goals in each of their six Premier League games under Ange Postecoglou. The only manager in Premier League history to see his side score 2+ goals in each of his first seven games in charge in the competition was Craig Shakespeare (with Leicester in April 2017)
- Having scored exactly three goals in each of their last three Premier League games (v Aston Villa, Wolves & West Ham), Liverpool will be looking to score 3+ goals in four successive league matches for the first time since March 2014 under Brendan Rodgers (a run of 6).
- Liverpool duo Mo Salah and Darwin Núñez are creating a chance for one another on average every 29 minutes while on the pitch together in the Premier League this season, the best ratio of any pair to play 100+ minutes together in 2023-24.
- Mohamed Salah has either scored (6 goals) or assisted (9 assists) a goal in each of his last 12 Premier League appearances, including all six of Liverpool’s league games this season (3 goals, 4 assists). The only players in the competition’s history to record a goal involvement in each of their side’s first seven matches of a campaign were David Beckham for Man Utd in 2000-01 and Erling Haaland for Man City in 2022-23.
Odds correct at 1900 BST (29/09/23)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.