Football betting tips: Serie A, Ligue 1
19:45 – Serie A: Milan vs Juventus
1pt Milan to win Draw no Bet at 11/10 (General)
19:45 – Ligue 1: Marseille vs Nice
1pt Nice +1.0 Asian Handicap at 21/20 (bet365)
1pt Elye Wahi (Nice) 1+ Shots on Target at 8/11 (bet365)
AC Milan vs Juventus
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1, DAZN, HBO Max
- Live odds, form and stats
Is any more than pride at stake when these Italian giants go head-to-head at San Siro on Sunday night?
While both failed to manufacture a meaningful title challenge this season, they are comfortably embedded in the top four as they prepare to face-off against one another. Milan have 66pts and Juventus 63pts, providing a comfortable cushion over fifth-placed Como as we head into this weekend’s fixtures.
Milan are a reasonable W9-D4-L3 at home, but that record does not tell the full story of their strengths and weaknesses this season. More significantly, Max Allegri’s side have done especially well against the division’s better sides: they are W5-D3-L1 vs the other teams currently in the top six, including an excellent W3-D1-L0 at home. On the basis of these figures, the 21/10 (Bet365) on a Milan win looks good value.
Juventus are W8-D3-L5 away from home but, unlike Milan, have not saved their best for this type of head-to-head encounter. The ‘Old Lady’ of the Italian game are W3-D2-L4 against fellow top-six sides, and a disappointing W0-D1-L3 on the road against that elite group of teams. The first Serie A encounter of the season between these sides ended in a 0-0 draw in Turin last October.
Given the season-long struggles Juventus have had against the division’s other leading lights, it is difficult to make a strong case for them collecting all three points at current odds of 6/4. Such clear favouritism for the visitors will make little sense to anyone that witnessed their league defeats at Como (2-0), Napoli (2-1), and Inter (3-2).
The advice is to support Milan in some way. The big price on a Milan victory throws up opportunities in other markets: for example, Milan or Draw in the Double Chance market is 4/7. We prefer MILAN DRAW NO BET at 11/10, with stakes returned if the game ends all square and a pay out should Milan win.
Marseille vs Nice
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:45 GMT
- TV: Amazon Prime PPV
- Live odds, form and stats
The odds about Marseille win this weekend look too short given how these two sides have played in recent weeks.
Marseille are 1/2 favourites with Nice 11/2 and the Draw 4/1. Do Marseille really have a 68 per cent of winning the match, as their odds imply?
I think not. Marseille’s form has worsened since Habib Beye replaced current Tottenham boss Roberto De Zerbi as their manager in February. Under Beye, Marseille’s record is a dismal W4-D0-L4. They have lost three of their last four matches, turning in one of their worst performances of the season at Lorient (2-0 defeat) last weekend.
Nice arrive after an upturn in fortunes. Their defensive tactical shape and mindset paid off at Lille last week, as they frustrated their opponents for long spells before emerging with a creditable 0-0 draw. Then, on Wednesday, they sprang a surprise, winning 2-0 against favourites Strasbourg in the Coupe de France semi-final to take their place in next month’s final against Lens at Stade de France.
Nice are 4pts above the relegation playoff position (16th) with four games to go, and as they look to edge towards safety, a ‘park the bus’ approach is likely. It is questionable whether Marseille have the patience or ingenuity to break down such tactics right now.
Nice or Draw at 7/4 in the Double Chance market is an option. We'll be taking a more conservative selection with NICE +1.0 ASIAN HANDICAP at 21/20. With this selection, you will win if Nice win or the game ends in a draw, and your stakes will be returned if Nice lose by exactly one goal.
Nice's main danger man will be their ex-Marseille striker ELYE WAHI. He scored both goals in their midweek win over Strasbourg, and had an excellent goal ruled out for a marginal offside decision last weekend. He is 3/1 (Bet365) to score anytime but we'll be taking him at 8/11 to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET.
Odds correct at 15:15 BST (24/4/26)
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