Football betting tips: Sevilla v Dortmund
2pts Sevilla to win at 7/5 (SBK)
1pt Sevilla to win to nil at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
Sevilla v Dortmund
- Wednesday, 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 3
- Match Odds: Home 13/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 2/1
Having already tipped up Sevilla to qualify from this tie in my last 16 preview, it won’t come as a surprise to see that I am siding with the Spaniards to win their home leg.
Julen Lopetegui’s side are incredibly impressive, and I would argue that they are one of the best-coached teams in Europe.
Sevilla always punch above their weight, admittedly in the Europa League, but this team absolutely belongs on the biggest stage, despite not boasting any stand-out individuals.
Defensively they are one of the best sides on the continent, allowing just 1.10 expected goals against (xGA) per game, and that is shown by the fact that they have kept seven straight clean sheets in all competitions, winning all seven too.
Los Nervionenses have been on fire at home too of late, winning seven straight and conceding in just one of those. Their expected goals process has been sensational at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan over the entirety of the season so far.
- Expected goals process is the rate at which teams create and concede chances
Priced at 40/1 (General) to win the Champions League, I think Sevilla represent a bit of value, even more so since they acquired Atalanta’s former creator-in-chief.
Monchi, long known for his incredible dealings in the transfer market, has pulled off another coup by signing Alejandro ‘Papu’ Gomez, who captained his former employers to the quarter finals of this competition last season.
Papu has long been a sensational player to watch, and brings some much-needed creativity to this well-drilled Sevilla side. He should help them overcome the injury suffered to key man Lucas Ocampos, as last season Papu averaged 0.58 expected goal involvements (xGI) per 95 minutes.
- Expected goal involvement (xGI) = expected goals (xG) + expected assists (xA)
He will take some stopping here, and Dortmund haven’t exactly been tight defensively of late.
BVB are rudderless at the moment, a ship without a captain if you will.
After topping their Champions League group under the guidance of Lucien Favre, the German giants parted ways with the Swiss coach after a run of poor results domestically.
With no clear plan, Dortmund opted to see out the end of the season with an interim coach, former player Edin Terzić, but they are limping there currently, with results remaining incredibly poor.
Terzić has overseen 12 games in all competitions, with Dortmund winning just five of those, losing four – all of which have come away from home.
Dortmund this week announced the appointment of Borussia Mönchengladbach manager Marco Rose as their new manager – at the end of the season. I’m betting they wish they could fast forward to that point.
They come into this game sat sixth in the Bundesliga table and six points off the top four, but they unquestionably have a supremely talented squad, full of young stars.
Erling Haaland and Jadon Sancho are the obvious names that spring to mind, but they haven’t hit the heights of last season – post January – and are playing in a team that lacks guidance and identity.
Defensively they do look very gettable, with a switch from Favre’s back-five system to a back four not protecting well enough. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in seven league games, and have kept just one in 10 Bundesliga games under Terzić.
To me, Sevilla are the better of the two teams, and are definitely the team in better form heading into this first leg. Their defensive solidity gives them a platform that Dortmund simply don’t have.
The Spaniards are the more organised of the two, and I think they will be able to control this game and secure a first leg win.
You can back SEVILLA to WIN at 7/5 (SBK) best priced, but I would also back them at the 13/10 available generally, and would back the hosts down to 11/10.
That is my best bet for this game, and as an outside play, chancing the hosts to win to nil at 10/3 tickles my fancy. Dortmund have some incredible attacking firepower, but Sevilla boast one of the best defensive units in Europe.
As mentioned, the Europa League holders are on an excellent streak of winning without conceding, so the big price on them to add to that run is a second angle I like.
Score Prediction: Sevilla 2-0 Dortmund (Sky Bet odds)
Sevilla v Dortmund best bets
- Sevilla to win at 7/5
- Sevilla to win to nil at 10/3
Posted at 1600 GMT on 16/02/21
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