Sporting Life
Our best bets from across this weekend's Serie A action

Serie A tips, best bets, predictions and previews: Matchday 28 picks

By James Cantrill
Football
Sun April 02, 2023 · 3y ago

James Cantrill looks for winners from Serie A this weekend, with three bets from across two games ranging from 8/11 to 10/3.

Football betting tips: Serie A

3pts Theo Hernandez 1+ Shots in Napoli v Milan at 8/11 (bet365)

1pts Theo Hernandez 2+ Shots in Napoli v Milan at 10/3 (bet365)

1pts Fiorentina or Draw Double Chance v Inter at 6/5 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Napoli v AC Milan

Napoli made history in Europe, securing their place in the quarter-finals of the Champions League for the first time in their history with an emphatic victory over Eintracht Frankfurt.

Domestically, I Ciucciarelli have been in imperious form winning 23 of their 27 games, only losing once at San Paolo all season.

21 points clear with 11 games remaining, their Scudetto charge becomes more ominous each week. Luciano Spalletti's side will inevitably end their 33-years year wait for domestic glory.

Next on the schedule is Milan, a dress rehearsal of the UCL quarter-final.

The defending champions seemed to have turned a corner winning three league games on the spin in February.

They have only won one point since beating Atalanta, form that has put a massive dent in their top four credentials.

Only three sides have averaged more shots per game in the Italian top flight this season though, and given Milan had 22 in the reverse, they could rack up a few in Naples.

THEO HERNANDEZ's price to have 1+ SHOTS looks very large.

The full back has averaged 1.8 in the league this season, Milan’s third highest average, and he has hit this line in 87% of his 23 starts.

The French international has had six in his last five appearances against Napoli, hitting this line on five occasions over which time he has had a direct hand in three goals.

The hosts only conceded 9.7 shots per game, the majority of those done the left flank though with 26% via that side, compared to 12% on the right side.

THEO HERNANDEZ 2+ SHOTS also takes appeal.

This is a line he has hit in 52% of his league appearances this season, including the reverse of this fixture, so the 10/3 about him hitting the line certainly represents value.

Score prediction: Napoli 1-0 Milan (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct at 1130 BST (29/03/23)

Inter Milan v Fiorentina

In their final game before the break, Juventus dealt Inter's top four hopes a hefty blow in the Derby D'Italia to complete the domestic double over La Nerazzurri.

This capped off a forgettable run of games for Simone Inzaghi's side.

Since their victory in the Derby della Madonnina, Inter have only won two of six domestically, form that has seen their grip on a top four finish loosen.

No doubt the international break was welcome. I do not think the host's form justifies their short price in this game though, especially when you take into account FIORENTINA's recent run.

The visitors have bounded into spring, winning their last seven on the spin and are unbeaten in nine, galvanising by their European charge.

Only Napoli (15) and Juventus (15) top Vincenzo Italiano's side (13) in the Serie A form table and their most recent victory over Lecce saw them move into the top half.

Siding with them DOUBLE CHANCE at odds against looks like a bet for their trip to the Meazza as they rarely get turned over by the divisions 'big boys'.

Roma scored twice without reply and Lazio put four past them, though it is worth noting Fiorentina won the xG battle 2.86 - 1.45 in that fixture.

The Tuscans picked up results against AC Milan, Lazio, Juventus and Napoli, defeated by a one goal margin against Inter and Atalanta away from home.

Score prediction: Inter 0-0 Fiorentina (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct at 1100 BST (29/03/23)

More from Sporting Life

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.