Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Both teams to score at 10/11 (bet365, Betfred)
0.25pt Qarabag to win and both teams to score at 12/1 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
Newcastle might feel a little annoyed to be playing in the Champions League play-off round - and they have every right too.
They went to the Parc des Princes in their final league stage game with a chance of finishing in the top eight.
A spot in this round at the very least was already confirmed due to their goal difference, effectively giving them a free hit against PSG, but somewhat surprisingly Eddie Howe chose to rest and rotate.
He fielded a pretty conservative XI and tried to nick the game in the final 20 minutes when the cavalry arrived. Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon came on with a little over 20 minutes to go but a semi-fit Bruno Guimaraes played no part.
Howe’s plan almost worked perfectly as well but this is the type of decision which fans only appreciate if it goes your way and unfortunately for Howe, it didn’t on this occasion.
Moments like this are likely behind the divide in opinion at St James’ Park and his approval rating took another dip as his side went on to lost the next three matches on the spin.
Liverpool put four past them at Anfield in the Premier League, Manchester City dumped them out of the Carabao Cup and Brentford beat them 3-2 at St. James’ Park.
The back-to-back wins against Tottenham and Aston Villa in the Magpies' most recent two games are also a bit misleading.
It was Thomas Frank's final game in charge in North London and Villa were leading in the FA Cup fourth round clash until Marco Bizot got himself sent off in bizarre fashion.
Back to the matter at hand.
Newcastle head to Azerbaijan without Joelinton or Guimaraes and with the pair absent, their midfield looks comparatively ordinary. Without the latter, the Magpies win percentage drops from 54% to 14% as well (W2 D6 L6).
Away from home, Newcastle have struggled this term. They have failed to win 15 of 19 games in all competitions (W4 D6 L9).
The absentees, Newcastle’s struggles without Guimaraes and their away record this season make them a pretty hard sell in a two-legged clash at the prices available.
Sky Bet has the visitors priced at 4/11. For context, that’s the same price Chelsea went off there in a match which ended 2-2.
QARABAG are a force to be reckoned with in the Champions League, especially at home. They’ve scored two or more goals and only lost one of four games in Baku (W2 D1).
Although the 2/1 on the hosts' win-or-draw double chance appeals, the 10/11 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE looks the more sensible play.
Newcastle have only kept one clean sheet across their last 15 away games with this bet clicking in each of their last three matches on the road in the Champions League.
At 12/1, combining the hosts TO WIN alongside BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is also worth a tout as the impetus will be on Qarabag to take a lead over to England ahead of the second leg.
Odds correct at 18:20 GMT (16/02/26)
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