Premier League title race: Odds, fixtures, results and analysis
'Twas a week before Christmas, when day after day, everything that happened, went Liverpool's way.
First, Manchester City followed a lifeless 0-0 draw with Manchester United by drawing with West Brom at home, a game for which they'd been priced up at around the 1/12 mark. The following night, Robert Firmino scored a 90th-minute winner for Liverpool against Tottenham. Then on Saturday, the champions put seven past Crystal Palace, defying their own manager's concerns around another lunchtime kick-off.
For the second time this season, Liverpool were cut to odds-on favouritism for the Premier League. For the second time this season, it did not last long. And while the first reality check came in a 7-2 defeat at Aston Villa, equal parts shocking and bloodying, the second felt more significant.
Liverpool have played three games since they produced that rousing display at Palace, and they've failed in each of them - whether your measure is points or performance.
As Klopp's side have faltered, strained by the absence of a now vital summer signing and their star centre-back, Manchester City have done the opposite. Since their draw against West Brom, Pep Guardiola's side have been near faultless, particularly in defence, and collecting nine points out of nine. What was an eight-point gap is now four, and their two games in hand appear to put them in pole position.
It is now City who have assumed favouritism, and they now are odds-on - a fact which perhaps owes more to the manner of their victory over Chelsea than the three points it earned them. At Southampton and against Newcastle they did no more than was necessary; in London, aided by a haphazard opponent, they made a statement. For the first time in what feels like an age, this looked like Pep Guardiola's Manchester City.
And yet there is more to this title race now, because if all teams win all games in hand, it is Manchester United who are in front.
Right around the time that Man City followed defeat to Leicester with a draw against Leeds, and Liverpool suffered that amazing loss at Villa Park, United lost 6-1 to Tottenham and were considered such unlikely champions that high-street firms laid 100/1.
Three months later and a 10-game unbeaten run has them at 6/1.
With Spurs themselves still in the mix at 14/1 despite a stuttering run, and the likes of Leicester, Chelsea, even Everton, Aston Villa and Southampton on the periphery, this title race has more depth than most expected. While it remains likely to the tune of 75% that either City or Liverpool win the title, that 25% is a patchwork of five, six or even seven very capable sides.
But for now, we'll focus on the most likely four.
Liverpool
- Odds: 11/4
- Position: 1st
- Form (recent first): LDDWWD
Given the timing, there's a temptation to overplay the negatives surrounding Liverpool who are, let's not forget, top of the Premier League. They still haven't lost a home league game since April 2017, and it's just three weeks since they deservedly beat Spurs just before putting seven past Palace.
Still, two points from nine since Christmas has laid bare a major problem: their current lack of options, and an attacking cabal that probably needs a rest. At the start of the season, Diogo Jota's introduction brought class and competition as well as respite, but he's been out since early December, and isn't expected to return until the end of the month.
Takumi Minamino impressed against Palace but hasn't featured since, during which time Liverpool's stock front three has gone quiet. When that happens, they don't score - in fact outside of Mo Salah (13), Sadio Mane (6), Firmino (5) and Jota (5), no other player has struck more than once. Last season, 13 players did; goals from defenders Trent Alexander-Arnold and Virgil van Dijk, respectively out of sorts and injured, are sorely missed.
Of course, it's less straightforward to put a figure on Van Dijk's absence since that challenge from Jordan Pickford in the Merseyside derby, a fortnight after Villa had scored seven. Liverpool's response to a miserable sequence was that of champions, but the load has proven too heavy during an intensely busy spell. This is exacerbated by a rejigged midfield and a decimated defence: injuries have been especially costly.
No doubt the FA Cup comes at an ideal time but when Liverpool return to league action, the pressure is on fortress Anfield, as they face two big threats to their unbeaten home run in the coming weeks - first, without Jota against Manchester United, and then potentially with him against City.
Expert view: Dave Tindall
My fear is that Liverpool have peaked. But let’s get this clear, the peak was an extraordinarily high one. In other words, it was almost impossible to keep gulping in oxygen at such rarified air.
Just a few short weeks ago, Liverpool were being last season’s Liverpool: winning a showdown against Spurs with a last-gasp winner. With a favourable fixture list in front of them, there looked to be scope to pull clear. But instead, they have gone to press the accelerator and found nothing.
There’s a feeling that this season wasn’t meant to be after the ridiculous run of injuries in central defence. And with Jurgen Klopp now plugging the holes with midfielders it seems he’s lost faith in the youngsters that were trying to muddle Liverpool through.
I may be reading too much into it but I can’t help noticing the parallels with Klopp’s stint at Borussia Dortmund. From fifth in 2010/11 he catapulted them to back-to-back title wins before a 15-point drop-off in the following campaign. Liverpool have basically followed the same pattern except that in one of those ‘title campaigns’ we actually finished as runners-up; 97 points would have won the league in 116 of the previous 119 seasons.
So after playing like runaway title winners for the last two campaigns, now we’re on that same downward curve; not a dramatic one but the one that led to Dortmund finishing second to a previously dominant force. For Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, read Manchester City in the Premier League.
The intensity of the last two seasons has taken a toll, subtle in some ways but vital overall. 2-1 away wins have become 1-1 draws and pulling rabbits out of hats in injury time can no longer be consistently relied upon. Manchester United are perfecting that trick although City are the ones for me.
Bear in mind I’m writing this after a run of two points out of nine: a 1-1 home draw with West Brom, a 0-0 at Newcastle and a 1-0 loss at Southampton. Old Negative Nora is bound to be chipping away at me after fixtures that should have yielded seven points at minimum. Would I have given a very different response after the 7-0 thrashing of Crystal Palace? Possibly, but concerns wouldn’t have been far from the surface.
Perhaps Klopp buys big in the January transfer window and the defence is fixed. More likely, the spark will fizzle in and out and Liverpool come up short. Fake crowd noise may be tricking our minds but the reality of no fans hurts the Reds more than it does City in my view. ‘Remain’ fan Klopp has always been about the ‘whole’ and a crucial part of that is missing.
Liverpool at 11/4? Not for me, Clive. The combination of still hard to beat combined with sporadic brilliance looks a better recipe for the cups.
Manchester United
- Odds: 6/1
- Position: 2nd
- Form (recent first): WWDWWD
It was on November 4, a Champions League night, that Ole Gunnar Solksjaer went odds-on to be the next Premier League manager to leave his post, the delicate and verbose version of 'the sack race'. A month earlier, United had been thrashed 6-1 by Tottenham at Old Trafford. In the days leading up to their Istanbul trip, they had lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal. Now, defeat to Basaksehir courtesy of disorganised defending placed Solskjaer in peril.
Two months on, and he's 40/1. An incredible comeback from once again being on the brink when defeats by PSG and RB Leipzig knocked United out of the Champions League at the group stage.
From 100/1 rank outsiders early in the season, 40/1 as recently as November, they are now 6/1 third-favourites for the title, their manager now considered among the safest in the division. On points-per-game - a qualification nobody would ever have thought to use pre-2020 - they lead the Premier League. Perhaps as importantly, they are entertaining a fanbase who demand exactly that.
There's still a feeling that this success is a little flimsy. Certainly, Aston Villa have grounds to feel aggrieved that they lost 2-1 on New Year's Day, Wolves before them even more so. That being said, not since a drab goalless draw with Manchester City early in December have United lost the Expected Goals (xG) battle; that is to say while Marcus Rashford's deflected goal was fortunate, perhaps the result against Wolves was not.
All in all it's hard not to have been impressed by Solskjaer's ability to overcome what appear to be tactical inefficiencies and capitalise on United's strengths, which are largely in attack. Perhaps they depend too much on Bruno Fernandes, but there's a steeliness of character emerging in this team.
Next is to get a proper handle on their form, on their perceived improvement. There is no denying that while proving hard to beat outside of the Champions League - their last defeat domestically was that loss to the Gunners on November 1 - United do not yet have a statement victory. To win the title, they will surely need it; Liverpool at Anfield could be that moment later this month.
Looking further ahead, the reality is that they still must visit Chelsea, Manchester City and Tottenham too, plus Arsenal, Wolves, Villa and Leeds, and from a fixtures perspective perhaps theirs is the toughest run to the line.
They remain underdogs, then, but not to anything like the extent we saw just a matter of weeks ago. Ole!
Expert view: Nick Metcalfe
I've been pretty consistent over the last two years in thinking Manchester United would be better served by having a top level manager. But in the spirit of Roy Walker and Catchphrase, you have to say what you see and United's improvement under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer lately has been mighty impressive.
It's true to say that many of United's big name stars have often dragged them to victories, like the brilliant Bruno Fernandes and evergreen Edinson Cavani, but show me a successful side that hasn't relied on two or three standout performers.
And confidence is clearly sweeping through the team. The 3-2 comeback win at Southampton at the end of November looks crucial in their development - they've been relentless in the league since then and have now given themselves a shot at glory.
I still think it's an outside chance at this stage though. Liverpool have all the experience of winning the league so handsomely last season, and key players that have been out injured will return. Manchester City are on an ominous run right now, and they certainly know their way to the finish line under Pep Guardiola.
United would probably be third favourites behind those two, but this is a funny season with little or no fans present, and logic often seems to be thrown out of the window.
Belief is growing just that little bit among United fans, and it could be quite a ride between now and May.
Tottenham
- Odds: 14/1
- Position: 4th
- Form (recent first): WDLLDW
When Jose Mourinho arrived at Tottenham, the fit did not look a natural one. As he strode back into the Premier League, out went the cherubic and charming Mauricio Pochettino, brown-haired and bright-eyed. In his place stood a prickly and grey Portuguese whose years in the spotlight suddenly began to show. It had been less than a year since his tenure at Manchester United, hallmarked by static and sterile performances, had come to a miserable end; months since he'd looked so out of place on Sky Sports.
But Mourinho was galvanised by that stint on television, and veritably sprang into life, charm dial turned to 10 and shackles removed. Spurs immediately responded, beating West Ham 3-2. Short of winning a north London derby with Mourinho heading the winner himself, there could have been no swifter act to convince doubters in the stands that he was very much the right man for the club.
Since then, he has proven yet again that he is a generational talent, able to generate real warmth within a club and erect a wall around it which he mans alone. This is his club now. And through Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son, he has even been able to mask it in attacking verve when his natural tendency to protect still remains. Spurs have occasionally gone into their shell, sometimes to their cost; yet they've also dazzled in a way few expected, their stunning victory over Manchester United especially sweet for the complex character in the dugout.
Mourinho has nobody left to win over, or at least he shouldn't have, and victory over Leeds has set his side back on course to at least solidify their top-four status. With their record-breaking duo in attack and the immense Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg in midfield, it is not yet beyond them to win the Premier League for the first time. Liverpool, Chelsea, and United all have to travel to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and as for Manchester City, Spurs under Mourinho have beaten them twice without yet conceding.
In all likelihood, Spurs are just short of what's required, their Europa League and domestic cup involvements and dependence on the Kane-Son partnership must cost them at some stage. Watch for them though if they reach April within touching distance, for theirs is a run-in with few big hurdles, and theirs is a manager who does winning better than most.
Expert view: Jamie Weir
I have consistently said Spurs are not title contenders, and stand by that. The leap from where they were last season to suddenly winning the Premier League is just too great, and I believe the quality and experience of having been in that position that Liverpool and Manchester City have will eventually tell come April and May. Success this season for Tottenham would be a top-four finish and to finally end that 13-year wait for a trophy; as we enter the second half of the season they’re well placed to do just that.
People are running out of superlatives to describe Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son, so I won’t waste much time, but needless to say in these two Spurs have a pair of genuinely world-class forwards capable of beating any opposition.
Captain Hugo Lloris has been consistently brilliant all season, a commanding presence behind a back four still getting to know each other. The emergence of Tanguy Ndombele as the midfield playmaker and creative spark, finally realising the potential that was clear for all to see in his troubled first season at the club, has been another factor in Spurs’ renaissance.
But Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg has been the player who has transformed the side most. Tough, combative, reliable, assured on the ball and with a seemingly bottomless engine, he looks as if he could have been built by Jose Mourinho in a laboratory - he is the archetypal Mourinho player, his voice on the field.
There is understandable concern in other areas from Spurs fans. After the hysteria and excitement surrounding the return of the prodigal son, Gareth Bale hasn’t had the impact many would have hoped for, although that’s partly been down to a number of niggling injuries and something tells me he still may have a couple of special moments in him later in the season.
Matt Doherty, sent off recently against Leeds, like Bale has struggled to impose himself on the starting XI, but there are a few caveats where he is concerned, in that he had promising early season progress abruptly halted by Covid-19, he’s learning a new position and system, and that many players have difficulties in their first season at a new club.
The biggest conundrum for fans, though, remains Dele Alli. A player of undoubted class, who seems to have lost his way somewhat. I don’t buy into the myth that there’s been some bust-up between himself and Mourinho. I think it’s simply a young man bereft of confidence, scratching his head at how to rediscover his form of two or three seasons ago. Spurs will persevere with Dele, and I’m confident in time he will find that missing mojo.
Criticism of Spurs in recent weeks has centred around their tendency to take an early lead and then surrender possession and invite pressure. The comfortable victory against Leeds has done something to keep critics at bay for now, but there is still some truth in the fact that they’re over-reliant on the counter-attack. The free-flowing football in the early season performances against Southampton, Manchester United and West Ham has dried up.
That is partly down to fatigue – Spurs have played more matches than anyone else, in a season already drastically concertinaed – and partly down to having their fingers burnt by those last ten minutes against West Ham, when they inexplicably surrendered a three-goal lead.
This side is a work in progress, however, and a couple of key signings this month – or more likely this summer – could give Mourinho a Plan B and C, in turn bring more eye-catching football, and make Spurs genuine title contenders next season, hopefully in front of packed stadiums once again.
Manchester City
- Odds: 10/11
- Position: 5th
- Form (recent first): WWWDDW
There's a feeling that Manchester City have been let off the hook by Liverpool, and to an extent it appears true. Certainly go back to the start of the campaign and four points from nine was a stuttering start for Pep Guardiola's side. Then, in early November, Liverpool took the lead at the Etihad and simply looked superior. Despite earning a point, and let's not forget they also missed a penalty, City did little to change that impression, one solidified by a timid defeat at Tottenham in their next game.
In 11 subsequent matches across all competitions they are unbeaten. What's more, they've conceded just four goals, and despite shipping six in their first two league games this season, theirs is now the best defensive record. It's needed to be, because they have suffered in attack where Gabriel Jesus hasn't been able to fill the void left by the injury-plagued Sergio Aguero, with Jesus himself blighted by a combination of injury and Covid-19 during what has been a difficult campaign.
The Brazilian has just two league goals to his name this season - half that of City's leading scorers, Riyad Mahrez and Raheem Sterling. Seven players have two or more, but no-one has taken up the mantle in Aguero's absence. The net result is that City average 1.60 goals per game - fully a goal fewer than their previous three-season average.
Goals and big games are the two areas of concern, and much depends on whether their recent 3-1 victory at Chelsea can act as a turning point in both departments. We wait until February to find out, with City away at Liverpool, then hosting Spurs, before a trip to Arsenal. March then begins with a Manchester derby, and April with a trip to Leicester.
Before all this, it's reasonable to expect City to have underlined that they are the team to beat. Their next three league games (Brighton, Palace, Villa) are all at the Etihad, before they visit West Brom, host Sheffield United, then head to Burnley. Were they to earn 18 points from a possible 18, City would go to Anfield with the opportunity to land a fatal blow.
Expert view: Sam Lee
Pep Guardiola realised his team had a problem with counter-attacks a long time ago, it's something they struggled with throughout 2020, because without Fernandinho in midfield and Aymeric Laporte in defence, they were allowing more counter-attacks and less equipped to deal with the scrutiny. That helps explain his ultra defensive approach against Lyon in the Champions League. The Leicester game at the start of the season, with a pretty shoddy looking defence, really highlighted things, and the Spurs defeat exploited one or two lingering issues.
The improvement in recent weeks seems to be a decent split between tactical tweaks and personnel. City have been keeping clean sheets for a while now and a lot of those games were quite dull to watch. City were creating fewer chances than normal up until around the middle of November, I think they were taking fewer risks in possession, keeping their players close together and trying to eliminate the spaces to break into. Part of the improvement was simply that the defence have been playing well, especially in terms of the traditional defending of headers, tackles etc.
City had big problems on the break against Liverpool, but Kyle Walker, Ruben Dias, Laporte and Joao Cancelo stood up to the scrutiny well (apart from Walker conceding a penalty).
Recently of course John Stones has come into the side by doing well in the Champions League games at a time when Laporte had a poor performance at Spurs. Since then, City have only conceded three times in all competitions, with Stones finding top form from nowhere. So City were playing quite reserved football by their standards and had defenders in form.
The 0-0 draw at United in December was another turning point because it was surprising to many in terms of how timid City were, and basically Guardiola was happier to take a point than to risk opening his team up and concede on the break. That's very unlike him, of course.
Since that game he's moved to be more attacking, to create more chances (because they're poor finishers, they generally need four or five chances rather than two or three). The West Brom draw was just poor, it was a bad performance, but in terms of Guardiola's approach he was much more adventurous than against United, playing wingers wide, asking both full-backs to get forwards and pushing Ilkay Gundogan up, too.
In games since then, including at Chelsea, he's been finding different ways to make sure the defence is well shielded (that there's somebody next to Rodri to help him out) but for it not to be Gundogan, so the German can get forward and support the attack more.
He's also had Cancelo pushing up into an attacking midfield role from right-back, which has been really effective. It's meant that City have more men in attacking positions without sacrificing numbers at the back, and that's brought better performances from Gundogan, Cancelo, and Bernardo Silva for example, because they've been able to do roles that suit them better than previously.
Odds correct at 1815 GMT (05/01/20)
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