Cameron Pope picks out six stats to include in a BuildABet for Nottingham Forest v Manchester United, including a 20/1 fourfold.
- Under 2.5 Goals
- Wout Weghorst 3+ Total Shots
- Felipe 3+ Tackles
- Harry Toffolo 2+ Tackles
BACK OUR 20/1 BUILDABET WITH SKY BET
What does the Infogol expected goals (xG) model predict?
- Predicted % chance: Forest 22% | Draw 23% | Man Utd 55%
- Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 56% | Under 44%
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes 56% | No 44%
Under 2.5 Goals
Even money looks a runner given the glaring lack of goals (both actual and expected) in Forest and United's recent games, suggesting a low-scoring affair is more likely than anticipated.
Forest have scored three times in four matches, registering just 2.42 xG in that time. Though faring better at home to Everton with 3.67 xG last time out, United have struggled to create on the road.
Erik ten Hag's men registered 0.35 xG at Newcastle, 0.92 in the 7-0 drubbing at Anfield and 1.36 in their 2-0 win at Leeds.
Factor in the absence of Marcus Rashford on Sunday, too, and a bet that has landed in five of the last six games these sides were involved in looks good.
Wout Weghorst 3+ Total Shots
Wout Weghorst hasn't played a full 90 minutes since the win over Leicester in February, but after coming on for a late cameo against Everton last time out, he could be set for some game time during the run-in following Marcus Rashford's injury.
He averages one shot per appearance but will now shoulder the responsibility for United's attack against a team that has allowed 29 shots in their last two games - eight against Villa and a 21 against Leeds.
Felipe 3+ Tackles
No Forest player has made more successful tackles than Felipe's 23 this season, a figure made all the more impressive by the fact he has only made nine Premier League appearances!
Her averages 2.49 tackles per 90 at a success rate of 72%.
Forest aren't known for long periods of possession, spending just 32% of the time on the ball against Villa, which hints that the need for the Brazilian defender's ball-winning nous is at an all-time high.
Harry Toffolo 2+ Tackles
As Forest's descent towards relegation continues, Harry Toffolo has been booked in two of his last three appearances.
The former Huddersfield defender has started three successive games after playing just over 30 minutes of Premier League football through January, February and March.
Toffolo has averaged 1.98 tackles attempted per 90, with a success rate of 80%. He can expect another busy afternoon.
Bruno Fernandes 1+ Offsides
United's mercurial midfielder is no stranger to going forward and has been caught offside 12 times this season.
The statistics reveal that his offsides are far more prevalent away from home, with an average of 0.7 per appearance compared with 0.4 at Old Trafford.
Jonjo Shelvey 2+ Tackles
Jonjo Shelvey has found his way into the referee's book twice in his last three appearances.
With 1.76 tackles attempted per 90, he is a key part of Forest's efforts to turn over possession and should be in the thick of things once again against United.
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