Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Both teams to score at 19/20 (bet365)
0.5pts Morgan Gibbs-White to score anytime at 15/2 (Sky Bet)
Arsenal ended a run of three straight defeats with an emphatic 5-0 victory over Crystal Palace in their last league game.
The Gunners spent Christmas top of the Premier League, a point ahead at Liverpool but have fallen five points behind the Reds as their form flatlined.
This trip to the City Ground won’t be as easy as the visitors' odds on price suggests, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have taken six points from the 12 on offer.
What are the best bets?
At a shade of odds on, backing BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE appeals.
Offensively, Forest were uninspiring in the FA Cup stalemate with Sky Bet Championship side Bristol City. It was the first time they have failed to score since Nuno took charge, that is seven matches and 14 goals scored.
Under Steve Cooper, Forest averaged exactly one goal a game (55 in 55 games). Granted, it is a smaller sample size but netting nine times in four domestic games since Cooper’s departure suggests the club is trending in the right direction.
The clean sheet against the Robins was also the first of the Nuno era.
Heading into that game, Forest had shipped 1.60 goals per game so expect a goal laden clash at the City ground against the Gunners who have netted 42 in 21 games.
MORGAN GIBBS-WHITE is thriving under Nuno.
The Forest boss knew the £25m man would play best in his favoured position, believe it or not, moving him off the right and into the number 10 and boy is it paying off.
In five games Gibbs-White has scored twice and set up another, racking up nine shots and an xG of 0.70.
Netting in each of his last two starts, his price of 15/2 TO SCORE ANYTIME on Tuesday looks simply too long.
BuildABet @ 150/1
- Nottingham Forest to win
- Morgan Gibbs-White to score anytime
- Matt Turner to be shown a card
Nuno has already secured scalps against Manchester United and at St James’ Park. The hosts went off around 5/2 against the Red Devils suggesting there is some juice in the price on Tuesday evening. Matt Turner was carded in Forest’s victory at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season, his side have scored first in 75% of Nuno’s games and if they do so on Tuesday you would imagine their stopper will pull out all the stops.
Team news
Ola Aina, Cheikhou Kouyate, Willy Boly, Serge Aurier, Ibrahim Sangare and Moussa Niakhate are away at the African Cup of Nations so are unavailable for Forest.
This game comes too soon for Anthony Elanga who is still recovering from a thigh strain but Gibbs-White should return to the starting XI after an impressive cameo at Ashton Gate.
Declan Rice was withdrawn during Arsenal's last game but Mikel Arteta said it was just fatigue. He should start in the middle of the park for the visitors, flanked by Kai Havertz and Martin Odegaard.
Predicted line-ups
Nottingham Forest: Turner; Montiel, Omobamidele, Murillo, Toffolo; Danilo, Yates; Hudson-Odoi, Gibbs-White, Dominguez; Wood
Arsenal: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Zinchenko; Odegaard, Rice, Havertz; Saka, Jesus, Martinelli
Match facts
- Nottingham Forest have won their last three home games against Arsenal in all competitions, winning FA Cup ties in 2018 (4-2) and 2022 (1-0), and 1-0 in this exact fixture last season. They’ve never won four consecutive home games against the Gunners before.
- Arsenal have won five of their last six Premier League games against Nottingham Forest (L1) and are looking to do the double over them in the competition for just the second time (also 1998-99).
- Since their return to the Premier League last season, Nottingham Forest have dropped 46 points from winning positions, at least 11 more than any other side in the competition.
- No side have kept more Premier League clean sheets than Arsenal this season (8). However, the Gunners are looking to record a shutout in consecutive league games for just the second time this term, previously doing so with wins against Bournemouth (4-0) and Man City (1-0) in September/October.
- Having won their first three Premier League away games this season, Arsenal have won just two of their last seven on the road (D2 L3). They’re winless in their last three away league games (D1 L2) – they’ve not had a longer run under Mikel Arteta since his first six such games in charge between December 2019 and June 2020 (D4 L2).
- Arsenal have scored the most goals from set-piece situations in the Premier League this season (13, excluding penalties), the most from corners (10) and the most headed goals (10). Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest have conceded the most from set pieces (11), and only Brentford (11) have conceded more from headers (9).
- Nottingham Forest’s last two Premier League wins have been against sides that finished in last season’s top four, beating Newcastle United 3-1 and Manchester United 2-1. Forest had won just two of their previous 36 such games in the competition (D8 L26).
- Nuno Espírito Santo’s four Premier League games in charge of Nottingham Forest have produced a total of 17 goals (F9 A8), an average of 4.3 per game. This is almost two goals per game more than his spells in the competition with Wolves (2.4) and Tottenham Hotspur (2.5).
- Chris Wood has been involved in six goals in his last four Premier League appearances (5 goals, 1 assist), as many as in his previous 45 combined. Wood is averaging a league goal every 72 minutes under Nuno Espírito Santo, while converting 50% of his shots since the Portuguese took charge.
- Gabriel Martinelli scored twice in a 21-minute substitute appearance in Arsenal’s 5-0 win over Crystal Palace last time out, as many goals as he’d netted in his previous 22 Premier League games combined.
Odds correct 1540 GMT (29/01/24)
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