Nottingham Forest look to lift themselves off the bottom of the table on MNF, hosting Aston Villa at the City Ground. Liam Kelly has a best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Ollie Watkins Over 1.5 Shots on Target at 11/4 (bet365)
News of Steve Cooper's contract extension ends the speculation surrounding the Nottingham Forest managerial position, a significant backing of the boss that brought them back to the big time.
On the pitch, however, Forest are far from finding that stability.
They prop up the table with eight games played, heading into a second successive appearance on Monday Night Football as underdogs.
Aston Villa are not to be trusted in current form, though, making the match odds a miss. Their price is passed over on what is a massive home game for Forest.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Monday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Nottingham Forest 12/5 | Draw 12/5 | Aston Villa 11/10
Steven Gerrard's side failed to break down Leeds in a 0-0 draw last weekend (xG: LEE 0.32 - 2.58 AVL), despite having an extra man for almost a full half.
Still, there is an angle I like from the Villa attack, especially as Forest are one of the worst defensive teams in the Premier League, allowing an average of 1.98 expected goals against (xGA) per game.
With that in mind, the industrious OLLIE WATKINS can be expected to have some success against a poor set of central defenders for the level. Indeed, the 11/4 available about Villa's forward recording OVER 1.5 SHOTS ON TARGET makes appeal.
While Watkins has underperformed his expected goals numbers this season, scoring just once from 2.41 xG, he has a good strike rate for getting his attempts on target.
He finished the 2021/22 campaign ranking ninth for shots on target, and has started this season with similarly solid figures.
Seven of his 14 shots have been on target, so if Watkins does manage to fashion chances against this Forest defence, you would fancy him to test Dean Henderson.
Of course, a better rate is needed to land this bet, but that is factored in to the tempting price.
Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Ollie Watkins Over 1.5 Shots on Target at 11/4 (bet365)
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct 1530 BST (07/10/22)
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