Jake Pearson is a man in form, landing winners at 13/5, 23/20, 5/4 and 6/5 on Saturday, and he is in the Super Sunday chair to preview Newcastle's hosting of Tottenham.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Tottenham to win at 11/10 (General)
Newcastle United have been taken over, in case you haven’t heard, and despite the circus surrounding Steve Bruce’s apparently impending sacking, the club have announced that the former Sunderland boss will be in the dugout for Sunday’s visit of Tottenham, racking up 1,000 matches as a manager.
There has been such a positive reaction to the takeover from Newcastle fans, however, that they may have even forgotten how much they hate Bruce, a man who guided them to Premier League safety last season.
After the media frenzy surrounding St James’ Park, and a huge inflation in the amount of Newcastle shirts seen across the country, you would be forgiven for thinking that the Magpies had already claimed the Premier League title; there is, unfortunately for the Geordies, the trifling matter of reality.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Newcastle 23/10 | Draw 13/5 | Tottenham 11/10
Tottenham fans will probably be looking on at the Newcastle situation with a sort of “why not us” demeanour, another club disgruntled with the people upstairs, but for now they will have to make do with Daniel Levy and Nuno Espirito Santo.
Spurs started the season on fire, winning each of their opening three matches, but they quickly fell from grace, losing three on the bounce after Santo was awarded the Premier League manager of the month for August.
A north London derby defeat to Arsenal was a particular low point for Tottenham, but they got their season back on track with a 2-1 victory over Aston Villa prior to the international break, and they fully deserved that victory, winning the Expected Goals battle by 1.92 to 1.37, though those figures don’t include the Matt Targett own goal that gave them the victory, with Lucas Moura poised to tap the ball in the back of the net and send their xGF for the game much higher.
Tottenham under Santo are a difficult beast to predict, capable of the sublime, but also susceptible to the horrendous.
Spurs don’t show up particularly well on a lot of metrics, particularly Expected Goals – their Expected Goal Difference the second worst in the division according to Infogol – but this could be down to Spurs’ lack of shots. Nuno’s men have taken fourth fewest shots this season, averaging 10.4 per game, but they actually sit sixth in terms of shots on target, with an impressive 44% of their shots hitting the target.
Spurs are a clinical team, demonstrated by the fact they have overperformed their Expected Goals For tally in each season since Infogol began collating such data (2014/15), so it is not too big a worry that they rank lowly in such measurements.
Tottenham have a deep squad with quality throughout, and it is a surprise to see them odds-against to beat Newcastle.
Tottenham’s price has drifted from odds-on to odds-against since news of the takeover broke, and despite the feel-good factor around St James', nothing has actually changed as of yet; this is still a team without a win in the Premier League this season.
Factor in as well that Spurs were 4/6 to win on Tyneside las season, as well as returning an average closing price of odds-against when travelling to face last season’s bottom half teams last term, and 11/10 about TOTTENHAM TO WIN looks too big a price.
Newcastle v Tottenham best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Tottenham to win at 11/10 (General)
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1530 BST (15/10/21)
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