Joe Rindl has a best bet and preview for Wolves' trip to Newcastle in the Premier League with our man backing the draw at St James' Park.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Draw at 11/5 (General)
After a run of six wins from seven games, Newcastle have crashed back down to earth with three consecutive defeats including a 5-1 thrashing at Tottenham last time out.
The Magpies are probably safe now, nine points off the bottom three with eight games remaining, although their recent loss will remind supporters just how wide the gap is between their side and those towards the top of the Premier League.
Eddie Howe’s team took the lead against Spurs through defender Fabian Scharr but were soon pinned back just before half-time. In the second half they collapsed, eventually finishing the match with an expected goals total of 0.66, dwarfed by Spurs’ sum of 3.24.
The underlying data shows United to be an inconsistent outfit. Since the start of their winning run Newcastle have won the xG battle in four of their past 10 matches, although one of those losses was by 0.01.
While xG data is usually used to suggest a team is on the up, or quickly sinking, with the case of Newcastle it suggests they’re flat-lining. They are competitive in most matches, but by no means blowing their opponents away.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Newcastle 6/5 | Draw 11/5 | Wolves 12/5
Wolves have won three of their last four following victory over Aston Villa at the weekend, and in reality they should be heading to St. James' Park on a four match winning streak, blowing a 2-0 lead against Leeds after being reduced to 10-men.
Bruno Lage's men continue to overperform according to underlying numbers.
Though Wolves are sitting pretty eighth in the Premier League table, Infogol’s analytics say they should be 12th based on expected points.
The Midlands side have conceded just 27 goals in the league this season - the fourth best in the division behind only Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea - but according to xGA they should have let in 45.98.
Wolves may have won five of their past nine, but they’ve been well-beaten in the xG match-ups in six of those fixtures.
With neither side likely to blow the other away, backing the DRAW is a good value bet at 11/5.
Newcastle may have last shared the points in February, but taking out their battering at the hands of Tottenham their previous four games have all been decided by just one goal.
As for Wolves, they last drew all the way back in December, but again, their last three results have all been by one goal so a draw could well be on the cards at St James’ Park.
What’s more, history is on our side. Five of the last seven encounters between these two have ended all square. Six from eight is a real possibility.
Newcastle v Wolves best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Draw at 11/5 (General)
Score prediction: Newcastle 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 2000 GMT (05/04/21)
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