With the group finely poised heading into the final matchday, Jake Pearson previews Leicester's trip to Napoli, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Europa League
1pt Under 6 Napoli corners at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
After a brilliant start to the season, unbeaten in their first 12 Serie A matches, Napoli have hit a small speed bump of late, winning just one of their last four. They have slipped to third in the league and are two points behind leaders AC Milan.
As far as the Europa League is concerned they have been inconsistent, losing twice to Spartak Moscow but twice thumping Legia Warsaw, with a 2-2 draw with Leicester also in there for good measure.
It would be a disappointment should Luciano Spalletti’s side not progress from this group, and according to the underlying numbers they really should do, their expected goals for (xGF) total of 14.2 ranking them as the best attacking side in the entire competition.
For Leicester, their season seems to be going from bad to worse, a 2-1 defeat to Aston Villa at the weekend leaving them in the bottom half of the Premier League and eight points off the Champions League places.
They have their destiny in their own hands as far as the Europa League is concerned however, Brendan Rodgers’ men knowing a win will be enough to secure top spot and see them progress into the round of 16, avoiding a play-off against a third-placed Champions League team.
Group C is undoubtedly the most competitive group in the Europa League this season, just two points separating all four teams.
The fine balance of the group was perfectly demonstrated in the last Europa League matchday, when Leicester’s 3-1 victory over Legia Warsaw saw them propelled from the foot of proceedings to the top of the group.
Just a point behind, but in third place, sit Napoli, who can guarantee passage through to the next stage with a victory.
There are multiple permutations however, and with Spartak Moscow boasting a better head-to-head than the Italians, Napoli will need a win, and either a draw or a Legia Warsaw win in the corresponding fixture to guarantee top spot.
There is also the possibility that Leicester finish third in the group and drop into the Europa Conference League play-off.
Effectively, all four sides know a win will be enough to see them finish in the top two in the group.
A good bet in the corner market
Despite the competitiveness of the affair, a bet that really catches the eye in this fixture comes in the corner market, and specifically in backing NAPOLI TO HAVE UNDER 6 CORNERS at 5/6.
Though towards the head of proceedings in Serie A, Napoli rank in the bottom half in terms of corners taken this season, averaging just 4.25 per game, with the side from Naples winning six or more corners in just three of their 16 league fixtures this term.
There is an added incentive for Leicester to not concede corners as well, considering how poor they have been at defending them this season.
Only Crystal Palace have conceded more from set-pieces than the Foxes this term, and if they are hoping to come away from Naples with a victory, limiting their opponents to minimal dead ball opportunities could prove crucial.
Napoli v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Under 6 Napoli corners at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Napoli 1-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 0950 GMT (07/12/21)
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