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Mark O'Haire's football betting tips, best bets and nap: Goals, goals, goals

Football
Sun May 14, 2023 · 3y ago

Mark O'Haire, whose column is 28.76pts in profit this season, expects goals at both ends when Arsenal host Brighton on Sunday.

Mark O'Haire column 21/22: +21.80pts profit
Mark O'Haire column 22/23: +28.76pts profit

Football betting tips: Mark O'Haire

2.5pts Over 2.5 goals and BTTS in Southampton v Fulham at 5/4 (10bet)

2.5pts Over 2.5 goals and BTTS in Arsenal v Brighton at 9/10 (10bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Southampton v Fulham

Southampton are almost certainly heading for relegation following a disappointing defeat to Nottingham Forest on Monday.

Saints are winless since early March, suffering seven losses in that 10-game streak, and have recorded just two victories at St Mary’s. It’s therefore easy to dismiss Ruben Selles’ side on Saturday afternoon against Fulham.

But I don’t expect Southampton to down tools just yet. Saints actually won the shot count 19-9 at the City Ground on Monday and generated 2.45 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) – only Manchester United have bettered that tally at Forest this term, suggesting the south coast club may still have something to offer as they seek to pull off the impossible.

Fulham certainly won’t be easy meat. The Cottagers were competitive in narrow defeats to both Man City and Liverpool before putting Leicester to the sword.

Having already turned over Everton and Leeds by 3-1 and 2-1 scorelines recently, the west Londoners have now tabled W8-D1-L0 against the bottom five, scoring 2+ goals in seven of those showdowns.

Aleksandar Mitrovic is back from a ban to potentially lead the Fulham line here, yet the visitors are already short enough in the majority of markets so instead I’ll be looking to attack OVER 2.5 GOALS & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 5/4 (2.25).

Overs has paid out in seven of Fulham’s last 10 tussles, six of which banked for BTTS backers. Elsewhere, six of the Cottagers’ nine contests with bottom-five strugglers saw our favoured wager pay and Marco Silva’s men arrive at St Mary’s searching for a first clean sheet in 11, so it’s surprising to see over 2.5 goals chalked up as the outsider.

We’re also now into the month of May, statistically-proven to be the highest scoring month of Premier League action.

Since 2014/15 (and excluding rescheduled football during COVID times) May averages a bulbous 2.95 goals per game in the top flight. It’s a trend repeated across the continent’s major leagues and strengthens our case for a goal-filled game.

Arsenal v Brighton

Arsenal collected an eye-catching 2-0 triumph at Newcastle last weekend to keep their feint Premier League title hopes alive.

The Gunners now return to The Emirates for a tricky test against a Brighton side reeling from their shock 5-1 thrashing at home to Everton on Monday, and it’s difficult to dismiss the likelihood of another goal-filled game here.

OVER 2.5 GOALS & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is trading at 9/10 (1.90) and holds big appeal.

Arsenal were slightly fortuitous to record a first clean sheet in eight on Tyneside yet Mikel Arteta’s men again showed their class in forward areas, striking at least twice for the 11th match in 13 since losing here to Manchester City here back in mid-February.

The Gunners have been particularly prolific in front of their home supporters, averaging 2.82 goals across their 17 Emirates encounters. But Arteta’s outfit have surprisingly managed just three clean sheets at their north London base – only rock-bottom Southampton have kept fewer shutouts in their own backyard.

Brighton have been tremendous fun all season. The Seagulls have gotten on the scoresheet in 28 of 33 Premier League games, scoring in 15 of 16 away days.

However, Albion have also collected only two clean sheets on the road and have shipped multiple strikes in five of six trips to top-half opposition. Roberto De Zerbi’s proactive style can certainly be exploited.

Our proposed play has paid out in 13 (76%) of Arsenal’s 17 matches at Emirates Stadium this season, as well as 12 (75%) of Brighton’s 16 games as guests, and looks a straightforward selection for Super Sunday.

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