Saturday's Premier League begins with the Manchester derby as United face City and Tom Carnduff has picked out two best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt e.w. Joao Cancelo to score first at 40/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
1pt Harry Maguire and Rodri to be booked at 19/2 (Betfair)
The highlight of the Premier League weekend comes in Saturday's early kick-off as Manchester United take on local rivals City. The pressure continues to mount on Ole Gunnar Solskjaer but a home win here will take them level on points with the side in blue.
They are 15/4 outsiders although City have only won one of their last five meetings with United. Solskjaer has defensive issues to deal with and the possibility of Victor Lindelöf and Raphaël Varane missing this one gives City a boost.
City's 4/6 price is correct given the current situations of both sides and City's sometimes dominant performances in this fixture. There is better value elsewhere though - the track record in this fixture also creates some hesitancy in the outright market.
Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Manchester United 15/4 | Draw 3/1 | Manchester City 4/6
Without a recognised centre forward, there isn't a player who leads the way for City when it comes to the goalscorer markets. Phil Foden is the shortest price, with Gabriel Jesus, Ilkay Gundogan, Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez and Kevin De Bruyne in the pack sitting shorter than 2/1.
However, there is one value option and that's taking the 40/1 each-way price on JOAO CANCELO TO SCORE FIRST. That means each-way odds come out at above 13/1 but there is every chance that he could strike first.
As Richard Jolly highlights in his feature, Cancelo actually leads the way for shots taken in this Manchester City squad this season. Across the Premier League and Champions League, he's had a huge sum of 29.
That's led to a couple in Europe but he's still waiting for that first of the league campaign. That's despite 22 of his total shots coming in the league and an xG total of 1.60 to go with it.
While he may start as a full-back, when City go forward he operates more as a winger or attacking midfielder. It's why he's posting more shots than some of the division's strikers - he is a key player in this set-up.
This fixture isn't typically one where the card count becomes ridiculous - that's despite it being a local derby - but there should be a few given the recent history. There is also Michael Oliver's appointment as referee.
He's averaging 3.64 cards per game this season and an interesting double looks to be the 19/2 on HARRY MAGUIRE AND RODRI TO BE BOOKED. They operate in positions that have typically seen cards when these sides meet.
Maguire has actually been booked in three of the last four games against City. Rodri has also been cautioned when facing United but so too has Fernandinho - the defensive midfielders have committed fouls.
United have also committed more fouls than City in four of the last five meetings between the two - the one that fell short was a draw in this category. We could expect a few cards to come for the home side and Maguire will likely be among the leading contenders.
Ultimately, City should do enough to justify their odds-on price for success. United's issues are clear for all to see while City are still picking up results - that's despite the lack of a recognised centre forward in their side.
It's a formation and system that Guardiola has been happy to use in the past though so they don't necessarily need someone there to beat this United team.
However, with the odds available elsewhere, it's worth backing CANCELO to be among the goals with MAGUIRE and RODRI catching the referee's attention.
Manchester derby best bets and score prediction
- 1pt e.w. Joao Cancelo to score first at 40/1 (bet365 1/3 1-99)
- 1pt Harry Maguire and Rodri to be booked at 19/2 (Betfair)
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1515 GMT (04/11/21)
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