Manchester United host Chelsea on Thursday night, desperate to end their recent slide at Old Trafford. Liam Kelly provides his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Chelsea 14+ total shots at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
By Ralf Rangnick's own admission, Manchester United are out of the top-four race.
It's hard for anyone else to disagree, either, with his side possibly hitting a new low in the post-Ferguson era, losing convincingly to both Liverpool and Arsenal last week.
Difficult fixtures keep coming, too, as Chelsea head to Old Trafford looking to cement a third-place finish.
Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Thursday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Manchester United 21/10 | Draw 5/2 | Chelsea 6/5
In truth, the Blues are not in the best of form. Much like their opponents, Thomas Tuchel's side were beaten soundly by Arsenal recently, and only scraped past 10-man West Ham on Sunday.
That makes the short odds about an away win unenticing.
They did create chances in that game, though, attempting 26 shots on goal equating to a total of 2.59 expected goals (xG). Chelsea could dominate the ball in this match-up just as much as they did against West Ham, facing a United side that are massively short on confidence.
With that in mind, CHELSEA 14+ TOTAL SHOTS looks a low line to clear at a price of 4/5. Chelsea have exceeded that number in five of their last seven fixtures in all competitions, despite not being in great form.
Nothing went right for United at the weekend, putting in an improved performance in a fairly evenly-matched game but leaving the Emirates Stadium with zero points (xG: ARS 2.36 - 2.37 MUN).
United problems at the back were still evident, however.
Rangnick's side had conceded xG totals of 1.52 and 2.16 against Norwich and Liverpool respectively prior to that match, displaying their defensive frailties. They've also allowed 14+ shots in each of their last three.
Chelsea are more than capable of taking advantage of such fragility. Back them to do so by racking up some shots at Old Trafford.
Manchester United v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Chelsea 14+ total shots at 4/5 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1100 BST (26/04/21)
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