Manchester City welcome Leicester in Saturday's late kick-off, and Tom Carnduff has found value in the stats markets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts John Stones & Timothy Castagne 1+ fouls each at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
It's important to have a clear direction in mind when opting to remove your manager from their position. Knowing exactly where you want to go in both the short and long terms.
Leicester do not have this.
Brendan Rodgers' sacking eventually led to Jesse Marsch seemingly becoming the eventual first choice - a man axed by Leeds after less than a year at the helm - but his rejection took them towards a panicked rush for anyone to take the team.
Step forward Dean Smith, the man tasked with trying to keep them in the division. A trip to Manchester City is the worst possible game you could ask for at this stage.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Man City 1/8 | Draw 15/2 | Leicester 16/1
We can't rule out the possibility of the so-called 'new manager bounce' (which more often than not fails to work for relegation-threatened teams), but Smith's record against Pep Guardiola is bad.
He's faced City six times with Aston Villa and Norwich - all six ended in defeat. They scored just three goals with 19 shipped against. Comfortably outplayed and well beaten on each outing.
That's hardly a surprise when you consider the difference in quality between the teams, but Smith taking this struggling Foxes side to the Etihad can only point to one outcome.
It's not a huge claim - City are 1/8 for victory - but it just further underlines the unwillingness to give the away team a chance - and even more so to get involved in that outright market at all.
This is usually the case when City play at home but they come into it full of confidence after brushing aside Bayern in midweek - the team most fancied to be their strongest challenger to Champions League glory.
The stats are where the value can be found in games such as this, with the 7/4 on TIMOTHY CASTAGNE & JOHN STONES 1+ FOULS EACH particularly appealing.
We don't know exactly what the Leicester line-up will be, but Castagne should continue operating at right-back. That puts him up against Jack Grealish - a player Smith knows all about.
Castagne has only committed a foul in 41% of his Premier League games this season, but that stat includes contests away at Chelsea and Tottenham, alongside their home defeat to Arsenal.
We can expect the Foxes to likely stand off when out of possession but it remains an appealing selection as it's just the one foul needed - particularly if they get caught in a counter attack situation.
For Stones, his post-World Cup form has been sensational, with a brilliant performance leading to an assist in that recent win over Bayern.
Since a switch to midfield - which fluctuates at times to right-back - Stones has had at least one foul in each. We can easily see a situation where he commits a foul to stop a potential Leicester attack.
The Foxes actually gave a good account of themselves when these two met at the King Power, but the picture has changed drastically since then.
With City such a short price, the value comes in backing CASTAGNE and STONES to be involved.
Manchester City v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts John Stones & Timothy Castagne 1+ fouls each at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1445 BST (13/04/23)
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