Football betting tips: Champions League
2.5pts Atletico Madrid 10+ total shots at evens (bet365)
1pt Atletico Madrid 11+ total shots at 6/4 (bet365)
0.5pt Atletico Madrid 13+ total shots at 10/3 (bet365)
0.5pt Victor Munoz to be carded at 17/2 (bet365)
Liverpool got their first win of the season last time out against Ipswich, but I wouldn't be too quick to jump to the conclusion that they are now back and ready to go on a winning run.
Ipswich were extremely poor with their final ball or final decision making after playing through the Reds pretty easily, while Liverpool did nothing in attack after an early two-goal salvo thanks to some poor goalkeeping.
While I won't be rushing to back them at 3/4, I also won't be going near Atletico Madrid's prices in the 1X2 or handicap markets, with Diego Simeone's men out of sorts themselves to start the season.
They've won two of four but have averaged just 0.91 xGF per game across their four matches, struggling to carve out good scoring chances, though not for the lack of trying.
Simeone's men have fired off 61 shots in those four games which tells us that they are taking a lot of low-probability attempts, averaging just 0.06 xG per shot. But, the fact they are pulling the trigger has piqued my interest here against a Liverpool side who are easy to play through and who have faced a lot of attempts this term.
Liverpool have conceded 13, 12 and 14 shots in their three games against Newcastle, Nottingham Forest and Ipswich, and it's fair to say that this Atletico team, which could have Julian Alvarez back in the starting line-up, is better than all three.
So, it was incredibly surprising to see ATLETICO MADRID 10+ TOTAL SHOTS priced up at even money, and that is a cracking bet.
I do wonder if this is something that has been priced on Atleti and Simeone's reputation from the past rather than the now, as Atleti were one of the most exciting teams to watch in the Champions League last season from a goals and shots perspective.
Last season Atletico's 16 UCL games saw a whopping 63 goals at an insane average of 4.5 per game, and it all started here, at Anfield, where these sides met in matchday one of the league phase and played out a five-goal thriller edged by the hosts in which Atletico hit the required 10 shots.
As well as the goals, Atleti averaged 14.3 shots per game covering the 10+ line in 14 of their 16 games, only failing to do so at Arsenal in the semi-finals (9) and at Barcelona in the quarters (5).
They are far more gung-ho than the market is giving them credit for, and Liverpool are more porous than they have been in a long while, so the 10+ is a confident bet.
We also have to climb the ladder. ATLETICO 11+ TOTAL SHOTS is 6/4 and has to be backed, while we'll miss a rung and take ATLETICO 13+ SHOTS at 10/3.
All three lines (10, 11 and 13) were hit in 11 of Atletico's 16 Champions League games last season and in three of their four league games this season, while Liverpool's opponents have all hit at least 12 shots so far this season.
The referee here is Davide Massa who is a very good appointment for card backers, and one price jumped off the page to me in the TO BE CARDED market and it was Liverpool's Spanish winger VICTOR MUNOZ who is a massive 8/1 to be booked.
There is a decent chance he doesn't start so keep an eye out for team news with Bradley Barcola in the frame, but it's worth a swing at the prices. He's been carded once already this season in a Liverpool shirt, committing five fouls at an average of 2.49 per 90.
Playing off the right, he'll be tasked with pressing and keeping tabs on attack-minded Atletico full-back Alex Grimaldo, signed from Bayer Leverkusen in the summer, who will keep him honest and make Munoz do plenty of defensive work.
He wasn't a prolific card collector at Osasuna, but playing in a more aggressive pressing Liverpool team for a manager who's Bournemouth were one of the most cynical teams in the Premier League, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him pick up more this campaign. Let's just hope he starts.
Odds correct at 16:00 BST (07/09/26)
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