The FA Cup holders Liverpool get their defence underway with a third round tie against Wolves. Tom Carnduff previews the game, selecting a best bet.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts Over 3.5 Wolves corners at 7/4 (bet365)
1pt Wolves or Draw double chance at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
This season's FA Cup campaign can be viewed in two ways for Liverpool.
One is that it's a welcome distraction from a struggling Premier League campaign; the second is that it's a distraction they could do without as they look to push themselves back towards the top.
Last season's winners will have a task on their hands to repeat that in May, and there's every chance of them falling at the first hurdle as they welcome a Wolves side with renewed optimism under Julen Lopetegui.
I won't delve too much into the detail here as I have covered this in my third round potential shocks piece but for those of you not across every cough and spit of the Sporting Life site I'll give you the selection here as well: I consider WOLVES DOUBLE CHANCE to be value at 5/2.
Liverpool currently rank as the seventh-worst defence in the Premier League, according to the expected goals data, averaging a worrying 1.69 xGA per outing.
Basically, it's difficult to get involved with the Reds at the moment and given the likelihood of rotation against a resurgent opponent, they look worth opposing.
Wolves have picked up points since the managerial switch but the one category they have really excelled in is the corners count.
At a best price of 7/4 we're backing OVER 3.5 WOLVES CORNERS in this contest.
They were decent enough for corners under previous management - averaging 4.87 taken per league game - but that number has jumped up since a change in style following Lopetegui's arrival.
It's a small sample size of three games, but Wolves have taken 17 already - 15 of which have been across their last two - meaning their average has been 5.67 in the new era.
A point of interest is that they took seven against Manchester United so these games haven't all been against teams towards the bottom of the table. With changes expected in the Liverpool line-up, they should have chances to get at this defence.
Liverpool's opponents have taken four corners in four of their last six Premier League outings, so it's not a huge ask when this is something that has a good recent track record.
With the value on offer, we're backing the visitors to hit a reasonable CORNERS count.
Liverpool v Wolves best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Over 3.5 Wolves corners at 7/4 (bet365)
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (05/01/23)
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