Football betting tips: Europa Conference League
2pts Jhon Duran to score anytime at 2/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Jhon Duran to score a brace at 12/1 (bet365)
Competition favourites Aston Villa kick start their maiden Europa Conference League campaign with a trip to Warsaw where they take on the most successful Polish club in history, Legia Warsaw.
Unai Emery’s side made light work of Scottish side Hibernian in qualifying, winning 8-0 on aggregate.
Any whispers of the Villans not taking this competition seriously were silenced in the first leg at Easter Road as Emery fielded a full strength XI.
Given the Spanish supremo’s track record in the Europa League, I would say Villa are justifiably the side to beat in this competition.
What are the best bets?
JHON DURAN smashed in a Christian Benteke-esque equaliser at Villa Park with three minutes of regulation remaining on Saturday to kick start the hosts' late turnaround against Crystal Palace.
Despite only starting one game this season, and accumulating a total playing time of 139 minutes, that strike was the Colombian's third goal.
This translates to a goals per 90 average of 1.95. Granted, it is a short sample size but it only took Duran 11 minutes to score against Hibernian in his only start to date this season.
At 2/1, the striker's price TO SCORE ANYTIME certainly appeals in Poland.
Given his clinical start to the campaign, I think it is also worth being a little greedy here and taking DURAN TO SCORE 2 OR MORE GOALS. The same bet is as short as 6/1 with other firms.
BuildABet @ 95/1
- Jhon Duran to score a brace
- Alex Moreno to score anytime
- Over 3.5 goals
This fixture provides a great opportunity to give Alex Moreno a first start of the season after his return from injury.
The Spanish full-back is not exactly an upgrade on his French teammate Lucas Digne but was posting some promising offensive numbers last campaign. He provides something a little different at left-back.
In 19 Premier League appearances last campaign, Moreno grabbed three assists and averaged 0.88 shots per 90, generating an xG of 0.6 without finding the net.
Ideally, I would be delving into the assist or shot markets here but am happy to take a punt on him to score anytime given his xG data.
Score prediction: Legia Warsaw 0-4 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Team news
Unai Emery may look to shuffle his deck here which could see Moreno replace Digne at left-back and Youri Tielemans come into the middle of the park.
In attack, Leon Bailey and Duran should start replacing Ollie Watkins and Nicolo Zaniolo.
Robin Olsen played against Hibernian but Emery may opt for his first choice stopper Emi Martinez on Thursday.
Legia Warsaw are not expect to rotate much and could even field the same side that picked up a point on Saturday.
Predicted line-ups
Legia Warsaw: Tobiasz; Ribeiro, Jedrzejczyk, Pankov; Wszolek, Elitim, Josue, Slisz, Kun; Muci, Pekhart
Aston Villa: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Lenglet, Moreno; Tielemans, Kamara, McGinn; Bailey, Duran, Diaby
Odds correct at 1405 BST (20/09/23)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.