Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Ethan Ampadu to be carded at 3/1 (bet365)
1pt Granit Xhaka to be carded at 3/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Ampadu and Xhaka card double at 14/1 (bet365)
Leeds have been impressive this season, especially at home, especially when playing under the lights.
Daniel Farke’s side have won seven league games, five of which have been evening kick-offs at Elland Road.
Even so, I’m not sure I’d back them at odds-on quotes against Sunderland. It's an improvement on last season's price though when the pair were in the Championship.
Leeds won the title, Sunderland finished fourth and were promoted via the play-offs and when the pair squared off in mid-February, Leeds won 2-1 having gone off around 3/5.
Both sides have evolved a lot since.
Farke has moved away from his high line, Total Football approach. The Black Cats signed lots of highly regarded, undervalued European talent in the summer.
In the context of the Premier League table, the visitors are all but safe and the hosts are edging towards another season in the top flight.
Factor in Sunderland’s poor away form, they only have two wins and 11 points from 14 trips on the road, and I can certainly see the merit in backing Leeds to win. It’s just a little short for me.
Besides, I think it makes more sense to head to the card market.
Last season, the two league fixtures between these sides saw a total of 15 cards as games between the second tier's top four tended to descend into chaos.
In 12 meetings last season, the Championship’s top-of-the table clashes averaged 5.55 cards a game.
This season in the top flight, there have been 10 cards across four fixtures between the newly-promoted sides (Burnley, Leeds, Sunderland) but with a favourable referee in charge on Tuesday, there’s every chance this fixture rediscovers some of the cynical form of last campaign.
Stuart Atwell has the whistle, he’s the best referee for cards in the top-flight this season averaging 4.59Y and 0.12R. He's dished out 12Y in his last two appearances and at least six in 30% of his appearances.
In the player card market I don’t think the picks come any simpler than this.
ETHAN AMPADU is 3/1 TO BE CARDED and GRANIT XHAKA is the same price. The CARD DOUBLE pays out at 14/1.
Ampadu has picked up seven cards this season and has a career cards per 90 average of 0.30.
Xhaka only has four cards this season but based on his career cards average, I was expecting closer to 5/2 on Tuesday, some firms have him as short as 9/5.
It should be a cracking battle between the pair in the middle of the park.
Odds correct at 13:00 GMT (02/03/26)
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