Leeds need three points against Newcastle in the Premier League. James Cantrill previews the game picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
0.5pts Leeds win and Joel Robles to be shown a card at 28/1 (bet365)
Big Sam is back.
His return to management ended with a marginal 2-1 defeat at the treble chasing, defending Champions Manchester City.
On paper at least.
The reality is, Leeds were outshot 18 - 4, generated an xG of 0.27, conceded an xGA of 2.65.
United did not create a ‘big chance’ (xG greater than 0.35) and shipped four, Ilkay Gundogan missed the chance to score a hat-trick from the spot and Erling Haaland hit the woodwork.
There is something to be said for the knack of hanging in games and getting results.
It has a trait synonymous with Sam Allardyce in the autumn of his career.
At 15/4, Leeds aren’t expected to get anything out of this game, but the man in their dugout has got me thinking they could.
Even so, there is not enough juice in their price, so I am going to combine LEEDS WIN with a JOEL ROBLES TO BE SHOWN CARD to beef up the odds.
The experienced Spanish stopper has picked up 11 cards in his career, all of which have been for time wasting.
Robles has been carded in games his side have gone on to lose, he was booked in Wigan’s FA Cup final win over Manchester City and he has been booked with over 20 minutes of games still to play.
If Leeds get their noses in front, I am confident the referee will be taking his name.
Leeds v Newcastle best bets and score prediction
- 0.5pts Leeds win and Joel Robles to be shown a card at 28/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Leeds 1-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1025 BST (11/05/23)
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