Leeds head into Wednesday's game against Chelsea in the bottom three and in desperate need of a result. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Chelsea to win and Over 2.5 Goals at 7/5 (bet365, Betfair, PaddyPower)
Leeds find themselves in the bottom three as they welcome a Chelsea team not yet guaranteed of a top-four finish and with potentially one eye on this Saturday's FA Cup final.
The Whites were beaten by Manchester City and Arsenal in their last two games, but the latter of those saw Luke Ayling sent off, meaning he will miss this game and maybe the next. That's a blow.
A common theme with Marcelo Bielsa's reign was that Leeds were generally better than 'the rest' on a regular occasion but were constantly blown out by the 'big six'.
That appears to be the same for Jesse Marsch after losing 4-0 and 2-1 to sides at the top level these past few weeks, allowing 2.73 xGA in both matches.
Kick-off time: 19:30 BST, Wednesday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Leeds 17/4 | Draw 3/1 | Chelsea 8/13
If we look at their games against those teams this season, Leeds have lost all 11 matches by an aggregate score of 48-6 - meaning their games against the best have seen an average of 4.9 goals per game.
Across those games, they have allowed a whopping 3.02 xGA per game, and there is no reason to think this game against another team at that level will be any different - especially as Leeds will have to take the game to their opponents.
Chelsea aren't exactly in great form heading to Elland Road, but that may make Thomas Tuchel lean towards a strong line-up, even with the FA Cup final approaching. A bid to pick up some momentum.
Leeds' history against the best teams suggest this could be a great game for them to do just that, and even if there was to be some rotation for the Blues, I still feel they will be too strong.
After all, even through this seven game sticky patch (W2, D2, L3), they have generated an average of 2.10 xGF per game.
Add to this the fact that the Blues have an excellent away record (W18, D4, L3) and process this season (1.76 xGF, 0.99 xGA per game), and backing a CHELSEA WIN AND OVER 2.5 GOALS makes appeal.
Leeds' propensity for these types of clashes to be incredibly high-scoring, and their need for a result, should mean this game follows the same pattern as their others against the top sides - high-scoring wins for their opponents.
Interestingly, given the low-scoring nature of Chelsea last season under Tuchel, this bet would have won in 13 of the Blues 19 victories this term, while it has also landed in 14 of Leeds' 17 defeats throughout the campaign.
Leeds v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Chelsea to win and Over 2.5 Goals at 7/5 (bet365, Betfair, PaddyPower)
Score prediction: Leeds 1-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 1345 BST (09/05/22)
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