Jimmy’s Punt 25/26: Staked 33pts | Returned 47.2pts | P/L +14.2pts | ROI 43%
Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 12:30 - Newport vs Bristol Rovers
1pt Newport double chance and Nik Tzanev to be carded at 16/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Newport to win and Nik Tzanev to be carded at 33/1 (bet365)
1pt Bristol Rovers double chance and Luke Southwood to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Bristol Rovers to win and Luke Southwood to be carded at 20/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
2pts Huddersfield to win to nil vs Peterborough at 9/5 (BetVictor)
It has felt like a particularly unpredictable start to the EFL season.
Two of the sides relegated from the Premier League last term are in the bottom half of the Championship and Sheffield Wednesday are above Sheffield United. Bradford and Doncaster are in the top six of League One and Plymouth are in the relegation zone. Gillingham and Bromley are the only unbeaten sides in League Two and Shrewsbury could be on for back-to-back relegations.
Football ey. Isn't it brilliant?
I put my preconceived notions on the predictability of the Championship, League One and League Two to the test against cold hard data and boy was I wrong.
League One has proved to be the most reliable in terms of odds-on winners.
In a nutshell, 20 of the 26 teams to go off odds-on have go onto win (77%) and of those winning sides, 80% have won to nil and 40% have won comfortably (by a two or more goal margin).
With a woke, reduced international slate in the third and fourth tier, I am going to put some of that research to the test this weekend.
Newport vs Bristol Rovers
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
The presence of the TV cameras brings a rare opportunity to back player cards in League Two, which is great news given the referee appointment.
Ben Toner has the whistle, someone I am ever so fond of for his no nonsense approach to time wasting, especially when it comes to keepers.
Toner carded 20 keepers in 36 league games last season, two of which came in the same game.
After failing to give a single card in Mansfield’s 2-0 win over Blackpool, I was worried he’d turned over a new leaf but that was short lived after he dished out 10 yellows in Chesterfield’s draw with Crawley, one of which went the way of visiting keeper Harvey Davies.
Instead of trying to pick a side, I’ll be taking both keepers TO BE SHOWN A CARD alongside their respective side WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE and TO WIN as four separate bets (listed below for clarity) and I wouldn't put anyone off the draw and both keepers to be carded hail Mary at 325/1.
- Newport double chance and Nik Tzanev to be carded
- Newport to win and Nik Tzanev to be carded
- Bristol Rovers double chance and Luke Southwood to be carded
- Bristol Rovers to win and Luke Southwood to be carded
Huddersfield vs Peterborough
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
HUDDERSFIELD are sixth in League One after six games.
Each of their four wins have come to nil and only two of the 45 shots they have conceded in those wins have had an xG value big enough (over 0.30) to define them as a ‘big chance’.
In other words, the Terriers are very sound defensively.
That said, they have conceded six goals, half of which were scored in the defeat at Blackpool and the other half in the defeat at Barnsley.
There were red cards in both of those games though. Terriers keeper Owen Goodman got sent off in the first half at Oakwell and Niall Ennis was dismissed for Blackpool, both of which in the first half. And although the red cards definitely had an impact on both results, they weren’t necessarily the reason Huddersfield conceded as many as they did as four of those goals came when it was 11v11.
Those games were both on the road and on Saturday they host Peterborough, the joint-worst attacking side in the league.
Posh have only scored twice this season (joint-fewest) and mustered an xG of 4.0 (second fewest).
With four of Darren Ferguson’s five league defeats coming without his side scoring, and the data mentioned in the intro to this column, backing Huddersfield TO WIN TO NIL is the bet.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (04/09/25)
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