Sporting Life
Jimmy's Punt

Jimmy's Punt tips: EFL Championship, League One and League Two predictions and best bets

Football
Thu April 30, 2026 · 3h ago
  • Jimmy's Punt 25/26: Staked 237.75pts | Returned 232.29pts | P/L -5.46pts | ROI -2%

Football betting tips: EFL

1pt Burton double chance vs Leyton Orient & Exeter to beat Bradford at 5.6/1 (Paddy Power)

1pt Tranmere to be relegated at 11/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)

Over 2.5 goals acca

1pt Over 2.5 goals in Port Vale vs Lincoln, Swindon vs Chesterfield, Crawley vs Salford & Harrogate vs Barnet at 9.7/1 (Betfred)

Over 4.5 goals Yankee

1.1pt (Total Stake) Over 4.5 goals Yankee in Port Vale vs Lincoln, Swindon vs Chesterfield, Crawley vs Salford & Harrogate vs Barnet at 1,406/1 (BetVictor)

Anytime Goalscorer Trixie

1pt (Total Stake) Jayden Wareham, Aaron Drinan & Callum Stead anytime goalscorer Trixie at 36.8/1 (Sky Bet)

*All selections kick off 15:00

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

It's the final day and my head is spinning with punting opportunities.

Who’s got what to play for? What are the permutations? Who’s on the beach? Does it mean there’s going to be goals? What happened last season? How’s the top goalscorer race looking in each division?

Relax.

There’s actually an article on site that walks you through exactly who’s got what to play for. That’s a great place to start.

From there I’ve found a few things worth backing, you’ll find the big-boy bets for the final day at the top - outrights, 1x2 wherever the value is.

And at the bottom it's goals, more goals and the final anytime goalscorer Trixie of the season.

CheeriO's?

Leyton Orient host Burton on the final day.

The O’s sit two points above the dotted line but have a goal-difference four worse than Exeter - the only team that can catch them.

So, their fate is in their own hands but a point might not be enough.

If Leyton Orient draw or lose and Exeter win, Leyton Orient are down. If Exeter fail to win, Leyton Orient only need to match Exeter’s result.

Here’s the thing though, the O’s are 5/1 to be relegated but you can back the exact circumstances needed for them to go down at 5.6/1. What an edge.

That's BURTON WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE against Orient and EXETER TO WIN against Bradford.

I don’t trust the O’s. They haven’t won any of their last seven games (D3 L4) and they’ve played Rotherham, Wigan and Exeter in that sample.

Richie Wellens can be spiky at the best of times, I worry he’s not the man the O’s need in this crisis.

Plus, opponents Burton are very awkward.

They’re unbeaten in five, they've only lost four of their last 15 and boast an impressive record against the sides below them. It’s played 11, W5 D5 L1, albeit the defeat was in the reverse…

For the O’s to go down, Exeter would need to beat Bradford.

The Bantams’ spot in the play-offs isn't guaranteed, they need a point here but don’t travel well (W6 D6 L10).

Exeter have only lost one of their last six and are unbeaten in four. With the support of a sell-out crowd, my money's on the great escape.

Trouble for Tranmere

TRANMERE are 11/1 TO BE RELEGATED with Sky Bet, Betfair and Paddy Power.

I’d take the 10/1 available generally and certainly the 12s with Boylesports if you can get on there. It’s getting tracked at 11s though for clarity.

So, assuming League Two's basement boys Barrow are down given the miracle they need to survive - a win against fellow battlers Newport, Crawley to lose and a six goal swing - there’s four teams who could finish in 23rd.

Harrogate head into the final day in that spot (39pts -28GD), Crawley are a place above them (39pts -24GD), Newport are in 21st (40pts -30GD) and Tranmere are 20th (40pts -25GD).

Harrogate play Barnet, who have nothing to play for. Crawley play Salford, who are in the mix for automatic promotion. Newport head to Barrow, who are 1/500 to be relegated.

It's why Tranmere are such a big price for the drop. They host Grimsby and the Mariners are guaranteed a spot in the top seven.

Tranmere’s form is rotten though. They’ve only won two of their last 21 games and have lost 17 of those.

On their own patch, no side has won fewer games then Tranmere (4) and only Harrogate (15) have taken fewer points than them (17).

Opponents Grimsby have only lost two of 19 games against sides 15th or below as well (W12) so I have every faith in them winning on Saturday.

Then we just have to hope Newport and Crawley pick up results and Harrogate beat Barnet. Although, if Grimsby beat Tranmere by a four goal margin, Harrogate would only need a point to go above Tranmere and potentially stay up.

Goals, goals and more goals

In the Championship last season on the final day, half of the games went under 2.5 goals, the others went a little crazy. Five had 4+ goals, the other three had at least six with West Brom and Luton playing out an eight-goal game.

In League One, both teams to score clicked in all bar two of the games, overs in nine with five games seeing at least four goals netted.

The fourth tier was comparatively drab, seven games in League Two had one goal or fewer on the final day.

There doesn’t seem to be an exact science to working out what games are going to have goals, nonetheless, I’ve lined up an OVER 2.5 GOALS ACCA and OVER 4.5 GOALS YANKEE from the games listed below.

Final day goals per game (24/25)

  • Championship: 3.33
  • League One: 3.5
  • League Two: 1.91

Overs acca and the Yankee

The first legs of the OVER 2.5 and OVER 4.5 GOALS ACCA’s come from Vale Park in League One.

Neither side will be plying their trade in the third tier next season. Port Vale are relegated, Lincoln are the champions.

Perfect scenario to cut loose and score some goals surely.

Port Vale have improved drastically since Jon Brady came in (W6 D6 L10) and with nothing to lose, they should go for this as they did in their 2-1 win over Stockport and 2-1 defeat at Plymouth.

The Imps are more than capable of covering this over 2.5 goals line on their own, as they have in eight games since the turn of the year.

Four of their last five games have seen at least three goals and they edged a seven-goal thriller with Wycombe in their penultimate game.

Into League Two for the rest of the legs where Swindon still have a chance of a top-seven finish.

They sit in eighth with 75 points, Chesterfield are a point and a place ahead of them and Grimsby are two points better off in sixth.

Swindon need to win and hope either of those two lose but here’s the kicker, Ian Holloway’s side host Chesterfield. What are the chances? So you can back Swindon at 5/4 to finish in the top seven or 15/8 to win on Saturday.

But Swindon can only get into the top seven if they beat Chesterfield so surely you just take the bigger price about them to win here - if you think they can.

I am more inclined to back the goals given the dynamic. Against the top eight, five of Chesterfield’s 13 have gone overs and 10 of Swindon’s games have.

The Robins have to go for this which should lead to goals.

Next up is Crawley against Salford for another winner takes all dynamic. A point could keep Crawley up but a win pretty much guarantees safety. As for their opponents, Salford need a win ideally and have to hope Cambridge don’t win.

It all points towards goals and nine of Crawley’s 13 games against the top seven have seen at least three.

The final stop is Harrogate’s clash with Barnet. The visitors have nothing to play for but have been banging in the goals recently.

The Bees have netted in each of their last 10, putting three past MK Dons, five past Fleetwood and six past Gillingham.

A point might prove to be enough for Harrogate but they head into this game in 23rd spot, staring down the barrel of relegation so there’s every chance they have to go for this game which brings goals into play.

Anytime goalscorer Trixie

Where else to start but at Exeter with JAYDEN WAREHAM.

His side need to win, as already covered, and he’s netted 19 times in the league this season. Wareham will fancy his chances of adding to that tally against a Bradford side that have conceded in 17 of 22 away trips.

Next it is to League Two where Harrogate host Barnet. The hosts need a result at the very least on Saturday but more than likely they will need three points - a dynamic which could see Barnet get joy on the counter attack.

As already mentioned, the Bees have been scoring for fun recently and CALLUM STEAD has had a hand in plenty. He scored five against Gillingham and has seven goals across his last four games.

The final stop is Swindon’s clash with Chesterfield. The visitors need to win to finish in the top seven, the visitors only need a point.

So, at some point, Swindon will need to go for this and at 2/1 backing their top goalscorer AARON DRINAN appeals.

Drinan has scored the most goals in the division with 22, he has 25 in all competitions and has netted in his last two home league appearances.

Odds correct at 15:00 BST (30/04/25)

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