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Jake's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 4

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Sun September 14, 2025 · 3M ago

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 39.5pts | Returned 53.54pts | P/L +14.04pts | ROI 36%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Sunday 14:00 - Burnley vs Liverpool

1pt Hannibal Mejbri to win 3+ fouls at 9/5 (Betfair)

Sunday 16:30 - Man City vs Man Utd

1pt Rodri to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)

1pt Leny Yoro to be carded at 9/2 (Sky Bet)

The international break came at the wrong time.

We were just building up a head of steam in the new season, with matchday three delivering over +10pts profit thanks to some player card winners - namely Will Hughes. What a beautiful man.

Brighton also delivered us +3.5pts after we backed them to beat Manchester City, so let's hope we've still got our eye in as the top flight returns.

This week has a nice eclectic mix of tips from different markets and prices, starting with Rice, Rice baby.

The Traitors...! | Premier League, EFL Championship, League One & Two Weekend Accumulator

Burnley vs Liverpool

It's going to be hard for Burnley to get anything against this Liverpool team, but slowing the game down could be their best chance, and HANNIBAL MEJBRI has been excellent at that this season.

He's picked up from where he left of last season in terms of winning fouls, averaging 2.65 fouls won per 90 in the Championship, and so far this season he's averaging 3.41 fouls won per 90.

The Moroccan has won 3+ FOULS in two of his three starts this season, and that looks an angle worth attacking again this weekend against Liverpool. It is worth noting that the one game Hannibal fell short of three fouls, his sub came on and sealed the deal.

That is absolutely something in our favour with this bet, but we may not need the super sub given Hannibal will be up against Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister and Ibrahim Konate, who will step into midfield.

Score prediction: Burnley 1-3 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Odds correct at 1505 BST (12/09/25)

Manchester City vs Manchester United

The Manchester derby has been drab in recent meetings, though Ruben Amorim has had Pep Guardiola's number. He's picked up one win and one draw with United, and hammered City with Sporting Lisbon.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Red Devils avoid defeat given how open City have looked defensively, but this game does have a feel of desperation for Pep's side, who have lost their last two and could be nine points behind Liverpool come kick-off.

It could be a bit spikier than many expect, and I'm going to chance a few player cards based on early-season data. The first is LENY YORO, who will be playing at right centre-back for United, TO BE CARDED at 9/2.

City have a host of injuries, the latest being Omar Marmoush, which could mean Jeremy Doku gets a start on the left wing, and in limited minutes this season he has looked his usual direct and dribbly self, with his sub appearance last time out seeing him get Brighton right back Joel Veltman booked.

Yoro was booked five times last season at an average of 0.39 per 90, with one of his cards coming in the Manchester derby.

We'll also chance RODRI TO BE CARDED at 15/4. The Spaniard missed all of last season but the season before he was booked eight times and sent off once in the league, and it's clear he's still finding his feet after a lengthy layoff.

United's system is proving a nightmare for opposing defensive midfielders, with all three so far making at least two fouls and two of the three getting carded (one thanks to super sub). That's because Bryan Mbeumo (6 fouls won), Matheus Cunha (5) and Bruno Fernandes (7) are occupying the same space, and even without Cunha, the other two can cause the current Ballon d'Or holder serious issues.

The referee here is Anthony Taylor, who has started the season in decent fashion from a card throwing perspective, dishing 22 in four outings across all competitions (5.5 per game). Hopefully he doesn't forget his cards like he did a few times last season.

Score prediction: Manchester City 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1545 BST (12/09/25)

Football betting tips: Premier League

Saturday 12:30 - Arsenal vs N Forest

1pt Declan Rice 1+ shot on target at 6/4 (bet365)

0.5pt Rice 2+ shots on target at 9/1 (bet365)

*Rice was named on the bench

Saturday 15:00

1pt Antoine Semenyo to score anytime in Bournemouth vs Brighton at 5/2 (Sky Bet)

1pt Yeremi Pino to be carded in C Palace vs Sunderland at 9/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)

1.5pts Matty Cash to be carded in Everton vs Aston Villa at 11/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair, bet365)

0.5pt Fulham win to nil vs Leeds at 23/10 (William Hill, BetVictor)

2pts Jorgen Strand Larsen to commit 2+ fouls in Newcastle vs Wolves at 6/5 (VOID)

Saturday 17:30 - West Ham vs Tottenham

1pt Soungoutou Magass to be carded at 3/1 (bet365)

1pt Mohammed Kudus to be carded at 5/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)

Saturday 20:00 - Brentford vs Chelsea

2pts Trevoh Chalobah to win 1+ fouls at 5/6 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)

0.5pt Chalobah to win 2+ fouls at 4/1 (Betfair)

Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest

It's a new dawn at Nottingham Forest, with Ange Postecoglou replacing Nuno Espirito Santo, and the Aussie's first game takes him back to North London to take on Arsenal. He didn't have a great record against Mikel Arteta while at Spurs (D1 L3), and another defeat is expected.

Arsenal are just a very good team, and a very trustworthy one. We know they are going to be tough to beat, and we know - for the most part - that they won't sweep aside any opponent due to being a tad withdrawn in attack.

The Ange effect may mean Forest are more open than they were under Nuno, which could give more chances for the hosts, but whatever the case DECLAN RICE's price for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET looks too big at 6/4.

Granted he is yet to register one this season, but he looked rusty in Arsenal's first three games, and during the international break was back to his fully-fit self.

After scoring against Andorra, he put in an explosive performance in Serbia, where Rice was the epitome of a box-to-box midfielder, getting forward at every opportunity which led to him taking seven shots and hitting the target with three of them.

He landed a shot on target in 14 of his last 24 starts for Arsenal last season, including against Ange's Spurs, taking a total of 17, so the price looks big. As does RICE 2+ SHOTS ON TARGET, and we'll have a small bet on that at 9/1.

The bigger line landed in two of his final 10 last term, both at the Emirates, and with Eberechi Eze and Noni Madueke likely drawing multiple players to them when on the ball, there could be more space for Rice to get shots away.

Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct at 1400 BST (11/09/25)

Bournemouth vs Brighton

Two good sides square off on the south coast but we simply have to chance ANTONIE SEMENYO TO SCORE ANYTIME at 5/2. The Ghanaian has been in electric form to start the new season, and will prove a handful once again.

Semenyo bagged an impressive brace as Bournemouth lost at Anfield before missing a few glaring chances against Wolves, and in his third outing he was a constant threat at Tottenham, taking three shots and testing the keeper twice.

All in all he's taken 10 shots equating to 1.80 xG, with his xG per 90 of 0.60 double the next best among his teammates. He's stepped up in a big way this term and should get opportunities here, and space to run into, with just how attacking the Seagulls are.

Brighton are vulnerable defensively away from home, conceding 1.65 xGA per game since the start of the Fabian Hurzeler era, which bodes well for Semenyo.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Odds correct at 1520 BST (11/09/25)

Crystal Palace vs Sunderland

Crystal Palace have made it into the long list of This Week's Acca and I expect them to win here, but I am in love with YEREMI PINO and his price of 9/2 TO BE CARDED.

Palace's new number 10 will be thrust into the starting XI for this game given Ismaila Sarr's injury on international duty, and his fouls and cards record last season in La Liga were sensational.

He averaged 2.26 fouls per 90 for Villarreal and collected a whopping 11 yellow cards at an average of 0.51 per 90, so the 9/2 is excellent value should he continue in his tenacious manner.

The referee for this one is Tom Bramall, who in his sole league outing this season brandished five yellows and a red, while he signed off last season showing eight yellows and three reds in his final two.

Pino will be buzzing around Sunderland's Granit Xhaka, who has drawn two fouls in two of his three league starts for the Black Cats, and in his debut for the Eagles, the Spaniard committed three fouls in just 19 minutes.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-0 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 1600 BST (11/09/25)

Everton vs Aston Villa

Former Aston Villa man Jack Grealish has made a blistering start to his Everton loan spell, registering a league-high four league assists and leading the top flight in expected assists per 90 (0.59).

He also leads the league in fouls won per 90, that after being hacked down seven times against Wolves last time out, and I suspect we'll see more of the same this week against a desperate Villa side.

Unai Emery's men have started very slowly, and need a result - and a goal - to get their season started, so will be right at it here and so backing Grealish's direct opponent, MATTY CASH, TO BE CARDED is an obvious play at a solid price of 11/4.

Confidence is flowing through Grealish once again, and he is getting fed the ball at almost every opportunity, which gives Cash plenty of chances to get stuck into him.

The Polish international has been booked once already this season, and was flashed seven yellows last season at an average of 0.30 per 90. One of those came when Villa faced Manchester City in what was one of Grealish's rare starts, with Cash fouling his opposite number three times.

Referee Simon Hooper is a cracking appointment for card backers, flashing 17 cards in three games this season.

Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Odds correct at 1000 BST (12/09/25)

Fulham vs Leeds

Fulham should prove too strong for Leeds here.

The Whites have looked toothless so far this Premier League season and I don't expect that to change at Craven Cottage, so we'll have a small bet on FULHAM WIN TO NIL at 23/10.

Daniel Farke's Leeds side have generated just 0.66 non-penalty xGF per game across their first three outings, two of which have come at home, and it is clear they are lacking at the top end of the pitch. Farke said so himself after the draw with Newcastle.

They will focus on being hard to beat, but without Ao Tanaka and Ethan Ampadu in midfield, Fulham should do enough to edge to a win. Marco Silva's side have conceded 1.02 non-penalty xGA per game across their three outings, which has featured two difficult away days (Brighton and Chelsea).

Now with more firepower in wide areas thanks to the signings of Samuel Chukwueze and Kevin - who scored five times in four European qualifiers for Shakhtar before moving to London - Fulham should prove even more difficult to contain.

Score prediction: Fulham 2-0 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Odds correct at 1020 BST (12/09/25)

Newcastle vs Wolves

Newcastle had offers for JORGEN STRAND LARSEN rejected in the summer transfer window and rather than increase their bid to the asking price, went and spent £15m more to sign Nick Woltemade. I think that may have angered the Norwegian, so it's perfect timing for the first game back to be Wolves visiting St James' Park.

He'll be fuming, and this already feisty and physical striker will be out to prove a point on Saturday - 'you should have signed ME'.

Whether that leads to him scoring I'm not so sure, but it will certainly result in him giving his all and putting himself about even more than usual, so his 6/5 price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS is simply too big.

Larsen has committed five fouls in two league outings already this season, while last season he was running at a 1.59 fouls per 90 average. Throw in the context, and the fact he will be up against physical centre-backs, and this looks a cracker.

Score prediction: Newcastle 3-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)

Odds correct at 1110 BST (12/09/25)

West Ham vs Tottenham

West Ham vs Tottenham is a pretty big rivalry, and the timing of this game feels important for both, so it could get spicy at the London Stadium.

Jarred Gillet is the man in the middle and he brandished 4.08 cards per game last season, with his tally of five in two games this season easily overlooked given how one-sided they were (Wolves 0-4 City, Arsenal 5-0 Leeds). He'll be kept on his toes here.

The last 10 head-to-heads have seen an average of 4.6 cards, so we'll be heading to that TO BE CARDED market, where Hammers new-boy SOUNGOUTOU MAGASSA looks a solid bet at 3/1.

Soungoutou Magassa loved to get stuck in at Monaco

I expect the Frenchman, signed from Monaco, to come straight into a sluggish midfield as the Hammers look to deal with an energetic Spurs front line, and his card record in France reads sensationally well for backers here.

He committed 2.47 fouls per 90 and picked up six cards in limited minutes, including being sent off on his final competitive game for Monaco, averaging 0.53 cards per 90, and should he get the nod will be tasked with containing Xavi Simons and the energetic Pape Sarr, not to mention former Hammer and Saturday's pantomime villain Mohammed Kudus.

There is a chance he starts on the bench given how new he is to the squad, so backing him with bet365 is the best way forward as they void bets on players who don't start, while also offering super sub if he starts and gets subbed. Let's hope he gets the nod though to help add legs and impetus in the Hammers midfield.

Speaking of KUDUS, we simply have to back him TO BE CARDED here too given the narrative and the fact he's a hot-head anyway. He's 5/1 returning to his old stomping ground, where he will be booed for the full 90 minutes and his former teammates will not hold back in their challenges.

Mohammed Kudus has previous in this fixture

He was carded in both of the Spurs vs West Ham fixtures last season when playing for the Hammers, including seeing red at Tottenham, and there's no reason to suspect his love for a card in this fixture will dissipate just because he's changed team.

This bet could win in a number of ways: Kudus gets wound up and lashes out, he commits a cynical foul, or he scores and whips his shirt off. The goal and card double is 18/1.

Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1330 BST (12/09/25)

Brentford vs Chelsea

Igor Thiago is a handful, and the 6ft 3in Brazilian is a foul machine because of it. He throws himself about and commits a lot of little fouls, helped by Brentford being happy to play direct up to him.

So far this season he's committed 3.0 fouls per 90, so on Sunday we'll be taking TREVOH CHALOBAH TO WIN 1+ FOULS and 2+ FOULS.

We are taking Chelsea's Chalaboh instead of Tosin Adarabioyo because two of the three right centre-backs that Thiago has faced this season have been fouled. When looking at goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher's distribution map, we can see why.

Over 80% of his 'long passes' are pinged into the opposition's right hand channel, where Thiago meets the right centre-back for an aerial duel, which is a great opportunity for him to commit a foul.

Chalobah has a good record at winning fouls too, last season averaging 1.0 fouls won per 90 and this season 1.33 per 90, with the 1+ line landing in two of three and the 2+ landing last time out against Fulham.

We are taking the defender fouls won instead of Thiago fouls committed on a price basis, with Thiago already extremely short across the board (1/8 for 1+ foul committed, 8/15 for 2+, 15/8 for 3+).

Score prediction: Brentford 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 1405 BST (12/09/25)

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