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Jake's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 25/26 Matchday 30

Football
Mon March 16, 2026 · 1M ago

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 427pts | Returned 476.63pts | P/L +49.63pts | ROI 11.6%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Monday 20:00 - Brentford vs Wolves

1pt Mathias Jensen to be carded at 7/1 (bet365) - min price 4/1

1pt Yegor Yarmoliuk to be carded at 9/2 (Sky Bet, bet365) - min price 3/1

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

The last few Premier League gameweeks have gone about as well as we could have wished for. We followed a +17.9pt weekend with +32pts in the midweek round of fixtures to pull us firmly into the green with nine gameweeks to go.

There will be no cries of 'stop the count' in this column though. We're aiming to keep the foot down, and hopefully some familiar names and bets can help us do so.

It's back to business after a weekend off thanks to the FA Cup, and there are plenty of angles laced with value, with shots the order of the day for Saturday in particular.

Brentford vs Wolves

Europe-chasing Brentford host in-form Wolves on Monday night, with the bottom side looking for their third straight league win having toppled Aston Villa and Liverpool in back-to-back games.

I'm staying well clear of the result market, and instead heading to cards given the appointment of Stuart Attwell at the Gtech, with the whistleblower averaging 4.67 cards per game in the Premier League this season.

Yerson Mosquera was the first port of call, and is 23/10 here which did appeal given the ref and his potential opponent, but I want to chance some bigger-priced Brentford midfielders, starting with MATHIAS JENSEN, who should continue to play in a deeper role.

Mathias Jensen (left) and Yehor Yarmoliuk (right) look good card candidates on Monday

He's 7/1 TO BE CARDED and that's worth a poke given he's picked up two cards in his last four league games and will be up against the lively Mateus Mane, who has drawn 2.62 fouls per 90 this season.

Three of the last six midfielders to have faced Wolves have been carded, with Mane in particular very tricky and quick in transition. For that reason we'll also chance YEHOR YARMOLIUK TO BE CARDED as well at a generous 9/2.

The Ukrainian has seven cards to his name in the league this season so is no stranger to the referee's book, and he's dovetailed perfectly with Jensen over the last four Brentford league games.

Jensen was booked against Arsenal, Yarmoliuk against Brighton and Burnley, and Jensen was again booked last time out against Bournemouth. Let's hope at least on of them is flashed a card by Attwell on Monday in a pretty big game for the Bees European aspirations.

Score prediction: Brentford 1-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Odds correct at 17:10 GMT (13/03/26)

Already advised

Saturday 15:00

2.5pts Alex Scott 2+ total shots in Burnley vs Bournemouth at evens (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 4/6

1pt Bashir Humphreys to be carded in Burnley vs Bournemouth at 5/1 (bet365) - min price 3/1

2pts Jack Hinshelwood 2+ total shots in Sunderland vs Brighton at 13/8 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 11/10

0.75pts Jack Hinshelwood 3+ total shots in Sunderland vs Brighton at 5/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/2

Saturday 17:30 - Arsenal vs Everton

1.5pts Dwight McNeil to make 2+ tackles at 11/8 (bet365) - min price evs

Saturday 17:30 - Chelsea vs Newcastle

2.5pts Malick Thiaw 1+ total shots at 10/11 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 8/13

2pts Sven Botman 1+ total shots at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 4/5

Saturday 20:00 - West Ham vs Man City

1pt Tomas Soucek 1+ shot on target at 12/5 (bet365) - min price 6/4

Sunday 14:00

1.5pts Leeds to win Draw no Bet vs C Palace at 21/20 (General)

1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist in Man Utd vs Aston Villa at 3/1 (Boylesports) - min price 8/5

2.5pts Elliot Anderson 2+ total shots in N Forest vs Fulham at 6/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 8/11

0.75pt Elliot Anderson 3+ total shots in N Forest vs Fulham at 19/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 2/1

Sunday 16:30 - Liverpool vs Tottenham

1pt Richarlison to be carded at 15/4 (bet365) - min price 5/2

1pt Richarlison to score anytime at 10/3 (General) - min price 5/2

0.5pt Richarlison to score anytime and be carded at 16/1 (bet365) - min price 10/1

Burnley vs Bournemouth

Burnley have given it a good go in the last few weeks but are doomed. Their last home game saw them 3-0 down, come back to 3-3, score two goals that were disallowed, and then concede a late winner to Brentford. Another whacky game could be on the cards here against Bournemouth.

ALEX SCOTT continues to plunder shots, and the even money about him to rack up another 2+ TOTAL SHOTS is must-bet material. It's a bet that has landed in eight of his last nine starts and has been very kind to the column, so while ever the price is there we are going back in.

He's had more shots (24) in his last nine that he had in his previous 22 (21), averaging 2.61 shots per 90 in this recent stretch. Throw in that Burnley concede the most shots in the league (467 - 16.1 per game) and this is a very solid bet.

We'll also go back in on our good friend BASHIR HUMPHREYS TO BE CARDED, with the price still not caught up to his recent cynical turn. After getting booked last time out against Everton, he's now been carded in five of his last 10 Premier League starts, averaging 0.42 cards per 90.

The 5/1 available is therefore huge, especially as he'll be tasked with containing Marcus Tavernier and/or Amine Adli, while we also have a good referee appointment for cards in Peter Bankes (4.14 per game).

Score prediction: Burnley 2-3 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)

Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (12/03/26)

Sunderland vs Brighton

Sunderland's season has been an exceptional one, but they will be bitterly disappointed to have been eliminated by Port Vale in the FA Cup last week, especially given they don't have any relegation fears. It will be interesting to see how they approach the final throes of the campaign given their job is effectively done.

It's similar for Brighton in a sense, but Fabian Hurzeler is under considerably more pressure as Seagulls boss, meaning he will need his players to continue to perform and win a fair few games from now until the end of the season. One player who has been playing well is JACK HINSHELWOOD, and we'll go back in on him to have 2+ TOTAL SHOTS.

He's 13/8 this time against a Sunderland side who are happy to sit deep and face a lot of shots - indeed only Burnley concede more shots than the Black Cats (427 - 14.7 per game).

Hinshelwood has gone on an Alex Scott-esque shooting streak, firing at least one in all of his last seven starts, with the 2+ winning in six of those and 3+ TOTAL SHOTS banking in four of the seven, averaging 2.68 shots per 90 in that run. We'll back the higher line too at 5/1, a bet that landed against Arsenal last time out.

He's been playing further forward in the last five games, first as a box-to-box midfielder and in the most recent two starts he's played in the number 10. He should play there again which only enhances my excitement for the bet.

Score prediction: Sunderland 1-2 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Arsenal vs Everton

This is a big game for both teams. Arsenal are chasing down a league title and have a second leg in Europe a few days after this, while Everton are just a point behind seventh which could be enough for European football. But, David Moyes' record away at the best sides is miserable.

Since he took over West Ham in December 2019, he has played away at Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool 24 times and has lost 23 of those. His one success did come at the Emirates though.

A home win in some capacity does appeal, but we'll have a rare foray into the tackles market and back DWIGHT MCNEIL 2+ TACKLES at 11/8. Since coming back into the team, McNeil has impressed with his defensive responsibilities, and he'll be needed in that capacity at the weekend.

This bet doesn't require the tackle to be won for it be counted, and taking McNeil's raw tackle numbers make this look like value. Across his last nine starts he's made 16 tackles at an average of 1.96 per 90, with the 2+ landing in five of nine.

A look at how opponents fare in tackles against Arsenal's left side also makes for positive reading, with them making an average of 6.33 tackles per game over the last six league outings. More of the same here and McNeil should hit his required two.

Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)

Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (12/03/26)

Chelsea vs Newcastle

Both Chelsea and Newcastle played in midweek in the Champions League, and both play again in a few days time, so we should expect rotation here, even if the Blues have a mountain to climb against PSG, being 5-2 down on aggregate.

One player who should (hopefully) start again for the visitors is MALICK THIAW, and the 10/11 for him to have 1+ TOTAL SHOT looks massive given his recent record and Chelsea's issues defending set-pieces.

The German defender is a handful from set-pieces, registering at least one shot in all of his last six league games and nine of his last 11 starts across all competitions. He's averaging 0.98 shots per 90 in the top flight this term, and plays in the side who take the most set-piece shots in the league (146 - 5.0 per game).

Chelsea have conceded the fourth-most goals (14) and second most xG (14.63) from dead-balls this season, and that hasn't changed since Liam Rosenior took over. The Blues are conceding 35% of their shots from dead-ball situations this term, so Thiaw looks well placed to fire get his head on a corner or free-kick here.

Of course, it goes without saying that if Thiaw isn't in the starting XI, cash out the bet. It seems highly likely that SVEN BOTMAN will come in again alongside Thiaw and we'll back him to have 1+ TOTAL SHOT too at 5/4.

Botman has become a huge set-piece threat too, registering a shot in nine of his last 12 starts. He's also fired 2+ shots four times in that run and scored twice, which hammers home how much of a handful he is from set-pieces.

Score prediction: Chelsea 2-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (12/03/26)

West Ham vs Manchester City

I'd give West Ham a real chance of adding to Manchester City's misery on Saturday if it wasn't for the absence of Crysencio Summerville. He's been the Hammers' best player this season and is set to be out until after the international break - a huge blow for Nuno's men.

City are reeling from a Champions League thumping at the hands of Real Madrid in midweek, but can't take their eye off the ball in the league, and will surely field a strong side at the London Stadium. Defensively though, they remain very vulnerable.

TOMAS SOUCEK has been a huge attacking threat since coming back into the team and looks nicely priced at 12/5 to fire 1+ SHOT ON TARGET here. It's a be that has won in all of his last three starts and four of his last five since moving to a more advanced midfield role, netting twice in that run.

Across the league season he's averaged 1.14 shots per 90 and 0.70 shots on target per 90, with that latter figure bettered only by Enzo Fernandez and Bruno Guimaraes among Premier League midfielders, while his shot on target percentage of 61% leads the league.

At the prices he's worth a dart, especially with how well West Ham have been playing of late, and with City potentially rotating.

Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (12/03/26)

Crystal Palace vs Leeds

Crystal Palace's last league win against Tottenham has all-but secured their Premier League status meaning they can solely focus on the Europa Conference League, and after a goalless draw against AEK Larnaca at Selhurst Park, they will surely have all eyes on the second leg in Cyprus.

That's excellent news for Leeds who need a positive result after a run of four without a win in the league. More good news for the Whites - so far this season Palace's league games to have followed a European game have not gone well either.

Since the start of the league phase, Palace have played eight league games after a Thursday night fixture and won just once, losing six.

That sole victory came against bottom side Wolves in a game where the basement boys missed a penalty at 0-0 in the first half and had a man harshly sent off after an hour, while Leeds inflicted one of those defeats in a 4-1 thumping at Elland Road.

At odds-against we simply have to back LEEDS DRAW NO BET. Palace have to be opposed not only due the European sandwich, but also the fact that Selhurst Park has been far from a fortress.

Across all competitions, Oliver Glasner's side have won just six of 21 in front of their own fans, with three league wins in 14. The reason we are taking Leeds draw no bet is that the Eagles have lost just six of those 21, while the Whites have won only one away game all season - against Wolves.

Daniel Farke's side have at least been tough to beat on the road of late, losing just one of their last seven on the road, avoiding defeat at Liverpool, Chelsea and Aston Villa, but this feels like one they really could get a win, but at the very least I expect them to avoid defeat and get our stakes returned.

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Odds correct at 13:30 GMT (13/03/26)

Manchester United vs Aston Villa

Are we at a point in the season where Aston Villa boss Unai Emery, who has a thin squad, key injuries and a track record for success in Europe, starts to prioritise the Europa League? I wouldn't be at all surprised. After all, performances and results in the Premier League have really dropped off of late.

It's just one league win in their last six despite playing only one side in the top six, and they now have Chelsea and Liverpool breathing down their necks. Finishing in the top five while balancing the UEL is a tough ask given the chasing pack, and the UEL does come with Champions League qualification as well as a much coveted trophy. I know what I'd be doing.

Either way a home win looks likely given the extended rest Manchester United have had, and the performances they've put on at Old Trafford under Michael Carrick, where they've won four from four, have been impressive. 3/4 for the home win looks a tad tight though.

I'm staggered we can still get 3/1 about BRUNO FERNANDES 1+ ASSIST, and at that price just has to be backed once again. He's the league leader with 14 assists and has landed this bet in both of his last two after three without one.

Across his last 18 league starts this bet has landed a whopping 12 times. Over the course of the season Bruno has created 92 chances in the top flight which is 36 - yes THIRTY SIX - more than the next best, with his 22 big chances created also league leading.

In a game where his team is 3/4 to win, the price for him to register another assist is simply too big. I expected closer to 6/4 given how prolific he's been.

Score prediction: Manchester United 2-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)

Odds correct at 13:30 GMT (13/03/26)

Nottingham Forest vs Fulham

Where will Nottingham Forest's heads be at? Like with many teams playing in Europe this week, their second leg in the Europa League is soon after this but they really can't drop the ball in the league. They are after all just a point above the drop zone.

They have to go to Denmark and overturn a 1-0 deficit which will be a tough ask, before a massive league game against Tottenham next week. It's a big week or so, and Vitor Pereira has a huge selection dilemma either here or in midweek.

Fulham made the bizarre decision to make nine changes last week for the FA Cup, ultimately losing to Southampton and missing the chance of an FA Cup quarter-final. An odd choice given they are mid-table in the top flight.

The hosts will view this as very winnable, especially as relegation rivals West Ham beat the Cottagers last time out, and will no doubt be up to their new-found shot-happy tricks. They fired off 22 shots in midweek, meaning they've averaged 16.3 shots per game under the new manager.

ELLIOT ANDERSON has seen a huge increase in the attempts he's taking as a result of him getting more involved in forward areas, and the price remains backable for him to have 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at 6/5.

This bet has landed in five of six under Pereira, and 3+ TOTAL SHOTS has landed in four of six since the managerial change, so we'll have a nibble at the higher line too at nearly 4/1. He's landed the higher line against both Liverpool and Manchester City too.

Fulham have conceded 12.8 shots per game in their away games this season, while Forest are in for 15 shots according to the market, in which case the chances of Anderson being involved in two or three are very high based on recent outings.

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Odds correct at 13:30 GMT (13/03/26)

Liverpool vs Tottenham

I can't quite believe Igor Tudor is still in a job at Tottenham. Results have been horrific, performances have been worst, and we are yet to see anything from his tenure to suggest he can turn this around. Heck, he doesn't even know what his best team is.

They head into the weekend's trip to Liverpool one point above the drop zone and could be in the bottom three come kick-off which would be quite something. It's really hard to see anything other than a home win, even if the Reds have themselves been hit and miss of late. Much more hit than Spurs mind.

Joe has the home win covered with an accompanying BTTS and Over 3.5 in the match preview, so I'll swerve the result based market in favour of player cards, where RICHARLISON rates a cracking bet at 15/4.

The Brazilian started at Atletico Madrid in midweek, getting carded in that shambles of a performance, and will hopefully get the nod again here in a game where the former Everton striker will be playing on the edge as he usually does, channelled by frustration, as he heads back to Anfield once again, where he's been the pantomime villain on plenty of occasions.

Richarlison has a history of getting carded at Anfield

In fact, he's been carded in four of his last six league trips to Anfield as a player for Everton and Spurs, which is quite the record, while this season he's been carded nine times in all competition at a cards per 90 average of 0.41 which makes the price on offer massive here before factoring in his record at Anfield.

He can get booked in a multitude of ways which is always a bonus. Fighting, dissent, diving, foul accumulation, cynical foul or an overzealous celebration - he has it all in his locker.

The referee appointment is a good one for cards too, with Chris Kavanagh averaging just shy of 4.0 cards per game in the league, while there could be some major head-loss from Spurs once again. Let's not forget the reverse fixture saw two Tottenham players sent off and nine cards in total - including one for our boy Richy.

He also scored in that game, and as good as his card record is at Anfield, his goal record is equally as good, netting in four of his last six visits despite extremely limited playing time. In those last six league visits, he's played just 327 minutes, meaning a goal per 90 average of 1.10, highlighting how much of a constant thorn he's been in the Reds' side - albeit his side has rarely come out on top.

It's fair to say he loves playing at this stadium and against this opponent, and Spurs, for all their shortcomings, have shown they do have goals in them still, so we'll back Spurs' top scorer RICHARLISON TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/3, especially as there is a chance he could be on penalties.

His Anfield record aside, Richarlison has been effective with his minutes this season, scoring nine times and averaging 0.41 xG per 90, so can threaten the Reds again.

He has scored or been carded in all of his last six visits to Anfield so hopefully backing both separately will give us at least one winner, but we have to chance the combo and back RICHARLISON TO SCORE AND BE CARDED at 16/1 here too.

There is a chance these two events could happen simultaneously should he score and take his shirt off - as he did in 22/23 when he equalised late on only for Liverpool to go straight up the other end and score - or he scores and ends up scrapping with opposition players for the ball if Spurs are trailing - just as he did a few weeks ago against Fulham.

Richarlison scored and took his shirt off in 22/23

The double has landed in two of his last six Anfield visits, with it winning three times already this season including the reverse meeting.

Having done so much digging into the bonkers Brazilian I am fully prepared for him to be benched. Not to fear though, as that was the case in his last three visits to Anfield and he made a hell of an impact off the bench, with a goal and card in 22/23, a goal in 23/24 and a card in 24/25. He was also a sub in the reverse meeting too, so this bet will have chance as long as Richarlison enters the fray at some point.

Score prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Odds correct at 15:45 GMT (13/03/26)

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