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Jake Osgathorpe's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Premier League tips and Super 6 predictions: 24/25 Matchday 34

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Mon April 28, 2025 · 8M ago
  • Jake's Predictions (before this weekend): Staked 446.5pts | Returned 473.38pts | P/L +26.88pts | ROI 6%

Football betting tips: Premier League

Sunday

1.5pts Antoine Semenyo and Justin Kluivert both 1+ shot on target in Bournemouth vs Man Utd (14:00) at 5/4 (bet365)

1pt Mohamed Salah 1+ assist in Liverpool vs Spurs (16:30) at 2/1 (Boylesports, Betfred)

1pt Mohamed Salah to score anytime and 1+ assist vs Spurs (16:30) at 11/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)

0.5pt Mohamed Salah 2+ assists in Liverpool vs Spurs (16:30) at 14/1 (Boylesports)

0.25pts Mohamed Salah to score a hat-trick and be carded in Liverpool vs Spurs (16:30) at 141/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

Squeaky bum time! Penultimate EFL weekend PREVIEWED!

Last week ended in -0.1pts so nothing added and nothing lost in terms of the season-long profit and loss. We were right about some things - Wolves beating United - and wrong about others - John McGinn fouling - but we move on to gameweek 34.

We have only seven league games this weekend with the FA Cup semi-finals taking place, and a few things can be decided. Ipswich will be relegated if they fail to beat Newcastle, while Liverpool need just a point at home to Tottenham to clinch the title.

The race for Europe is where the intrigue lies, with eighth place likely to get a Conference League spot, and it's tight between eighth-placed Bournemouth (49pts) and 11th-placed Brentford (46pts).

We've a mix of selections this weekend, goalscorers, player shots and a lot of goals, so let's hope we get on the right side.

Bournemouth vs Manchester United

Bournemouth look appetising to just win the game on Sunday. The 7/10 with William Hill nearly made the staking plan with the Cherries looking better of late and United potentially resting and rotating heavily ahead of the first leg of their Europa League semi-final in Bilbao.

Ruben Amorim has said as much: “We have to be really focused on the Europa League and take risks sometimes with kids in the Premier League. Fans have to understand that we have to focus on the Europa League.”

The hosts still have plenty to play for too, sitting eighth in the table with it highly likely that position will see them in Europe next season. Instead of taking a pro-Bournemouth angle in the 1X2, I'll instead combine ANTOINE SEMENYO and JUSTIN KLUIVERT to both have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET.

It's highly likely that this game follows a pattern of Bournemouth swarming United, who get deeper and deeper, which results in plenty of attempts for the Cherries.

Kluivert is averaging 1.24 shots on target per game and Semenyo 1.18 over the course of the season, with this bet winning in 11 of Kluivert's 14 home league starts and 11 of Semenyo's 16. These two players are shoot-on-sight-merchants, and their record suggests they hit the target regularly.

I was close to putting up both to score, with Kluivert 2/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair) and Semenyo 5/2 (Sky Bet), but neither have been prolific at the Vitality this season, scoring just two and four home league goals respectively.

Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-0 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Liverpool vs Tottenham

A single point will secure Liverpool a second Premier League title on Sunday, so it will be party time at Anfield. Their visitors have bigger fish to fry, with a Europa League semi-final upcoming, but Tottenham have been one of the worst teams in the league for quite some time.

They head to Anfield having lost 13 of their last 20 league games, so it's no surprise to see them sit fifth-bottom in the table. They have been handled by the best teams in the league this season, losing 10 of 11 games against top six sides by an aggregate of 22-10.

Liverpool haven't quite had that massive home result this season, their biggest victory being a 4-1 success over Ipswich, with control the name of the Arne Slot game, but we could see the handbrake come off here with the Reds in partying mood and the pressure off.

That should mean plenty of goals for the hosts, so again I'm going to return to the main man, MOHAMED SALAH.

This is Salah's stage. He's led this team to the title with a sensational season, is a shoo-in to win the PFA Player of the Year and can still break some huge records.

With three more assists he'll break the single season assist record and join only Thierry Henry as the two players to register 20+ goals and 20+ assists in a single Premier League campaign. Three more goals along with two more assists in his remaining five games will see him become the first ever player to score 30+ and register 20+ assists.

Like last week, we'll back him to register 1+ ASSIST at an appetising 2/1.

Salah has 18 to his name already, with seven of those coming in 16 games at Anfield, and given he's chasing history, I think it's worth continuing to back him to be provider at the prices available, especially against a team who concede so many good chances and won't be focused on this game.

We'll also double-dip and back SALAH 2+ ASSISTS at 14/1, just in case he goes full-on provider in a bid to get into the 20-20 club.

Salah leads the league in both big chances created from open play (22) and chances created from open play (74), both by a distance, so should again give us a run for our money.

He created two chances last week against Leicester but neither were converted by his teammates, but while he is now four without a goal, last weekend was the first time he and his team were playing freer, being allowed to attack and take a lot of shots. Salah himself took seven shots and hit the post twice with his attempts totalling 1.09 xG.

That was promising and suggested that his teammates were feeding him the ball more than in recent weeks - in the three games prior he had just three total shots - and with the title wrapped up, the only thing left for the Reds is to help their star player achieve history, so I think he'll get ample opportunity here to have a big game, so we'll also back him to SCORE AND ASSIST at 11/4.

Salah's averaged 0.83 goals and 0.55 assists per 90 in the league this season, and this bet has landed in 12 of his 33 league starts. Taking his stats at face value, I'd expect to see a price closer to 9/5, and that's before we factor in Spurs' priorities lie elsewhere.

He also loves playing against Spurs, with this bet landing in three of his last four starts against Ange Postecoglou's side, with him scoring and assisting twice in the reverse, a game Liverpool scored six and racked up 5.63 xG.

Sky Bet offer 29/1 for a repeat (2G + 2A) on Sunday, but for those interested in laddering, Salah is 16/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair) to score 2+ goals in the match, 7/1 to score 2+ goals and register 1+ assist (Sky Bet) and 12/ to score hat-trick (12/1).

I'll leave it a just the assist and the goal and assist, but will throw a ridiculous dart at SALAH TO SCORE A HAT-TRICK AND BE CARDED at 141/1. Look at me channelling my inner Jimmy the Punt.

The logic is simple; Liverpool will win the title on Sunday, will put on a show for their fans, will feed Salah at every opportunity and should he bag a hat-trick he'll whip his shirt off. He's done it once already this season when scoring his second and the eventual winner against Southampton.

There is a chance he does this after scoring once or even twice depending on the game state, and it's 40/1 for 2+ goals and a card, but he will definitely get carried away should he bag a hatty - right?

The Egyptian hasn't yet scored a hat-trick this season, in fact he hasn't score a league hat-trick since October 2021, but he'll be champing at the bit to take advantage of a poor side and add another reason to celebrate.

New contract, league title, hat-trick, top scorer wrapped up, let's get lairy, Salah.

Score prediction: Liverpool 5-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 40/1)

Already advised

Saturday

2pts Marc Cucurella 1+ total shot in Chelsea vs Everton (12:30) at 17/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

0.5pt Marc Cucurella to score anytime in Chelsea vs Everton (12:30) at 14/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt Over 4.5 goals in Newcastle vs Ipswich (15:00) at 5/2 (Betfred)

1.5pts Jorgen Strand Larsen to score anytime in Wolves vs Leicester (15:00) at 6/4 (bet365)

Chelsea vs Everton

This game comes just days before Chelsea's massive, season defining Conference League semi-final clash with ***checks notes***; Djurgarden?

I say it in jest, but in recent weeks Enzo Maresca has rotated key players in the league ahead of UECL matches, so that fact alone immediately has me happy to swerve the Blues at 8/13.

They need to win this game given they are sixth in the table and two points off the Champions League places, but I can't trust them. Everton have lost just three of David Moyes' 14 league games in charge, the most recent defeats coming against champions-elect Liverpool and reigning champions Manchester City.

The Toffees will be a tough nut to crack, but I have to revisit a selection involving a player who has been kind to us this season, and that is MARC CUCURELLA.

While he does eat paella and drink Estrella, he also gets into scoring positions regularly, and his price for 1+ TOTAL SHOT is simply massive again here at 17/20. I'd still take the 8/11 available with Betfair and Paddy Power.

Across his last 20 starts for Chelsea in all competitions, Cucu has delivered the bounty on this bet 15 times, averaging 1.17 shots per 90 in that time. At home, this bet has landed in 10 of his last 11 starts, with his average increasing to 1.60 shots per 90 in front of his own fans.

He's scored in six of those 11 home games too, so at 14/1 we simply have to go back in again on CUCURELLA TO SCORE ANYTIME.

Those six he's scored are the most by an Chelsea player in that time in league and Conference League matches, so the price looks massive.

Score prediction: Chelsea 1-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)

Brighton vs West Ham

Two teams bang out of form meet as Graham Potter takes his newest team, West Ham, to face Brighton.

Both sides are winless in six games across all competitions, so I'm in no rush to get anyone on side. The hosts are the ones most desperate for a win as they sit 10th in the table and just one point off eighth, but they are so unreliable against poor teams.

The Seagulls have failed to beat any of the bottom three at the Amex, and were held by Wolves too, so odds-on quotes look extremely short. I'm happy to leave this game alone from a punting perspective, though if pressed, Matt O'Riley 2+ total shots (4/5 - bet365) would get the nod with the Dane set to start in the number 10 position again here due to injuries.

Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)

Newcastle vs Ipswich

Every season, as the campaign winds down, the goal output spikes and you get some freaky results. That could be the case at St. James' Park, where a Newcastle side who are in the groove in front of their own fans, host an Ipswich team that will be relegated.

The Tractor Boys could open up and have a real go in the next few weeks, not that they need too much encouragement, while the Magpies have been goal crazy already of late.

Newcastle have seen OVER 4.5 GOALS land in four of their last six home league games, and it looks worthwhile backing another hugely high-scoring contest on Saturday.

Eddie Howe should be back on the touchline here and he'll want to see a dominating performance here as his side chase a top five berth, and they are certainly in the mood, creating an abundance of chances in attack and looking simply relentless.

They have seen five or more goals in five of their 16 home games this season, the second most in the league, while Ipswich, fresh a 4-0 hammering at home to Arsenal, have been involved in the second most over 4.5 goal games this season (8).

Five of their 16 away games have eclipsed the required line, and defensively they continue to look vulnerable, but with the shackles now off, I suspect we see a real attacking approach on Saturday that will hopefully lead to a lot of goals.

For those not wanting to reach for five goals, the over 3.5 is a solid bet at 11/10, but I'm feeling a little greedy.

Score prediction: Newcastle 5-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Southampton vs Fulham

Fulham look a big price here at 7/10, but I just can't bring myself to back them. Southampton are one point away from eclipsing Derby's record low points total, and now playing with the shackles off, could throw up some surprise results.

The Cottagers have a poor record against the worst teams this season, winning just two of seven against the current bottom four and collecting 10 points, in fact picking up more wins and points in their seven games against the top four (3 wins, 11 points).

It's another no bet for me here, though it wouldn't at all be surprising were Fulham to win big at St. Mary's, just as the rest of the top half have this season. In seven home games against the 10 Southampton are pointless and have lost by an aggregate of 22-5. Fulham -1 handicap is 9/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair) for those interested.

Score prediction: Southampton 0-2 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Wolves vs Leicester

It's official, Leicester have been put out of their misery, though not before failing to score in front of their own fans again... The Foxes have been utterly tragic under Ruud van Nistelrooy, and who knows what we'll get from them performance-wise in the remaining few games.

We do know they will continue to ship chances and goals, and with Wolves in fine form having won five straight, all against current bottom seven sides, the Old Gold could rack up a few on Saturday.

That makes JORGEN STRAND LARSEN's price TO SCORE ANYTIME jump off the page, with Wolves' starting striker available at 6/4.

He's finishing the season in a flourish, scoring in four of those five aforementioned Wolves wins, netting five times in total. Larsen has 12 on his tally for the season, with his xG per 90 average of 0.35 a good return given he plays for a team who have been in the relegation mix for most of the season.

A nod to Tom for highlighting Larsen's form a couple of weeks ago in his notebook column.

Score prediction: Wolves 4-2 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 40/1)

Super 6 predictions for round 54

  • Newcastle 5-1 Ipswich
  • Brighton 1-1 West Ham
  • Wolves 4-2 Leicester
  • Southampton 0-2 Fulham
  • Bournemouth 2-0 Manchester United
  • Liverpool 5-2 Tottenham

Saturday's tips - odds correct at 1615 BST (24/04/25)

Sunday's 1400 tips - odds correct at 1030 BST (25/04/25)

Sunday's 1630 tips - odds correct at 1300 BST (25/04/25)

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