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Jake's predictions

Jake Osgathorpe's Champions League tips and predictions: 25/26 round of 16 first leg

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Mon March 09, 2026 · 1h ago

Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 427pts | Returned 476.63pts | P/L +49.63pts | ROI 11.6%

Football betting tips: Champions League

Tuesday 17:45 - Galatasaray vs Liverpool

2.5pts Virgil van Dijk 1+ total shot at 5/6 (bet365) - min price 7/10

Tuesday 20:00

2.5pts Harry Kane to score anytime in Atalanta vs Bayern Munich at 4/5 (General)

0.5pt Kane to score 2+ goals in Atalanta vs Bayern Munich at 4/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)

2pts Kolo Muani to commit 2+ fouls in Atletico Madrid vs Spurs at 11/10 (Betway) - min price 8/11

2pts Mathys Tel to win 2+ fouls in Atletico Madrid vs Spurs at 11/8 (bet365) - min price evs

2pts Newcastle to score 2+ goals vs Barcelona at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)

Wednesday 17:45 - Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal

1pt Edmond Tapsoba to be carded at 4/1 (bet365) - min price 5/2

Wednesday 20:00

1.5pts Bodo/Glimt draw no bet vs Sporting Lisbon at 10/11 (General)

0.5pt Bodo/Glimt to win and BTTS vs Sporting Lisbon at 10/3 (General)

1.5pts Over 3.5 goals in PSG vs Chelsea at 6/4 (Betfred)

1pt Joao Pedro to score anytime in PSG vs Chelsea at 12/5 (bet365)

1pt Bernardo Silva to be carded in Real Madrid vs Man City at 10/3 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/2

1pt Matheus Nunes to be carded in Real Madrid vs Man City at 4/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) - min price 5/2

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair

Galatasaray vs Liverpool

We've seen this game once already this season, and it was a narrow win for Galatasaray thanks to an early penalty. That was in the middle of Liverpool's real rough patch, and while they are still not fully trustworthy, it would be a surprise to see them beaten again.

Recent away European performances from Arne Slot's side have been vintage though, winning to nil against both Inter and Marseille, so a Reds win did get a second glance at around the 4/5 mark, but given the Premier League's set-piece dominance, we have to head down that route for a bet.

Three sides from the English top flight sit in the top five for most set-piece goals and most set-piece xG in the Champions League, one of those being Liverpool. They have in fact scored the most goals from dead-ball situations in the UCL (8), and can threaten another against a Galatasaray side who have conceded the third most set-piece xG.

Step forward, VIRGIL VAN DIJK. He's 5/6 for just 1+ TOTAL SHOT, which looks a cracking price. Liverpool managed eight shots from set-pieces in the previous meeting with Galatasaray, while Van Dijk has registered at least one shot in seven of his last 10 appearances as well as 16 of his last 25.

This bet has landed six times in his eight UCL matches, where the towering Dutch defender has averaged a whopping 2.00 shots per 90, making the 4/1 for him to have 2+ shots appeal initially, but he hasn't covered this line in any of his UCL away games. We'll stick to just the one shot.

Score prediction: Galatasaray 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Odds correct at 12:00 GMT (09/03/26)

Atalanta vs Bayern Munich

Atalanta impressively eliminated Bayern Munich's closest Bundesliga challengers Dortmund in the last round, overturning a 2-0 first leg deficit with a 4-1 home success. They have firepower and are a very dangerous home side, but defensively they remain suspect.

That's not ideal with Bayern in town, as their attack is on another scale. Not only that, but they have a huge rest advantage of their Italian opponents. Bayern played Friday night and this will be only their seventh games since February 1st, while Atalanta played Saturday and this will be their 11th match in that date frame.

I suspect Bayern will win here and score at least twice, which makes the 4/5 about HARRY KANE TO SCORE ANYTIME a lovely bet. Sometimes the obvious bet is the best bet.

Kane was rested at the weekend so he can be fully ready for this, and is on a red-hot scoring streak, scoring in seven straight across all competitions. In the Champions League he's scored in five of eight, netting eight in total and averaging a whopping 0.98 xG per 90.

Given he's scored multiple goals in the same game 14 times in 30 matches this season - an utterly insane record - including in three of eight Champions League games, we'll also have a nibble on KANE TO SCORE 2+ GOALS at 4/1.

Score prediction: Atalanta 1-3 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Odds correct at 12:00 GMT (09/03/26)

Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham

It's going to be really interesting to see how Igor Tudor's Tottenham approach this game. To put it bluntly, despite this being a Champions League last 16 tie, Spurs have bigger fish to fry. They are one point above the dotted line in the Premier League...

Tudor does have Micky van de Ven and Cristian Romero available for this game though which should give Spurs a boost and potentially some hope, but Atletico Madrid have been, for the most part, a formidable home team for the last few seasons. It's no surprise to see them 8/15 to win the first leg.

I fully expect this game to be scrappy with plenty of fouls, so let's hope KOLO MUANI gets a fourth start in a row under Tudor. He's been a fouling monster since the managerial change, committing 12 fouls in just 166 minutes of action - thats a per 90 average of 6.39...

We can back him at 11/10 TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS at the Wanda and that looks must-bet material. He made two before going off after 42 minutes against Crystal Palace following Spurs being reduced to 10-men, so even if he is a sub, this bet has a great chance as long as he gets some minutes.

Fingers crossed Tudor doesn't change the team too much from last Thursday in forward areas, as we also have to go back in MATHYS TEL TO WIN 2+ FOULS at 11/8. It landed against Palace and has done so in five of the last six games Tel has played more than 30 minutes.

We should see Spurs play a mixture of an aggressive press and fast transitions, which will have Tel in his element against Atletico midfielders and defenders who aren't shy about fouling.

Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 3-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Odds correct at 12:00 GMT (09/03/26)

Newcastle vs Barcelona

This should be a fun game. Neither Newcastle or Barcelona are convincing defensively, but both pack a real punch in attack. The pair have already played once this season with Barca winning 2-1 at St. James' thanks to a Marcus Rashford brace, and goals should again be on the cards.

This time though I think NEWCASTLE SCORE 2+ GOALS, and we'll back that at 21/20. Eddie Howe's side have scored multiple times in 20 of their 26 home games this season across all competitions, including four of five Champions League games.

Anthony Gordon celebrates scoring four against Qarabag

They simply have to go for it and win this this first leg to stand any chance of qualifying, with it exceptionally hard to overturn a deficit at Camp Nou. In fact, only one of 18 visitors have avoided defeat when travelling to Barcelona, and that was PSG.

So it's imperitive that the Magpies go extremely gung-ho, and Barca's defensive weaknesses, especially when travelling, present an opportunity. Across their last 18 away matches, Hansi Flick's side have conceded 33 goals at an average of 1.83 per game.

Their opponents have scored two or more in 11 of those 18, and that includes La Liga strugglers Girona and Sevilla, as well their last three away in the Champions League against Club Brugge (3), Chelsea (3) and Slavia Prague (2).

Flick's high-line is easily exploited, especially given the absences of their first choice left and right backs.

Score prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Barcelona (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Odds correct at 12:00 GMT (09/03/26)

Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal

Arsenal win to nil was the first port of call here but at 13/8 we'll venture elsewhere. Leverkusen are a tired and injured team, so while they may have upset Manchester City in the league phase, I find it hard to see anything other than a convincing Arsenal win over two legs.

The Germans will be fighting and scrapping hard in this first leg though, and that could lead to cards. EDMOND TAPSOBA looks the best bet TO BE CARDED at 4/1 given he plays at the left side of Bayer's back five.

That position means he'll come into regular contact with Bukayo Saka, who has been fouled 22 times across his last nine starts at an average of 2.86 per 90. Tapsoba has been carded eight times in all competitions this season, but has picked up three yellows in just 630 Champions League minutes for a per 90 average of 0.43 cards per 90 on the continent.

The referee here is Halil Umut Meler, and he's averaged 3.80 cards per game in his Champions League career, so rates a decent appointment.

Score prediction: Leverkusen 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Odds correct at 16:30 GMT (09/03/26)

Bodo/Glimt vs Sporting

The Bodo/Glimt fairytale continues. After picking themselves up from off the canvas after five rounds of the league phase, they've since knocked out every opponent they've faced - and it's a decent list.

Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Inter have all been KO'd by the Norwegian minnows. Next up, Portuguese champions Sporting Lisbon.

I'll breifly go over the old spiel: Bodo play in the arctic circle - it's a bit cold up there - the operate on a plastic pitch and their league season hasn't started. That means they have an increased home-field advantage due to the climate and turf, and they also have a rest advantage over their opponents.

Bodo/Glimt's stadium Aspmyra Stadion in Norway

Bodo did play in the cup last Wednesday, but haven't played since, while Sporting had a gruelling game against Braga on Saturday, one in which they conceded a late equaliser. Not ideal preparation for the trip to the arctic.

While the journey will come to an end at some point, now is not the time to disembark the Bodo train, especially given Sporting's issues away to good sides. They've failed to win at Benfica, Porto and Braga - three of the top four in Portugal - as well as Juventus, Napoli and Bayern Munich in this competition.

It simply has to be BODO/GLIMT DRAW NO BET at 10/11 on Wednesday, with stakes returned if the game ends in a draw. We'll also have a nibble BODO/GLIMT TO WIN AND BTTS at 10/3.

Both teams have scored in all bar one of Bodo's UCL games this season, while BTTS has copped in 15 of Sporting's 18 away games in all competitions.

Score prediction: Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Sporting Lisbon (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Odds correct at 16:30 GMT (09/03/26)

PSG vs Chelsea

In a repeat of the Club World Cup final, a game Chelsea ran out 3-0 winners against reigning Champions League champions PSG, goals should be on the agenda. PSG's UCL matches this season have been bonkers for goals, while the Blues under Liam Rosenior have followed the same pattern.

Luis Enrique's side's Champions League games this term have averaged a whopping 4.1 goals, with their attacking firepower continuing to do the heavy lifting, though defensively they are far easier exposed than last season.

Chelsea have the same recipe, dynamic in attack but vulnerable at the back, their games averaging 3.67 goals per game under Rosenior, so we'll back OVER 3.5 GOALS at 6/4 as our main bet.

This bet has landed in 10 of Rosenior's 15 games in charge of Chelsea, five of PSG's 10 Champions League games, and interestingly, two of the three meetings that Rosenior's Strasbourg had with Les Parisiens since the start of last season which suggests the new Chelsea manager has no issues in going toe-to-toe with the French giants.

We'll also back in-form Chelsea striker JOAO PEDRO TO SCORE ANYTIME at 12/5. He has scored in eight of his 12 appearances since Rosenior came in, firing 11 goals in that time.

Over the course of the season the Brazilian has averaged 0.50 xG per 90, a really healthy figure, and in a game where goals should flow for both sides, he looks a big price to again find the net.

Score prediction: PSG 2-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)

Odds correct at 16:30 GMT (09/03/26)

Real Madrid vs Manchester City

We get this game at least twice a season it seems, and 25/26 we're getting three meetings between Real Madrid and Manchester City. City won the first meeting at the Bernabeu 2-1 back in December, though a lot of things have changed at Real since, the main one being a new man in the dugout.

Xabi Alonso was sacked and replaced in the interim by his former Liverpool and Real teammate Alvaro Arbeloa and results have been mixed, while performances have mainly been average at best. There is a reason why City are near even money to win in Spain.

The route we'll go down though is cards, with referee Murizio Mariani one of the better appointments for card backers this midweek. The Italian has averaged 4.60 cards per game in the Champions League this season, and we'll chance BERNARDO SILVA TO BE CARDED on Wednesday.

He looks huge value at 10/3 here given he's City's most booked player this season and is averaging 0.40 cards per 90. Throw in the fact he's been booked in three of his last four trips to the Bernabeu and he is must-bet material against a side with a number of excellent foul drawers.

One of those is Vinicius Jr, and it seems highly likely that MATHEUS NUNES will be dealing with the Brazilian, making his 4/1 price TO BE CARDED worth backing. Vini has drawn 2.35 fouls per 90 this season and will shoulder the burden of all of Real's attacking threat in the absence of Kylian Mbappe, meaning he'll be fed the ball regularly.

Nunes is City's joint-second-most carded player this season, collecting eight yellows, and will be in for a tough night against such a dynamic and direct dribbler.

Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Odds correct at 16:30 GMT (09/03/26)

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