Liverpool’s unbeaten run finally came to an end this weekend as Bournemouth snatched a deserved last minute winner to claim a 3-2 win.
Heading into the game against the Cherries, the Reds were 13 unbeaten across all competitions and in possession of fourth spot in the Premier League. Arne Slot had managed to turn things around, at least results wise, following a run of nine losses in 12 at one stage.
The Premier League champions started brightly and then sort of collapsed midway through the first-half, conceding two goals in seven minutes.
The hosts didn’t even have to do anything remarkable or extraordinary to breach Liverpool’s backline either.
Evanilson fired in the opener after Virgil van Dijk had initially shanked an attempted clearance. He then misjudged the situation and allowed Alex Scott to poke the ball back across the penalty area and into the path of the unmarked Brazilian forward. Joe Gomez couldn’t react quick enough to the bouncing ball and despite his best efforts, Bournemouth had the opener.
In the process of trying to block the effort, Gomez collided with Alisson and was taken off. The Reds, however, didn’t make a substitution. They had possession of the ball but didn’t put it out of play with Wataru Endo waiting on the sidelines to replace the No2. Bournemouth made the most of the extra man with James Hill strolling unopposed into midfield before threading a pass inside of Milos Kerkez and into the path of Alex Jimenez.
And just like that, the visitors found themselves 2-0 down.
The Reds did rally and claw it back to 2-2 before Amine Adil capitalised on a bit of a goal mouth scramble following a long throw-in deep into injury time.
It was Liverpool’s first loss in the Premier League since November when they suffered a 3-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest. That fixture was also the last time Mohamed Salah started a game in the English top-flight for the reigning champions.
Of course, some fans have made the link. Salah returns to the starting XI and Liverpool lose. Is it purely a coincidence or is there something to the idea that the No11 makes Slot’s side defensively weaker?
We’ll start with the Bournemouth game and we’ll address the elephant in the room. All of the goals Liverpool conceded arrived via their left hand side. Salah wasn’t anywhere near the scene of the crime for any of the goals.
The first and second share some similarities. The Cherries look to move Liverpool out of a set defensive shape, capitalising on Slot’s instruction to go man-for-man. Scott runs off of Alexis Mac Allister and into the space between Van Dijk and Kerkez, with the left-back keeping tabs on Jimenez who is hugging the touchline.
Scott becomes the free man and this forces Van Dijk to engage which, in turn, leaves a two-on-one situation centrally for Gomez to cover. It’s an issue that has plagued Liverpool at times this term, with and without Salah in the team.
Just look at the opener Fulham scored a couple of weeks back when Harry Wilson runs off of Ryan Gravenberch. It’s the same sort of dynamic here.
For the second, we see Bournemouth take advantage of Liverpool’s man-for-man approach. Dominik Szoboszlai steps out to follow Scott into a wider area and this creates a passing lane between Van Dijk and Kerkez. Hill, under no pressure, can pick out a pass and the Reds are powerless to stop it.
Neither of those goals had anything to do with Salah. The third was just a long throw that the Reds, once again, failed to deal with.
Again, nothing to do with the four-time Golden Boot winner.
He didn’t impress in attack but nobody did for the visitors. It’s been a problem for Liverpool this term with the Reds currently ranking seventh for expected goals (xG) and eighth for big chances created.
Salah finished the game against the Cherries with the highest xG for Slot’s side, but it was just 0.35. That is bang on his per 90 average in the Premier League this term and really highlights how he’s nowhere near the threat he once was, but rather than that solely being his fault, it seems to be tied to the system.
For context, last season, his xG per 90 was nearly double that (0.68).
The truth is Liverpool haven’t been great with or without their No11. The xG difference (xG for - xG Against) with him in the starting XI in the Premier League is +0.4. Without him in the starting XI, it is +0.68.
However, the game against Burnley is heavily skewing the data there. Remove that from the data set and the xG difference drops to +0.46.
Regardless of who is in the team, the Reds struggle to create high value opportunities and despite having decent underlying defensive numbers, they’re always just one set piece away from conceding.
It all feels very precarious right now and that’s why, defensively, it is feast or famine this term. Liverpool will keep a clean sheet and limit the opposition to a handful of shots, or they’ll concede three.
Pinning this on Salah isn’t getting to the root cause of these issues.
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