Football betting tips: Scottish Premiership
2.5pts Over 2.5 goals at 10/11 (bet365)
A meeting of Edinburgh's two major sides who have both started the new season in positive enough fashion. Hibernian and Hearts have two wins apiece from three on their respective records with the latter securing a spot in a European competition too.
Concerns about Hearts undergoing life post-Derek McInnes came to the fore when Austrian outfit Sturm Graz convincingly beat them over two legs in Champions League qualification, followed by a similar outcome from Benfica in the Europa League - an opening day league defeat to Aberdeen sandwiched in between the two ties as well.
But since the 6-1 thrashing in Portugal they've embarked on a six-game unbeaten run across all competitions which includes a successful return to Austria to beat Rapid Wien over two legs to reach the group stage of the Conference League. A strong first-half performance against St. Johnstone last time out deserved more than the 2-1 victory they eventually secured.
Hibs have also endured mixed fortunes as another side whose campaign began in mid-July. An abysmal defeat to Malisheva from Kosovo kicked things off in the worst possible fashion but they overcame them in the home leg. Since then, six of eight outings have returned at least a draw.
Not only is this an Edinburgh derby but it's also a contest between two sides who have demonstrated strength in attack so far. Across the three league games both Hibs and Hearts sit in the top four in terms of the quality of chances created, with Celtic (obviously) and Dundee United (who have been behind a lot and played a game extra) the only teams with higher expected goals (xG) figures.
What's pleasing about the number from a Hearts perspective is that they've spent the large majority of their three games in the lead. In fact, no side has led more than the 82% of the game time seen by Wouter Vrancken's outfit. That will make the loss at Aberdeen even more frustrating given the nature of it.
They've only trailed for a matter of seconds. Hibs, meanwhile, have only been behind for around 21 minutes in the league so far. Some may therefore point to the draw, which is of course a very realistic possibility, but I'm instead settling for OVER 2.5 GOALS at just shy of even money.
The above is there to add context to the underlying numbers and why they're in fact stronger than other teams, even if some may boast a higher figure. Despite being ahead, both sides still push to create chances and don't simply rest on what they have.
A stats-based angle I was interested in was the over 28.5 shots at around 6/4. This has the feel of quite an open game anyway without even factoring in the derby crowd element to it - Hibs could only muster four shots in their meeting in April so almost 'owe it' to their supporters to improve anyway.
Eight of Hearts' ten competitive games this season have gone over 2.5 with one of those which didn't being the home draw with Benfica, a game which was played with the tie already decided given the outcome in Portugal.
Two players I'd focus on from a shots-perspective though are Hibs' Josh Mulligan and Hearts' Blair Spittal given their previous showings. The former available at 7/4 with Hills for an effort on target. While it wouldn't have mattered here if it was a staked selection, I'll still point out that it's worth checking with your chosen bookmaker as some don't offer the 'super sub' promotion in the Scottish Premiership.
I'm keeping it simple by backing goals instead, in what should hopefully be a highly-entertaining Edinburgh derby.
Odds correct at 13:35 BST (02/09/26)
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