Football betting tips: Championship
Middlesbrough vs Millwall (Friday, 12:30)
2pts Millwall double chance at 6/5 (Sky Bet)
Oxford vs Hull (Friday, 15:00)
2pts Ciaron Brown and Michal Helik both 1+ total shots at 9/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Michal Helik to score anytime at 9/1 (Betway, BetVictor, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Ciaron Brown to score anytime at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
QPR vs Watford (Friday, 15:00)
3pts Over 2.5 goals at 11/10 (Sky Bet, Betfred)
1pt Over 3.5 goals at 14/5 (Paddy Power)
Coventry vs Derby (Friday, 20:00)
2pts Both teams to score at 4/5 (General)
1pt Frank Onyeka to be carded at 15/4 (bet365)
Middlesbrough vs Millwall
- Kick-off: Friday, 12:30 BST
- TV channel: ITV, Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy 'the Punt' Cantrill
MILLWALL’s record against the sides above them in the Championship table reads W0 D2 L3 which perhaps goes a little way to explaining why they are 15/4 to win at the Riverside.
Scratch the surface a little and there’s some juice in that price.
They lost the reverse 3-0 and were beaten 4-0 when they hosted Coventry but those fixtures were their first and fourth league games at the Den this season.
Since then, they were narrowly beaten at the league leaders and drew home and away with Ipswich.
In fact, including the stalemate with the Tractor Boys on Boxing Day, Millwall have only lost three of their last 17 Championship games despite playing eight matches against the top 10 across that sample.
Victory against Boro would see the Lions move into the automatic spots at their hosts' expense.
Instead of taking the visitors to win though, I am going to err on the side of caution and back them WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE at 6/5 with Sky Bet.
Middlesbrough have only lost twice since they were knocked out of the FA Cup third round (W7 D4 L2).
With these sides drawing a quarter of their combined league fixtures this term and given the ramifications of this game on both their automatic promotion hopes, there’s every chance they shake hands on the draw.
Oxford vs Hull
- Kick-off: Friday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
This could be one of the biggest games in the Championship on Good Friday, with second-bottom Oxford welcoming fifth-placed Hull.
The hosts are one point from safety after an upturn in results, while the visitors are just three points above seventh-placed Wrexham ahead of the action, so both need a result for different reasons.
Jimmy was quite keen on Hull's chances of a win here on This Week's Acca, while my feelings on Hull have been well documented on that show and on social media, where a barrage of abuse from Tigers fans could come back to bite them should they miss out on the top six.
Bragging-rights aside, this game is set to be a set-piece mismatch and we have to try and take advantage. Only four sides have scored more set-piece goals than Oxford's 16 this season and only five sides have taken more shots from dead-ball situations than the U's (179).
On the other side of this mismatch is a Hull team who have faced the second-most xG from set-pieces this season (18.0) conceding five set-piece goals in their last nine league outings, with four of those scored by opposing centre-backs.
That means we have to back both MICHAL HELIK and CIARON BROWN TO SCORE ANYTIME at 9/1 and 16/1 respectively. Both have found the net recently, with Helik netting against Preston and Brown bagging against Preston and Stoke - both are huge aerial threats.
The 8/5 available for both HELIK AND BROWN 1+ TOTAL SHOTS is worth covering too. Brown has had a shot in five of his last six league starts and Helik has hit 1+ in four of his last five in that same span, with the pair both having a shot in the same game on three of those five occasions.
QPR vs Watford
- Kick-off: Friday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Jake Osgathorpe
I cannot believe the goal line for this game is set at 2.5, so we simply must take the OVERS at an odds-against price.
QPR's home games have been bananas for goals this season, averaging 3.5 goals per game and seeing overs click in 15 of 19 in the Championship - that's a 79% strike-rate that would give us blanket odds of around 3/10. We are getting 11/10 here.
The R's are playing with real freedom at the moment given they can't go up or down, and that means there is even more reason to expect goals, while visitors Watford have to go for broke if they are to keep their slim play-off chances alive.
The Hornets' recent away games have been goal-heavy, with three of their last four seeing overs click, and that includes matches against very 'unders' sides in Preston and Stoke, both who rank in the bottom six for goals this season.
That's another boost for this bet, which simply looks to be priced completely wrong, so much so I'lll even recommend backing OVER 3.5 GOALS at 14/5 as well.
Nine of QPR's 19 home games have breached the 3.5 line this season (47%) including three of their last four, while two of Watford's recent four away games have seen four goals.
Coventry vs Derby
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Jimmy 'The Punt' Cantrill
Just the eight goals when these sides last met, five big chances, 14 shots on target and a combined expected goals (xG) of 4.67 as Coventry won 5-3.
If you fancy more of the same on Good Friday evening, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score can be backed at 6/5.
I’m going to play it safe with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at 4/5, it feels like a no-brainer.
Against sides above them, Derby have played 12 games with this bet clicking on 10 occasions.
Coventry have scored the most goals in the division (81), 14 more than any other side, and their games have averaged 3.1 goals with both teams finding the net in 59% of their 39 matches.
In such a big game, I think FRANK ONYEKA is worth a tout TO BE CARDED.
He’s picked up three in 547 minutes of Championship action since joining Coventry loan from Brentford.
At Augsburg he was carded eight times in 31 Bundesliga appearances and he was carded 12 times across the 67 Premier League appearances prior.
With a cards per 90 average of 0.33, this price is simply too big.
Odds correct at 12:40 BST (01/04/26)
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