Germany host Italy on Tuesday night, hoping to wrest control of their Nations League group from Roberto Mancini's men. Michael Beardmore provides the preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: Nations League
1pt Draw at 29/10 (Unibet)
1pt Leon Goretzka to have 1+ shots on target from outside the box at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
For all of the doom and gloom surrounding Italy – much of it understandable after their shock failure to qualify for this year’s World Cup – they sit atop League A Group 3 at the halfway stage.
Unbeaten too, although that’s a status Tuesday’s hosts Germany, two points further back in third, behind Hungary, can also boast, albeit via a trio of 1-1 draws.
The winner of this encounter, if there is one, will assume the role of favourites to progress from the group to the finals, and the bookmakers are absolutely all over the Germans.
Hansi Flick’s side are odds-on everywhere, while Roberto Mancini’s Euro 2020 champions can be found as long as 4/1 in places.
Personally, I think many have gotten a little carried away with Germany’s supposed renaissance since their last-16 exit to England last summer.
Yes, they have improved and boast significantly superior individual talents to an Italy side undergoing its own rebuild, but their 12-game unbeaten run is slightly misleading.
The eight straight wins they racked up came against Liechtenstein (twice), Armenia (twice), Iceland, North Macedonia, Romania and Israel.
You can only beat what’s in front of you but their four subsequent draws against the Netherlands, Italy, England and Hungary are a more realistic representation of where this team is. Decent but hardly world-beaters.
Those four past results, added to the fact that nine of Italy’s past 17 matches have finished level at 90 minutes, suggests the DRAW is overpriced here at 29/10.
There’s also a stats-based angle to explore in this game – namely that across World Cup qualifying and the three Nations League games, no German player has attempted more shots from outside the box than Leon Goretzka.
Yet, Sky Bet’s market on that eventuality prices six other Germans lower odds than the 3/1 on GORETZKA TO HAVE 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX.
Across his career, the Bayern Munich midfielder has attempted 216 shots from outside the area in 283 games.
Granted, not all have been on target but plenty have and 3/1 looks a unit or two too large on a player who loves to have a pop.
Germany v Italy score prediction and best bets
- 1pt Draw at 29/10 (Unibet)
- 1pt Leon Goretzka to have 1+ shots on target from outside the box at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Germany 0-0 Italy (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct 1545 BST (13/06/22)
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