Fulham host West Brom in a huge game at the top of the Sky Bet Championship on Saturday lunchtime. Michael Beardmore has a preview and two best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
1.5pt Aleksandar Mitrovic to be first Fulham scorer at 7/4 (bet365)
1pt Each team 2+ corners in each half at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Remember when yo-yos came back into a fashion a few years ago? The fad stuck in parts of West London and the West Midlands – this game has every chance of being a Premier League clash in 2022-23… and a Championship one in 2023-24.
Jokes aside, current leaders Bournemouth will have plenty to say about both sides’ automatic promotion aspirations but according to Expected Points (xPoints) these are the Championship’s top two teams – the Cottagers sitting top of Infogol's expected table, the Baggies second.
Of the two, Fulham are arguably in better nick – four wins from their past five, all by two goals or more, albeit the sole reverse in that run, a 4-1 defeat at Coventry, a reminder they are far from impenetrable.
West Brom, meanwhile, have shown vulnerability on the road, losing their past two away games at Stoke and Swansea – teams, with all due respect, that boast nowhere near the threat of the Cottagers.
Kick-off time: 12:30, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Fulham 21/20 | Draw 5/2 | West Brom 5/2
Saturday lunchtime’s kick-off also sees two of the second tier’s most in-form strikers come head-to-head – the Championship’s 15-goal leading scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic, with nine goals in his last six, and Albion’s Karlan Grant, with six in six.
While Grant will have his supporters and rightly so, I simply had to find a way to back Mitrovic here – it was just a matter of finding the best value and while I wouldn’t put larger stakers off 11/10 on him to score anytime, a better route has emerged.
You can get 7/4 on MITROVIC TO BE FULHAM’S FIRST SCORER – odds which look huge when you take the numbers into account.
The Serbian has scored Fulham’s first goal in seven of their 14 Championship games (50%) this season (six ‘proper’ firsts plus one after an own goal, which counts too) and, with 15 out of 33, he’s netted 45% of Fulham’s goals this term – meaning he should be priced shorter in this market and has to be backed accordingly.
Elsewhere, both teams to score is understandably skinny at 8/11 top price and while it looks a virtual banker, I’m not totally convinced – Baggies boss Valerien Ismael seems far too streetwise to engage Fulham in a shootout and that puts me off the outright markets too.
BTTS will probably come in but I think there’s better value to be found with a corner bet given the respective playing styles both favour – Fulham regularly earning flag-kicks with their possession-based probing, yet Albion also doing so with their more direct game on the break.
Sky Bet offer 3/1 on EACH TEAM 2+ CORNERS IN EACH HALF and that is backed up by the numbers big time.
At home this season, Fulham are averaging a league-high 3.86 corners in the first half plus 2.71 in the second, while on their travels Albion average 2.43 corners before the break and a division-leading 3.71 in the second half.
It's a game that could be tight, yet stretched in spells, and it makes sense to back both teams to register at least a couple of corners per half as a result given the attacking riches each has at their disposal.
Fulham v West Brom best bets and score prediction
- Aleksandar Mitrovic to be first Fulham scorer at 7/4 (bet365)
- 2+ corners in each half each team at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 West Brom (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct 1630 BST (27/10/21)
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