Football tips: Premier League weekend best bets
With his column more than nine points in profit, Jake Pearson returns to assess the weekend's action, determining which sides are worth backing sooner rather than later.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Leicester or Draw Double Chance v Chelsea at 23/20 (Mansion Bet)
1pt Arsenal or Draw Double Chance v Liverpool at 37/20 (Mansion Bet)
Leicester v Chelsea
There is no getting away from the fact that Leicester have made a poor start to the season, currently residing in 12th position in the league and already seven points adrift of the top four.
It is becoming increasingly unlikely that Leicester will finish in a Champions League spot this season, which will be incredibly frustrating for Brendan Rodgers, particularly given the struggles of Manchester United.
For Chelsea though, they have looked unstoppable at times this season, currently leading the way in the Premier League, having lost just once.
Despite enjoying such a good start to the season however, there is an argument to be made that the Blues have yet to reach the levels they did last term following Thomas Tuchel’s appointment, with their Expected Goals process actually only the third best in the league.
A 1-1 draw against Burnley last time out proved frustrating for Tuchel, with the Chelsea boss labelling the Clarets “lucky” to come away from the match with a point, but it was a result that had probably been coming, Chelsea’s actual goals scored this season almost six higher than the amount of goals they have been expected to score.
Taking on Chelsea this season, from a betting perspective that is, may not have proved profitable, but in terms of beating the price, there isn’t really a better team to oppose.
Chelsea’s opponents have shortened on all but one occasion this season, and by taking the opening price and the probability of winning implied by the closing price with the margin removed, we can see that backing against Chelsea would have seen you find an average of over 5% Expected Value per bet, effectively meaning that you would return an average of 5p for every £10 bet on the Blues’ opponents.
What is expected value (EV)?
- Expected value, or EV, is the amount a player can expect to win or lose per bet if the same game was played over and over again with the same odds.
- Positive EV (+) represents a long-term result, while negative EV (-) represents a loss.
When away from home Chelsea have drifted on every occasion, and by looking at their matches specifically against Arsenal and Tottenham, two teams on a similar level to Leicester, we get a good idea of exactly how the market is shifting when Tuchel’s men take on a team of the Foxes’ stature.
Initially 8/11 to beat Spurs, Chelsea drifted out to odds-against prior to kick-off, and away to Arsenal the Blues shifted from 4/5 out to 10/11.
Chelsea are currently available to back at as short as 8/11 to beat Leicester, and as we have seen on multiple occasions already this season, that is a price that is likely to get bigger.
If the price on Chelsea does get bigger then the price on LEICESTER OR DRAW will get shorter, and that is what we’re counting on this week.
Liverpool v Arsenal
Liverpool’s title challenge hit a stumbling block as they lost 3-2 away to West Ham prior to the international break, but they remain only three points behind leaders Chelsea.
The Reds have been impressive this season, looking much more like the team that claimed the club’s maiden Premier League title in 2019/20, but they are far from infallible, as David Moyes’ men demonstrated two weeks back.
It is incredible to think that Arsenal were propping up the Premier League table three games into the season, particularly when considering how strong they have been of late, now unbeaten in their last ten matches in all competitions, winning their last four on the bounce.
Mikel Arteta does look to be turning things around at the Emirates, and this could end up being a much trickier assignment for Jurgen Klopp’s side than the layers appear to think. Liverpool are 2/5 to win this match, which looks on the short side.
Siding against only Chelsea at home would have seen you identify more value versus the closing line prices than siding against Liverpool at Anfield, while no side has shortened more when on the road than Arsenal this season.
The Gunners have seen their price cut in all but one of their away matches this season, and at the current prices, it is not difficult to see just that happening once again.
As mentioned, Arsenal haven’t lost in their last ten matches, which makes a price of 2/1 about ARSENAL OR DRAW stand out, and a price that may not be around for a long time.
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