After two winners from two bets last weekend, Jake Pearson returns to take an early look at the weekend's Premier League action, determining which sides are worth backing sooner rather than later, in order to beat the market.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt DRAW in Liverpool v Chelsea at 5/2 (Unibet)
1pt DRAW in Burnley v Leeds at 13/5 (Betfred)
The third instalment of this column and, thanks to Leeds’ draw with Everton at the weekend, we are already in profit.
However, more encouraging than the simple P/L is the fact that all four selections put up so far – a huge drift in the West Ham v Leicester match permitting – have shortened; exactly what the piece sets out to achieve.
Liverpool v Chelsea
Undoubtedly the standout fixture of the weekend, Liverpool v Chelsea is an early showdown between the two sides most likely to challenge Manchester City for the title.
Both teams have started the season with two wins from two, but someone’s perfect record must go as the two face off at Anfield.
Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Liverpool 29/20 | Draw 23/10 | Chelsea 15/8
Often these big games are hyped up to within an inch of their lives, only to be played out in a cautious manner; both sides ultimately content to share the spoils, a theme that could continue on Saturday evening.
Last season, of the 12 matches involving two sides to eventually finish in the top four, 42% ended in a draw.
More importantly though, had you backed a tie when the matches were initially priced up, you would have identified an average of over 1.6% expected value, whilst also making over 7 points profit to a 1 point level stake.
What is expected value (EV)?
- Expected value, or EV, is the amount a player can expect to win or lose per bet if the same game was played over and over again with the same odds.
- Positive EV (+) represents a long-term result, while negative EV (-) represents a loss.
As the old cliché goes, titles cannot be won at this stage of the season, but they can be lost, and neither Jurgen Klopp nor Thomas Tuchel will be particularly keen on the idea of a defeat, which makes a price of 5/2 about the DRAW an appealing one, and one that may not be available come Saturday tea-time.
Burnley v Leeds
Burnley have started the campaign poorly, losing to Brighton and Liverpool, but Sean Dyche’s men seldom make a fast start to the season, and it would be folly to rule them out of anything just yet.
Leeds’ draw with Everton prevented them from sitting in the same situation as Burnley after two matches, and the side from Yorkshire will ideally like to rack up a few more than the five draws they managed last season.
Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Burnely 21/10 | Draw 12/5 | Leeds 5/4
As mentioned in previous editions of this column, backing the draw between two sides not from the traditional ‘big six’ (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham) would have seen you consistently identify value over the past three seasons.
Leeds‘ draw with Everton at the weekend was a nice winner for the column, but the fact that the 11/4 shot eventually went off around 5/2 (+6.5% EV) is an encouraging sign in terms of the trend continuing into this season.
It is surprising to see the DRAW at as big as 13/5, but it would be even more surprising were that price still available come Sunday afternoon.
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