After tipping up two winners at the weekend, Jake Pearson returns to take an early look at the midweek Premier League action, determining which sides are worth backing sooner rather than later to beat the market.
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Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Norwich or Draw v Newcastle at 10/11 (Mansion Bet)
1pt Everton or Draw v Liverpool at 9/4 (Mansion Bet)
Newcastle v Norwich
A positive Covid test forced Eddie Howe to miss out on his first game as Newcastle manager, an entertaining 3-3 draw against Brentford, and though he was back in the building for his side’s trip to the Emirates on Saturday, it felt like perhaps some of his players were not, the Gunners strolling to a very comfortable 2-0 win.
Norwich, meanwhile, have felt the full thrust of ‘new manager bounce’, Dean Smith unbeaten in his first two matches as the Canaries’ new boss.
A 2-1 victory over Southampton was Norwich’s second successive win, following their win by the same scoreline over Brentford in Daniel Farke’s last game in charge, but perhaps the most impressive of their three recent results was the 0-0 draw with Wolves at the weekend.
Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Tuesday
TV Channel: Amazon Prime Video
Newcastle 19/20 | Draw 5/2 | Norwich 14/5
Wanderers are a very accomplished-looking side this season, currently sitting in sixth place in the Premier League, but Norwich were the better team against Bruno Lage’s men, and were arguably unfortunate not to have come away with more than a point, creating the better opportunities (xG: NOR 1.43 - 0.36 WOL).
If there is a form team coming into this match, then it is certainly Norwich, but the prices seem to tell a different story.
Newcastle, who remain the only side in the top four divisions of English football yet to win a match this season, are even money to beat a team now three points ahead of them in the league.
This is the shortest price Newcastle have been to win all season, understandably so given Norwich are, by league standings at least, the worst team they can play, but the difference between their price to win this match and their prices to win other Premier League matches looks incorrect.
Their previous biggest price was 6/4 at home to Brentford, meaning they have an implied 10% bigger chance of beating Norwich than they have of winning any of their other matches this season; too big.
Factor in as well the way the markets have been acting in relation to these two sides – Newcastle drifting in half of their home matches this term, while Norwich have shortened in all but one away match – and siding with NORWICH OR DRAW at a price of 10/11 could prove fruitful.
Everton v Liverpool
You probably couldn’t find two teams in more contrasting form at present than the two Merseyside clubs.
Everton have picked up just one point across their last six matches, while Liverpool have won each of their last three, scoring ten goals and conceding none.
In fact, the Reds became the first team since Sunderland in 1927 to score at least twice in 17 successive matches thanks to their 4-0 victory over Southampton at the weekend.
Everton, by contrast, have now gone three games without a goal and seven without a win, their longest run since 2016.
Things are starting to look bleak at Goodison Park, so perhaps this isn’t the best time for them to invite their neighbours round; then again, maybe it is.
Kick-off time: 20:15 GMT, Wednesday
TV channel: Amazon Prime Video
Everton 7/1 | Draw 4/1 | Liverpool 4/11
Without putting too much stock in the cliché that ‘form goes out of the window’ when it comes to local derbies, there is certainly an element of truth to it; Everton fans will certainly be hoping so.
And for all that Liverpool’s dominance has been apparent in the modern era, the Toffees have actually fared well in recent meetings between these two, Liverpool winning just two of the last eight Premier League face-offs, while it is just one win in their last seven league visits to Goodison for the Reds.
The main reason for siding against Jurgen Klopp’s side though, as ever in this column, is the price.
Everton are currently available at a top price of 15/2 to win this match; for context, Watford were the same price to beat Liverpool, while Norwich were actually shorter at a general 6/1.
Also, this is more than double the biggest price Everton have been to win at Goodison this season, their previous biggest coming when 5/2 to beat Tottenham two weeks back.
Last season Everton were a general 3/1 to beat their rivals at home, while even in Liverpool’s title-winning season of 2019/20 the Toffees were only as big as 5/1 – Liverpool winning neither meeting.
Given the draw also looks a little undervalued – a general 4/1 where it has been between 3/1 and 100/30 over the past two seasons – it is worth including in the bet.
At 9/4, backing EVERTON OR DRAW in the double chance market appeals as the best bet in this fixture.
Odds correct at 1200 GMT (29/11/21)
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