England have lift-off, Thomas Tuchel has a selection headache, and, thanks to a rapid-fire response of media platitudes we know that five-star England are back on track.
Before the 5-0 win at Serbia there was a surprisingly rational reaction to the sluggish 2-0 victory against Andorra at Villa Park, one that recognised breaking down a low block is not what will define the Tuchel era.
To judge England’s readiness for next summer by performances against mid-tier European opposition in qualifiers is the equivalent to drawing conclusions about Manchester City’s preparedness for the Champions League semi-finals by analysing how a half-strength team fares at Huddersfield Town in the EFL Cup third round later this month.
That understanding is slowly seeping into the discourse, but only when England lose. Logically, we should treat a 5-0 win against Serbia in precisely the same way; as more or less an irrelevance, the equivalent of hammering Championship opposition in the EFL Cup second round and rubbing your hands together.
Fabio Capello’s team beat Croatia 4-1 and 5-1 in World Cup 2010 qualifying, but were thrashed in the second round by Germany. Roy Hodgson won all ten qualifiers before Euro 2016, including twice beating Switzerland 2-0, and then Iceland happened. That’s not to say Tuchel is doomed to failure, just that we truly cannot take anything, good or bad, from the wins this week.
For Thomas Tuchel there is supposedly value in building momentum, in shifting the psychology of the team to get buy-in from the players. There is something in that, maybe, but even this ultimately counts for very little; the mood in the World Cup camp will be driven by more recent events, by injuries, by team spirit fostered on the fly, and by early results in the group.
You might claim Tuchel has learnt something about how to find fluency in midfield, might have picked up that Morgan Rogers is worth investing in, might have decided categorically that Ezri Konsa and Marc Guehi is his centre-back pair.
But the absence of Jude Bellingham, Cole Palmer, and John Stones makes that redundant, as does the fact that the form of every player will fluctuate wildly over the next nine months – as does the fact that, again, Serbia are not the kind of opponent England are training for.
Look beyond the games, mind, and there is a morsel of something that warrants attention.
“I told you - the long throw-in is back,” Tuchel said after the Andorra game.
“But we do not have a lot of time. Once we arrive at the World Cup, all these things matter, so we will also talk about long throw-ins, we will talk about long kicks from the goalkeeper and not only playing short.
“I need to reflect now with my assistant coaches. All these patterns are back and crosses are back as well.”
Tuchel has joined an emerging debate in tactical circles about the long-overdue move away from idealists towards a more pragmatic and varied interpretation of the sport. His engagement with this, and his willingness to ramp up set-pieces and long balls, is welcome.
Here is something England could lean into during knockout games against the world’s best. Forget the fluency that Rogers sparked in Serbia, what this team will need is street smarts; is some of the thorny and bruising counter-punching energy that Tuchel channelled as Chelsea clawed their way to Champions League triumph in 2021.
Chelsea held 32.7% possession in the 2-0 victory over Real Madrid in the semi-final second leg, and 39.6% in the final against Manchester City. They played that way because Tuchel, parachuted into the job mid-season, saw it as the quickest way to get the team together. He was pragmatic, sensible, willing to win ugly.
England’s chances at the World Cup depend on Tuchel again doing what’s necessary, using every weapon at his disposal.
We saw none of it against Andorra and Serbia, because none of it was needed. For now all Tuchel can do is talk about the matches that matter. All we can do is sit and wait.
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