The FA Cup fourth round weekend concludes as Derby host West Ham. Tom Carnduff is backing a goalscorer at a big price.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1pt Jason Knight to score anytime at 11/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
A genuine chance for a Cupset™️ on Monday night as the in-form Derby host struggling West Ham with the TV cameras broadcasting to the nation.
The Rams are unbeaten in their last 14 games across all competitions - and if you want to focus on 90 minutes only - the run stretches to 19.
Paul Warne has got this side playing and, crucially, getting results on a consistent basis. While their main focus will be on a return to the Sky Bet Championship, this is a great opportunity to get the better of Premier League opposition.
With this game featuring in our fourth round upsets piece - WHICH YOU CAN READ HERE - I won't be focusing too much on the result when it comes to this preview.
Basically, I fancy Derby to get something given their terrific run of form. The Hammers may see this as a chance to try and get a win under their belts, but there is also the element of not wanting more games when you're in a relegation battle.
The hosts are a decent price to win in 90 minutes, but there's an even bigger price available that's caught my eye, and that's taking JASON KNIGHT TO SCORE ANYTIME at 11/1.
His recent performances - playing in a more advanced role - have been a factor in his team's overall good run of results.
"He's an absolute joy to watch," boss Paul Warne told BBC Radio Derby after their recent victory over Port Vale. "Knighty, for me, is my favoured 10 because he gives you so much in and out of possession."
While he hasn't been scoring at a rate we like - he only has two on his tally this season - we have to factor in that he did have a run of appearing from the bench throughout December.
Knight was also playing at full-back under Liam Rosenior at the beginning of the campaign, but a run of games in attacking midfield have seen chances to score increase - he's had at least a shot in each of his last three.
Under Warne, Knight has averaged 1.25 shots per game but only eight of the 12 have been starts - and a focus on those games only moves the average up to 1.63.
While not prolific in terms of direct goal returns - although he has two assists across his last seven games - his position on the pitch does allow him the chance to get shots away.
We'd expect to see the 11/1 price if he was still featuring at right-back. This isn't the case, and the value is there in taking an advanced player to strike in a game where the home side are fancied.
Derby v West Ham best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Jason Knight to score anytime at 11/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Derby 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 1150 GMT (26/02/23)
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