1pt Under 2.5 goals at 7/4 (Hills)
0.5pt Newcastle win at 13/5 (Unibet)
0.5pt Draw at 16/5 (Hills)
0.5pt e.w. Sven Botman to score first at 45/1 (Betfair/Paddy Power 1/3 1-5)
Good grief is it difficult to trust Chelsea this season.
A scattergun squad built by Todd Boehly’s billions has only managed to win three successive Premier League matches twice during almost two full season of his highly questionable ownership.
Even this season’s sequence, the first three-match winning streak since the halcyon early days of Graham Potter back in October 2022, came about during a favourable run of fixtures - Palace (H), Luton (A) and Fulham (H) - either side of the new year; none of the victories were by more than a single goal.
Taking them to win at odds-on quotes would be madness, especially against a strong opponent whose newfound pragmatism should come into its own at Stamford Bridge.
Even prior to their impressive 3-0 home win over Wolves last time out Newcastle had begun to rediscover their mojo, with the Magpies' only defeats in 2024 have come against Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal.
A surprising about-face given their previously imperious home, and woeful away form, has seen Eddie Howe’s side become more effective on the road.
When discounting the Premier League’s top three, it's four wins and a draw (which still ended with FA Cup progression via penalties) from their five away games this calendar year, scoring 12 goals and conceding four goals in the process.
The price just isn't there to take the visitors on the double chance, but splitting our stakes across a NEWCASTLE WIN and the DRAW is advised.
Newcastle's win over Wolves, when all three of their goals were scored on the break, was built upon a marked change in strategy.
Howe encouraged his team to cede possession in favour of counterattack, replicating the tactics deployed in wins at Fulham and Villa since the turn of the year.
This, combined with the fact that no top-flight team has had a greater ratio of home games (50%) go UNDER 2.5 GOALS than Chelsea this season, makes the 7/4 about that selection a nice bit of value.
Newcastle's defenders have really come to the party lately, providing a remarkable six goals and six assists between them across their last eight fixtures.
SVEN BOTMAN has found the net twice already this season and assisted in last month's win at Nottingham Forest.
His mighty price of 45/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power TO SCORE FIRST is worth taking each way given the threat he and his defensive colleagues have been displaying during the Magpies' recent resurgence.
CLICK HERE to back with Sky Bet
BRUNO GUIMARAES has 14 yellow cards this season and tends to save it up for games against 'big clubs'. He was booked in the reverse fixture, in all three meetings with Manchester City this term as well as against Liverpool, Arsenal, Villa, Dortmund and PSG.
Chelsea captain Ben Chilwell and fellow defender Levi Colwill are out, while stand-in skipper Conor Gallagher is also doubtful.
Reece James, Lesley Ugochukwu, Romeo Lavia, Christopher Nkunku, Benoit Badiashile, Wesley Fofana and Carney Chukwuemeka remain sidelined.
Newcastle are without the injured Kieran Trippier so Tino Livramento is likely to start at full-back, while winger Miguel Almiron should come in for Jacob Murphy.
Loanee Lewis Hall is ineligible against his parent club, meaning he joins Nick Pope, Sandro Tonali, Callum Wilson, Matt Targett and Joelinton on the sideline.
Chelsea: Petrovic; Gusto, Disasi, Silva, Cucurella; Caicedo, Fernandez; Mudryk, Gallagher, Palmer; Jackson.
Newcastle: Dubravka; Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn; Longstaff, Guimaraes, Willock; Almiron, Isak, Gordon.
Odds correct 1445 GMT (08/03/24)
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