League leaders Arsenal face another tough test this weekend, as they travel to Chelsea. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting best bets.
- Follow Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ) on Twitter
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 39/40 (vBet)
Chelsea suffered their first defeat of the Graham Potter era last weekend, and at his former stomping ground.
The result was bad (4-1), but the performance was even more concerning, and it continued a worrying trend.
That trend being that Chelsea aren't very good right now.
Potter has overseen six league games this season, the same as predecessor Thomas Tuchel, and his side have posted an process of 1.19 non-pen xGF and 1.55 non-pen xGA per game.
That means that on a game-to-game basis the Blues have been on average -0.36 non-pen xG worst than their opponents.
Across Tuchel's six games at the start of the season, the same figure was -0.09, so they were still second best on average, but not by such a big margin.
Either way, the level of process we've seen from Chelsea this term as a whole has not been top-four worthy.
The attacking figure under Potter is my biggest concern, and it is one of the reasons I'm happy to back UNDER 2.5 GOALS in this game.
Chelsea simply aren't creating enough good chances at the moment, and they welcome the league's best travelling defensive team this weekend.
League leaders Arsenal have allowed just 1.07 xGA per game when away from home this season, so have proven to be a tough team to break down.
However, their attacking process when on the road is also low at 1.42 xGF per game, especially when compared to at home (2.65).
The Gunners are more controlled in their approach away from the Emirates, and that makes a lot of sense in the slog that is the Premier League season, as it means they will avoid defeat more often than not.
But that less expansive approach should contribute to a low-scoring game here against a Chelsea team who will be working on tightening things up after being blown out by Brighton last weekend.
I'm not expecting too many fireworks at Stamford Bridge then, which would likely appease both managers, and the near even money price for the Unders looks a solid play.
Chelsea v Arsenal best bets and preview
- 2pts Under 2.5 Goals at 39/40 (vBet)
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1200 BST (04/11/22)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deal
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.