Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Pedri to commit 1+ fouls at 11/8 (bet365)
0.5pt Pedri to commit 2+ fouls at 8/1 (bet365)
2pts Nick Woltemade 1+ headed shots at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Woltemade 2+ headed shots at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
Champions League football on a Thursday night doesn’t feel right but Newcastle against Barcelona certainly does and it’s the highlight of this unorthodox slate.
The Toon have kept three clean sheets this campaign, Liverpool are the only ones to breach their backline thus far but with over 2.5 goals priced at 1/2, the market clearly doesn’t fancy a cagey encounter here and nor do I.
Opponents Barcelona put six past Valencia at the weekend and did so without Lamine Yamal, who is a doubt for this trip to St James’ Park. Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha helped themselves to braces from the bench on Sunday and are expected to feature from the off alongside Marcus Rashford in attack.
The hosts have had some attacking issues. Their summer was marred by a certain Swede’s transfer saga and given his departure, it shouldn't be too much of a shock Eddie Howe’s side have struggled in front of goal. Half of Newcastle’s four games have ended goalless.
Not to worry though, their new signing NICK WOLTEMADE scored what proved to be the matchwinner against Wolves on a dream debut in the Premier League on Saturday.
Interestingly, and somewhat unsurprisingly, Newcastle made eight accurate crosses in that game, scoring from one. That is the most they have made all season and maybe it has something to do with their new 6'6" target man. It’s certainly something to keep an eye on.
Woltemade had three shots against Wolves and two were headers. In the Bundesliga last term, 16 of his 49 efforts were via his head (0.88 headed shots per 90) and across his career, 29% of his efforts have been headers.
At 10/11 with Sky Bet, backing him to have 1+ HEADED SHOTS appeals, as does 2+ HEADED SHOTS at 4/1.
Another angle worth considering is fouls, Newcastle’s midfield is very good at drawing them.
All three of Wolves midfield players were carded and they committed eight fouls between them. Leeds’ midfield trio committed four fouls, as did Liverpool’s. Aston Villa’s midfielders conceded five. All told, nine of the 12 central midfielders to oppose Newcastle this season have committed 1+ FOULS and five of them have been carded.
With that in mind, PEDRI’s price to COMMIT 1+ and 2+ FOULS appeals.
He is not a notorious fouls merchant, Pedri has averaged 0.46 fouls per 90 in his league career and in this competition that average drops slightly to 0.42, but that is probably why we are getting 11/8 and 8/1.
It is worth noting that in the Champions League, he’s hit the low line in 34% of appearances and the high line in 10% but this angle is more about Newcastle’s foul-drawing abilities.
Odds correct at 1230 BST (16/09/25)
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