Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Real Madrid to win at 9/4 (Betfair)
1pt Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at 21/10 (bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.25pts Kylian Mbappe to score 2+ goals at 14/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 17/1
- Real Madrid to win
- Kylian Mbappe to score anytime
- Jude Bellingham to be carded
In the Premier League, Arsenal’s title charge fizzled out weeks ago. Too many draws were to blame (11), only Everton have drawn more games in the top flight.
The Gunners squared off with the Toffees on Saturday and, you guessed it, the spoils were shared.
Although it is frustrating for the neutral and Arsenal fans alike, their failed title challenge could be a blessing in disguise as it will allow Mikel Arteta to solely focus on the Champions League.
It makes for an interesting night of football on Tuesday where the hosts will be bolstered by the return of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli.
Arsenal’s shortcomings lie at the back where Gabriel Magalhaes absence is the headline.
For a team centred around a solid defence, the loss of a stalwart could prove costly here especially considering the calibre of the visitors' attack.
Real Madrid are odds-on favourites to reach the semi’s and their experience could prove to be the difference.
That said, Los Blancos' preparation for this clash was far from ideal.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side lost at home to Valencia on Saturday to fall four points behind Barcelona in the race for the La Liga title.
What are the best bets?
Put simply, REAL MADRID’s price TO WIN looks too big.
In an age of micromanagement and incomprehensible tactical detail, Carlo Ancelotti’s approach of letting his side crack on is refreshing.
That is not to be dismissive but Los Blancos are a reactive team, more than capable of winning by whatever means necessary. And ultimately, they often do just win, especially against the English.
Per Opta, across their last 22 games against English teams, Real Madrid have only lost 6 (W11 D5). And they are also unbeaten in their last eight first legs in the Champions League knockout stages.
Real Madrid’s patchy away form is the caveat (W14 D5 L5) but siding with the ‘kings’ of Europe appeals much more than backing Arsenal at the prices available.
KYLIAN MBAPPE’s price TO SCORE ANYTIME also appeals.
Mbappe’s Champions League goals per 90 average of 0.73 is a good place to start, it translates to a price just shy of 2/5 so the 21/10 available is worth backing blind.
The frontman clearly relishes the big European occasion and comes alive in the knockout stage. Across 34 knockout appearances, Mbappe has netted 24 times which includes six braces.
At 14/1, backing him TO SCORE 2+ GOALS is also worth a punt.
Gabriel Magalhaes’ injury has to be factored in. He is a colossus at the back for the Gunners and has formed an imperious partnership with William Saliba. Without the Brazilian, the visitors' frontline could cause havoc.
Team news
Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Riccardo Calafiori, Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Magalhaes are all unavailable for the hosts.
In more positive news, Saka and Martinelli are back fit and both are expected to flank makeshift centre forward Mikel Merino in attack.
As for Real Madrid, Thibaut Courtois missed the defeat at the weekend with a knee issue and remains a doubt for Tuesday although he is expected to start in goal.
Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao are all ruled out with injuries and Aurelien Tchouameni is suspended. Ferland Mendy and Dani Ceballos are nursing knocks but are expected to feature in some capacity.
Should Mendy miss out, Eduardo Camavinga could start at left back with either Lucas Vazquez or Federico Valverde operating at right back.
39-year-old midfielder, and former Tottenham player, Luka Modric could be called upon in central midfield with Mbappe and Vinicius Junior leading the line.
Predicted line-ups
Arsenal: Raya; Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly; Partey, Rice Odegaard; Saka, Merino, Martinelli
Real Madrid: Courtois; Vazquez, Alaba, Rudiger, Mendy; Rodrygo, Modric, Valverde, Bellingham; Mbappe, Vinicius
Match facts
- This will be just the third meeting between Arsenal and Real Madrid in European competition, following their last 16 tie in the UEFA Champions League in 2005-06. Arsenal won 1-0 in the first leg away from home, before drawing 0-0 at Highbury in the second leg (1-0 on aggregate).
- Since the start of the 2017-18 campaign, Real Madrid have played 22 matches against English sides in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League (W11 D5 L6). This is 10 more than any other team against sides from a specific nation in this period, after Liverpool and Manchester City’s 12 meetings each with Spanish teams.
- Real Madrid have beaten more different opponents than any other side in European Cup/UEFA Champions League history (111) – including seven different English sides – but Arsenal are not one of them (D1 L1). The only other English team to avoid defeat in their first three games against Real Madrid in the European Cup/Champions League are Liverpool (3).
- Real Madrid haven’t lost the first leg in any of their last eight knockout stage ties in the UEFA Champions League (W5 D3); their joint-longest run in the competition in first leg meetings, along with another eight-game run between April 2016 and February 2019.
- Arsenal have led for longer than any other team in UEFA Champions League matches this season (568 minutes overall), while only Internazionale (5 minutes) have trailed for fewer minutes than the Gunners (65) in the competition this term.
- Arsenal rank first in the UEFA Champions League this season for xG against per game (0.88), while only Internazionale (0.2) have conceded fewer goals per game (0.6). Indeed, only in 2005-06 (runners-up) have Arsenal conceded fewer per match in a European Cup/UEFA Champions League campaign (0.31).
- Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé has scored 10 goals in 16 games against English teams in the UEFA Champions League – four of which have come in two matches this season (against Manchester City in the play-off round). The only player to net more knockout stage goals against English sides in a single campaign is Karim Benzema, who scored seven for Real Madrid in 2021-22 (five games).
- The only English player to start in a UEFA Champions League quarter-final while aged 18 or younger is Jude Bellingham (17 v Manchester City in April 2021), while Arsenal pair Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri become the only players other than Bellingham to do so here (both aged 18).
- Luka Modric has averaged 17.5 line-breaking passes per 90 in the UEFA Champions League this season; the most of any player with 500+ minutes played. Despite only playing 66 minutes against Atlético Madrid last time out, Fede Valverde (13 in 128 minutes) was the only player who made more line-breaking passes than Modric (12) on either side. (See graphic below)
- Two of the top five-ranked goalkeepers for goals prevented in the UEFA Champions League this season (based on xG on target faced, excluding OGs) could feature here, in the form of Arsenal’s David Raya (+3.7, 5th) and Real Madrid’s Thibaut Courtois (+4, 3 rd ).
Odds correct at 1425 BST (07/04/25)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.